The consumer vs. the producer economy
by New Deal democrat
The consumer vs. the producer economy
Prof. Edward Leamer wrote over a decade ago that, in a consumer led recession, first housing turns, then vehicle sales, then other consumer goods.
What do home and vehicle sales tell us now about the economy, vs. corporate profits? This post is up at Seeking Alpha.
As usual, clicking over and reading puts a penny or two in my pocket.
Uh oh. Looks like some tariff front running going on. You will likely be tearing up this post very soon.
Tell me when housing recovers from the last recession and I’ll consider its usefulness as a predictor for the next one.There have been too many structural changes to the economy. People don’t have money for housing.
It also helps to remember that high earners recover from recessions more quickly than those less well paid. The trickle down lag has grown over the past several cycles. While the aggregate looks good, most Americans are just starting to see a recovery from the crash a decade ago. That makes it much harder to tell when the whole thing is ready to fall apart.