Data, however, is only as good as its assumptions, and the overall trend is well worth a glance. (Note: I took the 2013-2017 data from BC professor (and director of their Center for Retirement Research) Alicia H. Munnell’s Table 1 here.
|Year of Trustees Report:||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017||2018||2019|
|First year outgo exceeded income excluding interest||2010||2010||2010||2010||2010||2010||2010|
|First year outgo projected to exceed income including interest||2021||2020||2020||2020||2021||2018||2020|
|Year trust fund assets are projected to be exhausted||2033||2033||2034||2034||2034||2034||2035|
Note that last year’s projection that 2018 would have a funding shortfall turned out to be so incorrect that this year’s report didn’t even pretend there would be excessive demand until next year.* Also note that, despite a relatively anemic recovery in the labor force, the projection “we’re out of funds” date keeps getting extended, though not so much as it did pre-Tepid Depression years.
More coming up. As usual, the report is only so good as its data assumptions and there are some interesting assumptions made.
*Part of this, as Henry Aaron noted Tuesday, is that the Disability portion of SSDI has declined precipitously from projections.