Who? What? Where?
Long a headliner in the news, Iran has disappeared from the headlines, and even the inside pages. It has largely disappeared from the news, after being the big headline for a long time. This is probably good for Iran, despite its many problems.
I have made a big effort to find out its current economic status. The little data out there seems to suggest that not much is happening. GDP had been falling in the aftermath of the US withdrawal from the JCPOA nuclear agreement, which Iran had and continues to adhere to, with the official support of the official signatories, even as private companies in many of them against their governments, have pulled back from dealing with Iran under US pressure. But that is old news.
The US withdrawal from the JCPOA was provocative, and pushed many companies such as France’s Total to withdraw from dealing with Iran, along with many others. This satisfied a campaign promise of Trump’s, even as he has been lying on a 15 per day rate recently according to recent reports.
About the time of the US’s withdrawal over a half year ago, there were many reports of having a collapsing economy. There were many reports of demonstrations against the government in hardline Islamist regions over the troubled economy. Somehow these reports seem to have stopped, although I would not rule out that some may still be happening. But the world is not hearing of them, and I do not think this is due to some increased level of Iranian suppression.
No, I think Iran has halted its economic decline, not that things are great. This post is partly triggered by talking to a good friend recently returned from Iran who reports that while things are expensive, most goods are available and the economy seems to be more or less stable.
Despite this supposed intense push by the US to harm the Iranian economy, parts of that certainly in place, without publicity US policy has recently gone the other way, not so vigorously harming the Iranian economy. For starters we have that the US gave “temporary” exemptions from the renewed US sanctions against nations importing Iranian oil for 8 major such importers. The upshot is not all that much of a reduction of such exports from Iran, an obviously crucial factor.
Then we have more recent subtle pro-Iranian decisions, most importantly Trump’s announcement of US removing troops from Syria. This helps Iran, even if the removal is slowed down as seems likely. We also have SecState Pompeo pressuring the Saudis to end their boycott against Qatar, which has retained both political and economic relations with Iran, not to mention having just whupped Saudi Arabia in soccer 2-0.
So, we, or at least I, do not know what precisely is going on inside Iran, long a highly repressive regime, despite its facade ofs pseudo-democracy. They have been continuing to adhere to the JCPOA nuclear deal, even as recent reports have them possibly setting up increased uranium enrichment facilities and activities. While there have been many demos against the government over the troubled economy, it seems that these have slowed down, or at least reporting of them has.
The US does not determine all that happens in Iran, but it seems that currently the US has an inconsistent verging on incoherent policy regarding Iran. But for Iran, this turn from full hostility, combined with a possible upturn in world oil prices, may explain an unreported stabilization in Iran.
Barkley Rosser
Probably because the “reports” of unrest were more MSM BS–or Iran managed to root out and arrest all of the CIA provocateurs who were “meddling” in Iranian politics.
Karl,
I think you are too optimistic. And you should probably talk about CIA-Mossad-MI6 provocateurs not so much about CIA provocateurs. Or, more correctly, foreign interests controlled disaffected strata of the population.
The meddling will continue, and money are flowing to destabilize the Iranian government and induce the “regime change” via yet another color revolution. So it remains to be seen if mullahs are vigilant enough and not “fossilized” like the USSR leadership was ( if we view the USSR as an example of yet another theocratic regime) to withstand this attack. BTW Soviet nomenklatura was simply bought by the same alliance of CIA-Mossad-MI6 and the lure of getting the lion share of privatized resources of the country.
I am sure that any drop in the standard of living due to sanctions will be exploited to the fullest extent possible to generate unrest and possibly the regime change.
Please note the success of recent neoliberal counter-revolutions in Argentina and Brazil against more progressive governments. That means that chances for neoliberal counter-revolution in Iran are probably non-zero, even though neoliberal ideology was discredited in 2008 and is sustained only pure power of neoliberal propaganda machine, which makes Third Reich propaganda look pretty amateurish in comparison.
If we view neoliberalism as “Trotskyism for the rich” (financial elites of the world unite) it is clear that it has staying power. And that means that the “Permanent Neoliberal Revolution” in best Trotskyite tradition will continue.
.
Also, if you have a country in which the population grows fast and the standard of living gradually deteriorates as was the case in many Arab countries before the Arab spring, you can always find enough people to support a color revolution against the current government. It is so easy to exploit the legitimate grievances of the population. if you have money to pay for a cadre of “professional revolutionaries” (students are very lucrative target here), and control at least a part of MSM.
The fact that installed after the color revolution puppets will be much worse, and that looting of natural resources will be the natural result, will be realized by the strata of population which had driven the color to its success only later. In other words, the promises of EU standard of living if you get rid of mullahs is a very successful social mousetrap like it was in Ukraine before that.
Just look at the drop of that standard of living in Ukraine after the EuroMaydan color revolution (sponsored by Nuland and friends)
Also, any theocratic regime has elements of instability within itself. At some point, people became tired of regimes driven by religious dogma. As soon as the CIA-Mossad-Mi6 alliance can provoke some ethnic group on insurrection all bets are off.
I think the power of the neoliberal center (US+EU) to stage color revolution so far remains largely intact.
There was a suicide bombing 6 Dec 18 near Chabahar, Iran, an Indian run (financed) port that will link into Afghanistan and on up the east side of the Caspian, and an alternate route to One Band one road (OBOR). The US has relieved India of sanctions regarding Chabahar, which competes with Gwadar in Pakistan for access to China’s OBOR. In this regard to court India and to snub OBOR the US would side with Iran..
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-12/07/c_137657495.htm
There have been reports of Saudi support for Baluch separatists, the area being inhabited with a Baluch faction.
There had been a similar attack a couple of years ago also attributed to foreign meddling.
Baluchs live in the area overlapping Pakistan and East Iran. The area was ceded to the two countries by the Sultan of Oman, who did not want to keep his holdings on the north side of the Arabian Sea.
In the eastern part of Iran the US including associates of McCain and Bolton have entertained MEK, which represents a tiny minority within Iran. MEK would be a terror group on the lines of HTS but it does US bidding like HTS, so the US supports Salafi terror groups despite the blithe about GWOT.
In terms of Iran crude oil there are numerous waivers to US sanctions.
The Iranian authorities are using the foreign aggression to good advantage. All the Ayatollahs need do is say: “look at what the outsiders did to Libya”.
Note to Run,
I have edited the original on Econospeak to get rid of typos. Please use it.
Ilsm,
This has all been going on for a long time, same old same old. I am more interested now in the reactions to Trump’s renewed sanctions, which seem to have quieted down for whatever reasons.
Likbez,
I rate the probability of a revolt by one of Iran’s minority ethnic groups triggering a color revolution as extremely low. If there is a revolution that overthrows the ruling regime, it will come from the majority ethnic Persians. But as of right now that does not look too likely.
Hi Iism.
“The Iranian authorities are using the foreign aggression to good advantage. All the Ayatollahs need do is say: “look at what the outsiders did to Libya”.
Theoretically, yes. Practically, I am skeptical.
Did not Ukraine happened after Libya?
Did not Syria happened after Libya?
Looks like people are very easily deceived with “EU standard of living tomorrow” carrot. Sad but true.
Also all you need for the success of the color revolution is a sizable militant armed gang in the capital,. discretization of the current government (corruption charges work wonders, as if the next government will be less corrupt), and the passivity of law enforcement (which probably can be bought).
The danger of the “illusion of invincibility” for mullahs is considerable.
Such things as color revolutions are mostly about deception of the population with some “carrot” and blackmail of the current government. British historically were real masters of this art.
People are gullible.
Ilsm and Likbez,
Libya was being bombed by UK and France with active support of US and the Arab League. Nobody bombed Ukraine until the Russians invaded eastern provinces, and while Victoria Nuland’s activities were not helpful, believing they caused the Maidan uprising is simply believing Putin propaganda. Syria is more complicated, but note that unlike in Libya, there has not been anything like the concerted international opposition to Assad there was to Qaddafi, with Russia in particular providing crucial support for him.
Regarding Iran, there was an attempted “color revolution” during the presidential election in 2009, which h was crushed. It was supposed to be green and had support from abroad. It was based in secular groups in big cities, especially Tehran. This contrasts with the more recent protests over economic conditions and corruption that started in pro-theocratic smaller cities and towns, initially with the support of hardline oppoenents of the Rouhani regime, although they stopped supporting it when the protests went to other cities as well and became focused on corruption, which they are deeply guilty of with their control of the bonyads. The claim that they were triggered by outsiders looks very weak, even if outsiders may have supported them. In any case, they seem to have gone quiet.
Barkley,
This is off-topic, but for the sake of clarity.
That’s true. But that’s not the whole truth. She definitely served as a catalyst for the violent coup. Yanukovich was a corrupt neoliberal President with popularity in single digits (with Biden as the key Mentor and Manafort as the key election advisor), although probably less corrupt then Poroshenko, who eventually succeeded him (and also now has ratings in low teens). In six months or so he would be gone. And Ukraine probably would keep Crimea and avoid Donbass war.
BTW Ukraine was moving apart from Russia since independence, and that process would continue and get to somewhat similar results without such losses.
By encouraging radical part of Ukrainian nationalists and helping to stage an armed coup d’état using Western Ukrainian nationalists as a ram, Nuland and Co opened the Pandora box. The process of drifting from Russian influence was forcefully sped up and led to the loss of Crimea and civil war in Donbass.
So while US policy was to weaken Russia using Ukrainian nationalists (the policy which started after WWII) and the EU wanted to monopolize Ukrainian markets and push out Russia (“Drang Nah Osten” in neoliberal form) the net result was plunging Ukrainian population into African style poverty ($2 a day or so).
The arrogance and incompetence of the US neocons have no boundaries. I would recommend to you Stephen Cohen recent book “War with Russia: From Putin & Ukraine to Trump & Russiagate.” He is a pretty keen observer of the events in the region.
Or much older but still excellent UK book: America and the Imperialism of Ignorance: US Foreign Policy Since 1945 by Andrew Alexander ( Andrew Alexander was a senior journalist for the Daily Mail. He died in 2015. )
The American foreign policy approach proved to be wretchedly consistent. I would like to see the US State Department neocons hanging from Khreshchatik (the main street in Kiev) lamp posts ;-).
They did great damage to Ukraine and the USA. And probably deserve some punishment, not sinecures in think tanks like Nuland got.
With Russia fully rearmed and still simmering with anger from humiliation and economic plunder organized by Clinton administration (in this sense Hillary was right — there is Russian revanchism; she just did not understand that it, for now, is suppressed by Putin),
There are now just two possibilities: (1) “God protects Fools, Children, and the United States of America” or (2) “The US lemmings led by neocons jump from the cliff.”
Neocons like to blackmail Putin using it as the scapegoat, but they do not understand that the person who will replace Putin might be not some Yeltsin type neoliberal, ready to sell his country and people, but a hardcore nationalist spoiling for a fight.
Then what? Thermonuclear WWIII and wiping out both the USA and Russia from the map?
I hate the stupidity and arrogance of the US neocons like Bill Kristol or Max Boot BTW 99% of them are chickenhawks. For the USA to survive and prosper they need to be removed from Washington and exiled to Alaska, or even farther North. But this is clearly impossible as they are, de-facto, paid lobbyists of MIC, a corrupt stooges, not some ideological lunatics (many of them do have a pretty decent IQ)
Very depressing situation.
Likbez,
This will be my only post on this thread on Russia and Ukraine, this thread being about Iran. Your post is seriously wrong on many points. For starters, the idea that the Maidan uprising would not have happened or been successful is just rank nonsense of the worst and most ignorant sort, and the idea that it justifies Russia militarily seizing Crimea and then annexing it, not to mention organizing the uprisings in Donbass is even worse. Let me ask you: would the fact that Putin has been vigorously supporting neo-fascists in Hungary, Austria, France, and Germany, among other nations, justify Germany reannexing the Kaliningrad salient from Russia? Or, if you think Germany does not deserve it, how about Poland, which suffered a substantial net loss of territory at the end of WW II ti Soviet annexations?
In any case, your pathetic drooling about Ukraine does not begin to support your silly claim that demonstrations in Iran over economic conditions and corruption in Iran only happened because of outside forces is simply ridiculous dreck. Again, those were initiated with the support of the hardline ayatollahs to damage the Rouhani government, although indeed objectively the result of Trump’s policies regarding Iran strengthen those repressive and reactionary forces.
Meant to that last post, “would not have been successful without the support of US neocons…”