This is a situation that may be on the verge of disappearing and more or less normalizing, but over the last couple of months US bond markets have exhibited a weird phenomenon of non-monotonicity. It has been even weirder than what we saw during the period of negative nominal interest rates, when what we saw was interest rates on US treasury securities fell from the shortest time horizon to a low usually around the two-year time horizon, with the pattern then reverting to its usual upward slope. What has been going on recently has been a pattern of rates initially rising with the time horizon in the normal pattern, then turning around and declining, then turning around yet again and rising again. I do not know what to make of any of this. I exhibit it in a table below for the three days, January 2, January 10, and January 18 of this year.
3 mo. 1 yr. 2 yr. 3 yr. 5 yr. 10 yr. 30 yr.
1/2/19 2.42 2.60 2.50 2.47 2.49 2.66 2.97
1/10/19 2.43 2.59 2.56 2.54 2.56 2.74 3.06
1/18/19 2.41 2.60 2.62 2.60 2.62 2.79 3.09
So, at the beginning of the year the rates rose from 3 months to 1 year, with rates declining to 3 years, and then rising after that. The same pattern was still holding on January 10. On January 18 things were somewhat more normalized with the mid-range decline being a decline from the 2 year to 3 year range, but then reversing to rise in the normal way after that.