Final thoughts on the 2018 midterms
Final thoughts on the 2018 midterms
Here are six takeaways from last night’s results:
1. It *was* a wave election in the popular vote, but it was blunted by gerrymandering:
Here’s a tweet by Sam Wang:
Even though Democrats won the popular vote by 9.2%, they only eked out 12 seats over a majority, and came about 4 seats short of Nate Silver’s median projection:
By contrast, in 2010, a smaller vote advantage led to a 63 seat gain for the GOP.
2. The Senate races were effectively nationalized
Here’s a current map of the state of the Senate (except we know Feinstein won re-election in California):
With the exception of Joe Manchin in West Virginia, all of the incumbent Democratic Senators in red states either lost, or are slightly behind, in their races. The blue vs. red re-alignment is nearly complete in the Senate. This is going to be an ongoing problem if the GOP remains the party of old white rural people, since rural states are vastly over-represented in the Senate.
3. Governorships were *not* nationalized, although the upper midwest returned “home” to the Democrats
Three of the New England staes, plus Maryland, elected GOP governors. Meanwhile Wisconsin, Michigan, and Illinois returned to Democratic governors.
I expect the true 2020 battlegrounds to be the 3 “blue wall” states that have possibly returned to the fold, plus North Carolina, if that state’s Supreme Court, now controlled by Democrats, throws out the GOP’s gerrymander on state Constitutional grounds.
4. Florida is red. Virginia is blue.
Democrats keep losing close races in Florida, because the influx of old, white retirees from the midwest to the Gulf coast outweighs the growth of the minority vote. It’s possible that felon re-enfranchisement will make up the difference, but I’m not holding my breath.
Meanwhile the Democrats have both Senate seats, the Governorship, and 3 more House seats in Virginia. Last year they roared back to a tie (minus one vote!) in VA’s lower state house. If they pick up the upper chamber next rear, Virginia’s re-alignment will be complete.
5. White voters lie about their intentions when an African-American candidate is running.
In both Florida and Georgia, the black candidate came in 3%-5% under their polling. I do not believe that was an accident.
6. Finally, beware the lame duck “smash and grab”
Like jewel thieves making a quick getaway, I expect the GOP to inflict as much damage as possible on the budget, Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, Obamacare, and anything else they can get their hands on, between now and December 31, figuring that voters will forget by 2020. It’s going to be bad, so brace yourself.
And now, back to the boring economy.
“Democrats keep losing close races in Florida, because the influx of old, white retirees from the midwest to the Gulf coast outweighs the growth of the minority vote.”
And that is the same thing in AZ, though it is changing slowly but surely.
I just do not get the seniors in FL voting red while living on SS and Medicare.
My concern overall going forward is our news media. I can’t help think they will report the investigations as a fight between the two parties essentially diminishing to the image of 2 children that just can’t get along. They will still promote the both sides framing.
If the media does not emphasize that what the Dems are doing via investigations as being the proper course of action for the House as required by the Constitution and the ideal/ideology of rule of law and then promote any criminal findings as being criminal implying the next course of action which is prosecution such that a large minority of the Repub voters can’t deny it and come to support it then we’ll see a status quo regarding the character of Republicans and the resultant electoral action.
What’s SS and Medicare have to do with it?
There is not a single gop voter in the country who thinks the GOP is going to change their SS or Medicare. I understand that is one of the GOP’s main goals, but their voters do not believe it as their news sources do not tell them the truth.
Unless of course it is to take SS and Medicare away from people of color who do not deserve it, that they’ll believe.
And that’s the reason those voters always vote GOP.
As best I can tell, the election demonstrates that you can not reason with the tribalists and that moderate Democrats have no place in red states just like moderate Republicans have no place in blue states. You will never convince the racists in red states to vote for a Democrat based on their economic interests, patriotism, anti-corruption etc. The only way you can win is by out turning them out and that means energizing your base. McCaskill, Nelson and Donnelly learned that lesson last night.
EMichael: There is not a single gop voter in the country who thinks the GOP is going to change their SS or Medicare.
Exactly my point. What did you think I was saying?
How can you be surviving on such programs and not see the ones you vote for are out to eliminate what it is you survive on? But let me add this. I have relatives, who was (has passed do to cancer) living off their USAF pension touring the US in their motor home and of course benefiting from the health insurance while knocking government. Their entire married life was dependent on the government. My sister tried to help them see their hypocrisy. She could not succeed.
Daniel:
My young Marine nephew kind of said the same thing when he claimed people should not be living off the government. Even though he was in the service, I had to point out to him the hypocrisy of his beliefs.
I believe I understand your point, they do not believe the GOP is trying and/or wants to “eliminate what it is you survive on”. In their opinion, that is Fake News.
Yeah, I’m sure that you”re right about the angry lame ducks. The only limits are the fact that those that will remain want to get re-elected two years from now.
The Senate race was due to “soft” 65+ older undecideds going to the Republicans while model data overestimated democratic turnout in strong red leaning states like Missouri and Indiana to nominal Republican states like Ohio or Florida. That always leads toward problems with the polling. During Presidential years like 2012 and a coattails guy like Obama, they may have been able to win. Nelson(who is trying to Dixiecrat his way to a win as we speak) almost for certain.
I live in Virginia–it isn’t “blue,” politics here have become a wholly owned subsidiary of the war contractors who initially viewed Trump’s somewhat anti-interventionist rhetoric as a potential threat to the gravy train. If tomorrow those death merchants start to think that it would be to their advantage to change sides, Virginia will easily flip–except for the odious Mark Warner, who is SO purple that the red often peaks through.
Second point–what is going to stop Trump from issuing Executive Orders after December 31st? That’s how he governs.
The GOP could have easily trashed the big Democratic domestic programs the past two years but realized doing so would be political suicide. So they settled for their massive tax cut, which will slowly starve those programs anyway. Trump got want he REALLY wanted–an expanded Senate majority so he can appoint all the judges and justices he wants and have them sail through.
Budgets and bills start in the House. Who is going to starve who?
@Run–if I could I’d bet you the next Pentagon war spending bill will pass nearly unanimously. The Dems won’t starve the rest of the government because then they’d be starving their own constituencies. Not very smart politics, is it?