Today, President Trump’s promised abjuration of President Obama’s hard-negotiated nuclear deal with Iran,the JCPOA, jointly agreed with Russia, China, UK, France, Germany, the EU, and the Security Council of the United Nations. All parties agree that Iran has held to the agreement, so Trump’s move is completely internationally illegal. His move is supported by exactly four other nations on the planet, and only them: Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain, a group that contains about 0.5% of the world’s population. Of course the percentage rises by a couple of percent when we add Trump supporters who applaud him keeping a campaign promise, even though most of them have no idea what this is really all about.
It is clear that Trump has mostly done this to undo something Obama did, although he also very much likes pleasing the leaders of three of those nations,who have managed to get his ear. But it is not even obvious that the undoing of this agreement will actually help these nations, even though they clearly think so. The least important of them, Bahrain, might get a slight gain given that it is a majority Shia nation ruled by an oppressive Sunni elite. Maybe putting Iran under economic pressure will reduced Iranian support for restive Bahraini Shia. But then, maybe the Iranians will respond by increasing their support. Both the KSA and UAE view themselves as jousting with Iran in the Persian Gulf, although Iran has never invaded or militarily threatened either. They were not in danger, so they will not be better off. of course, the Saudis blame Iran for the success of the Houthi rebels in Yemen, where the Saudis have been heavily bombing for three years, killing many civilians. But most serious sources say that the Iranians support for the Houthis has been minimal in material terms, if not nonexistent. But given how low that is, even a worsened economic situation in Iran seems unlikely to make them halt that minimum aid, and mostly the Saudis are scapegoating the Iranians for their failure to defeat the Houthis.
As for Israel, their main concern seems to be Iranian support for Hezbollah in Lebanon (and Syria) and Hamas in Gaza, although Hamas is a Sunni group. Based on Trump’s own statement yesterday, these are the main things he seems to be concerned about. He wants Iranian support for those groups reduced. Maybe that will happen, but while in the past Hezbollah did carry out terrorist actiffset ons in many places (Buenos Aires, for example), it is a long time since describing them as “terrorist” has been at all accurate. They have long since become part of the ruling coalition in Lebanon. They have been tamed, but the Israelisare very unhappy that they were unable to outright defeat Hezbollah the last time they invaded Lebanon. But even if Iranian aid to them is reduced, it is unlikely that that would make much difference to an outcome id they were to reinvade Lebanon. And it should be kept in mind that prior to the 1982 Israeli invasion the Lebanese Shia were largely sympathetic to Israel, and there was no Hezbollah. Just as with Hamas that they encouraged to offset the more moderate PLO, so the Israelis are themselves responsible for the very existence of Hezbollah.
Now it must be recognized that Trump’s reimposition of economic sanctions will have an impact on Iran. Even though none of the other nations in the JCPOA support Trump’s move, his threat to ban any company violating the sanctions from operating in the US is forcing some major European companies to leave Iran if they have much larger dealings in the US, even if their governments disagee with their moves. The most prominent companies leaving Iran now are Total and Peugeot from France and Siemens from Germany, although apparently some smaller companies with little business in the US will continue. Another round of sanctions in November will target Iranian oil exports, although there is reason to believe many nations buying oil from Iran will continue to do so then. Nevertheless, for all its illegality, Trump’s reimposition of sanctions will almost certainly damage the already struggling Iranian economy, with demonstrations against the regime periodically breaking out there.
Of course it would appear that what Trump and such aides as John Bolton and Mike Pompeo want, as well as the leaderships of the four nations listed above,is “regime change” in Iran. The short run reaction so far has been a rise in support for the moderate Rouhani government by its hardline opponents. As it is, the most likely outcome if the weakening economy weakens political support for the government will not be regime change but simply a takeover by the hardliners. This group contains many who never supported the JCPOA, and they may well then leave it and return to enriching uranium to a high level. This will increase the national security of any of those four nations? That it would not is seen by the support for the JCPOA given publicly by many retrired Israeli military and intelligence figures.
Needless to say, there has been heightened warlike rhetoric between Iranian and US leaders.I regret that Rouhani felt he had to indulge in the first round of this. Probably this is all just chest thumping noise, but it is clear that there are some among those four nations as well as in the US who would like the US to either bomb Iran or invade it. Given how much larger and more powerful it is than Iraq under Saddam Hussein, this looks extremely dangerous, in light of what a disaster the invasion of Iraq turned out to be. Of course, given that Iran is not involved in developing nuclear weapons and has remained in accord with the JCPOA, there is no such justification for such an invasion, which would probably end up creating major problems for the Gulf nations, if not Israel, although I think the Saudi leadership is too egomaniacally stupid and incompetent to figure this out.
Yet another irony is that if either through triggering some kind of successful democratic uprising that would overthrow the Islamic regime, or if one were to be installed a la Iraq after a “successful” invasion, this regime would demand to have civilian nuclear power, which is overwhelmingly supported by the Iranian population (although maybe aid to Hezbollah and Hamas would end). The opposition Greens, who were violently suppressed in 2009, supported civilian nuclear power. Iran has been working for it since Eisenhower initially provided US support for it in Iran to the Shah. In the end the outcome in terms of the nuclear issue, after who knows how much cost in lives and material, would be something like what we had with the JCPOA,a carefully monitored and controlled civilian nuclear program. But it is clear that Trump is not even thinking about any part of this aspect of the matter, so focused is he on scoring short run political points and pleasing a narrow set of allies against the vast majority of world opinion, as well as an agreement made by the US government.
I see little prospect this will end well and serious danger this could lead to a seriously bad outcome. I have said it before, and I say it again: abrogating the JCPOA with Iran is by far Donald J. Trump’s worst foreign policy mistake, even as few Americans realize it yet.
Barkley Rosser
“It is clear that Trump has mostly done this to undo something Obama did, although he also very much likes pleasing the leaders of three of those nations,who have managed to get his ear.”
Could there be a 3rd motive? This move makes John Bolton very happy and we know Bolton wants “regime change” especially if that means we get involved in another stupid war. After all – defense related stocks will soar!
Well the problem was that the JCPOA was never ratified as a treaty. This was because an obstructionist Republican congress was never going to ratify ANY agreement that Obama could have gotten with Iran. The domestic and international (Israeli and Saudi) politics meant that nothing short of a “perfect” agreement would have been ratified. So the US obligation was only done through an executive order. Therefore it could just as easily be undone with an executive order.
Illegal? Yeah, but so was invading Iraq, bombing Syria, placing troops in Syria, meddling in the 1996 Russian election, killing a half million Iraqi children via sanctions, bombing Serbia, opening a Gulag in Cuba, torturing prisoners, drone assassinations, spying on American citizens, lying to Congress about spying on American citizens, the list goes on and on.
Let’s not act like Trump is an outlier just because he’s undoing one of the very few not completely evil acts of his feckless predecessor.
Leave it to Karl to say it is great as all politicians do it. Don’t think so Karl.
“Not completely evil acts. . . “? Not evil at all; in fact, positively good!
Obama/Kerry were the outliers in US actions toward Iran.
The US has always been at war with Iran since the Shia tossed the CIA imposed Shah, a defeat of royals which scares the Emirs and al Saud family to this day.
July 1988 a US Navy air defense cruiser, Ticonderoga class, blasted an Iran airliner out of the sky using the then shiny new aegis air defense system. No such uproar like Ukraine shooting down one of their own in 2014.
I recall some of the effort to US flag Kuwaiti tankers, the oil platform skirmishes, etc.
The US has always been at war with Iran, at least the Iran not run by a US puppet.
The Saud family is very conscious of the fact that Iran is the most homogenous state in the Gulf, numbers more than twice the population of the Arabian Peninsula and general education levels far exceed the peninsula.
Further Iran sits on the north shoulder of the Hormuz. Iran is close enough to the Caspian to shutter any pipeline out to the Mediterranean from the Caucasus. It has some serious geography as well as demography on its side. Add to Iran population that 2/3 of the people in the kluge called Iraq are Shia.
My observation about Hizbolah and Israel: the last IDF invasion Hizbolah showed they were no easier to subdue than the Viet Cong in an asymmetric conflict.
OBOR, as well as a Russo Indian sideline go through Iran.
Iran is scary to the region Iran has a lot more going for it than North Korea and has no need for nuclear weapons.
The propagandists call for regime change with no concern for the suffering and reversal of self determination for 80 million people.
US busts up countries in the name of regime change. Far less morality than legality.
Well, in 2015, Putin got very nervous about the US getting closer to Iran, or at least not so far away. Bibi didn’t like that either. So, is not hard to understand why the 45th is acting the way he is acting. However, and changing the subject, but not too much…
As soon as I read the news about the human rights activists imprisoned in Saudi Arabia, bravely denounced by the Canadian ambassador Dennis Horak; I said to myself: “I knew that all this about being a more progressive and inclusive nation, and being happy that women drive and vote was a pure hogwash.” Now, what I never imagined was that the Saudis would suspend flights to Canada, stop all new business and investments in our neighboring country and withdraw all their students from Canadian schools. Is this really caused only by Horak’s tweet? What are the implications for the local and regional economy? Does this movement have anything to do with Iran, and the sanctions it is imposing on Trump’s Republican government? I just read that the US will not take sides in this feud, which seems strange since Canada is our ally, our friend next door. I am a very uneducated person regarding these matters and I always come to AB to clarify myself in these kinds of matters … so please, someone, help me to better understand what is happening. Thank you
…I apologize for my bad English…I meant to say: Does this movement has anything to do with the sanctions against Iran that Trump’s Republican government is imposing?….
Karl,
Yes, all that is true, but those previous matters did not involve nuclear weapons or such a blatant in your face violation of a major international agreement.
ilsm,
Iran is not all that homogeneous. The Persian ethnic group is only 60% of the population, and there are Christians, Jews, and even Zoroastrians in the population.
Ines,
Putin was not upset at all about US getting friendlier with Iran. Russia a part of the agreement and fully supporting it. This is an issue where Putin and Trump do not see eye to eye. Indeed, Russian foreign minister Lavrov played a crucial role in finalizing the negotiation for the agreement. OTOH, yes, Bibi not happy about the deal and probably its worst international enemy.
Mr. Rosser, thank you so much for your reply.
I think is all tangled as usual regarding the international interests in the Middle East. When Trump withdrew from Iran Deal, it occurred to me that perhaps Putin could profit, not economically but politically, playing the good/reliable guy with our “friends”. To alienate the US from its allies is something, I believe, that Putin is v interested in.
However, I can’t wait until oil, and fossil fuels are left behind, and green renewable energies take over! Everything is going to be better for everyone!
Roger and then Roger Greenberg . . . Akiva and now the nanny?
@pgl
Obama supporters were very fond of supporting him by saying that “Bush did it first.” That defense always grated on me, as does defense of Trump by saying “Obama did it first.” If my father committed murder it would not give me a free pass to commit murder.
@Jim A
Apparently only some executive orders can be undone by executive orders. A court recently ruled that Trump could not issue an executive order overturning Obama’s executive order creating DACA.
Yes, Akiva is another email address I use. I am a female though, I started using Roger Greenberg (which is obviously taken from the movie) when I tried to write on Medium…I sadly realized I was read more as a male 🙁 however, like many of you I don’t like to give up my real name, Inés Fourcade is my mother’s name.
Bill, thanks for your encouraging words before, I truly appreciate, and I didn’t mean to come out as deceptive.
Ines:
I wanted to warn you as I have some others who have been posing as some of our regular posters. So I ban them. Your words and questions are accepted here. We do not make exception due to gender, ethnicity, or other identifying characteristics. Just be yourself.
Bill H.,
When I spoke of illegality, I should have made it clear that I was speaking of international law, not US law. Of course, Trump does not give a whatever about international law, but this is most certainly a violation of it, big time.
Waiting for CIA/outside fomented civil violence to draw a government “crack down” top excuse more insurgent support as in Syria from 2011. The interventionists will call it rebellion and civil war……..
While Geraldo Rivera speaks truth, a rare commodity in any media, at Fox News:
“I think that our entire policy vis-à-vis Iran is bankrupt,” Rivera said on Fox’s The Five. “I think that we have totally picked the wrong enemy in the Middle East. In my experience in decades of war reporting, the nuisance, the evil doer, is Saudi Arabia. It was the Saudi Arabians who were the 9/11 hijackers. They’re ISIS, they’re al-Qaeda, they’re al-Shabaab, it’s the Sunni Saudi Arabians who are the real problem. The Iranians, I believe we can do business with them. They’re the sheiks of Rodeo Drive in southern California. They’re the Persians.”
@Barkley,
My thinking on “homogenous” referred to the part of Islam in Iran which is mostly Shiite ~90%.
While Iraq is somewhere close to 70% Shiite mainly of Arab ethnicity, which is why the US “hopes” Quds won’t stay long to help now permanent Shiite militia.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-25434060