Let me say that if Donald Trump is able to finalize a serious agreement in Korea that brings an official end to the war there as well as establishing some kind of peaceful settlement in general that leads to some sort of mutually acceptable arrangement between the two Koreas that maintains a peaceful situation for some reasonably lengthy time into the future, pretty much irrespective of the exact details, I shall applaud. I shall not even hold my nose if somehow he gets the Nobel Peace Prize for it, as advocated by ROK president Moon Jae-in, although it is the latter who is the far more deserving recipient. But maybe such an award would have several recipients for it, if it happens. A few observations in any case.
I suspect that the importance of Trump’s loud sabre-rattling has been exaggerated, certainly in the US media, but I shall not say it has played no part. But certainly important has been the substantial heightening of economic sanctions that came in over the past year as DPRK president Kim Jong-un carried out a series of major nuclear weapons and missile tests, culminating with a claim of testing an H-bomb and obtaining a sufficient nuclear weapons stache for deterrent purposes. Most important in this was China finally enforcing much stricter economic sanctions on the DPRK, either out of trying to please Trump, or out of increasing annoyance with Kim, or more likely a combination of both. As it is, Kim visited Beijing (by train) just before announcing his willingness to visit the ROK, and in fact China has been easing the economic sanctions since then. Without doubt this played a huge role, if not all that widely acknowledged, and even as all along pretty much everybody said that DPRK would not act until China put the economic squeeze on, and it finally did.
I agree with your thoughts including holding my nose about Trump getting a Nobel Peace Prize, but I think what is really going on is the ceding of east Asia to China. I think it was going to happen anyway, but Trump bowing out of TPP hastened it and everyone who matters in that part of the world knows it. If I am in South Korea I am going to throw my lot with China rather than the U.S. particularly when the United States President and National Security Adviser talk about preemptive first strikes and pulling the troops. China wants the U.S. troops out of Korea and wants the U.S. to back off on the South China Sea. The North denuclearizes–not all the way but significantly–the U.S. withdraws most of the troops in Korea, China agrees to defend South Korea from North Korea–I do not know how much trade there is but China welcomes capitalist trading partners and South Korea is a heck of a lot more valuable trading partner than the North–and Kim Jong un gets aid from the South as well as China and gets to stay in power for the rest of his miserable life. To Trump’s credit, he is willing to cede east Asia to China, but whether he or anyone in his administration can get anything for doing so remains to be seen. The bottom line is that Trump has failed at everything he has ever done except self promotion, so I see us giving China everything it wants and getting nothing but cessation of nuclear and missle testing by the North in return. Trump will tell his base that he is a genius, but later historians will point to his presidency as the time when U.S. influence in the world plummeted. Perhaps a good thing, but it does leave a vacuum which is unlikely to be filled with freedom loving democracies.
Nominating the leader of the police force of the “liberal” world order did not work out so well for small countries in the Middle East and West Africa.
Terry,
China has been South Korea’s top trading partner for some time, although the South Koreans are less than happy about that. For about a year starting in 2016 the Chinese boycotted many South Korean goods because they did not like South Korea accepting the US anti-ballistic missile THAAD shield. Traditionally for hundreds of years Korea maintained de facto independence, but officially acknowledged the overlordship of the Chinese emperor. I think they have been forced back into something like that now, but this is not something they are at all pleased about.
Ilsm,
Quite a few US presidents have been nominated for, and some have received, the Peace Nobel, as di Henry Kissinger. So I am not sure which one you are referring to in particular.
I was referring to Obama*, presiding over sodomizing Qaddafi and ongoing Libyan tragedy, and the messes in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Afghanistan…..
Kissinger getting “it” long ago put the process open to contempt the only saving was not awarding it to al Qaeda propagandists masquerading as Syrian Civil Defense.
Trump is same choice as Kissinger, and Obama. That is not saying anything good for the “committee”.
How the “white helmets got nominated is as troubling as not finding any of white helmets to talk to even the regime change propagandists of the US/UK press in Douma after Jaish al Islam immigrants were bussed to Idlib.
I am not sure why China is worked up over THAAD, it has limited utility, even if it all the “connections” worked on cue. What Patton said about defenses and what USAF TAC doctrine said about destroying fighter aircraft.
*Obama had a lot of us fooled as well.
Yes, the Obama award was embarrassing simply for his having done nothing to deserve it when he got it. Much of his Middle East policy certainly became a botch, although I applaud his Iran nuclear deal, whose value we may come to appreciate even more if Trump goes and blows it up, as he seems to be heading towards, although maybe yet again he will pull back from that brink at the last minute.