One reason not to get excited about the last week’s stock market swoon is that it isn’t being confirmed by any other short term leading indicators. Most significantly, jobless claims.
The 4 week moving average of new jobless claims has fallen below 225,000. This is yet another 40 year record low. In fact, with the exception of six weeks in the early 1970s, it’s a new 50 year low.
And adjusted for population growth, it is a new all-time low.
As a practical matter, virtually nobody is getting laid off. This is not an economy that is about to roll over.