- +228,000 jobs added
- U3 unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%
- U6 underemployment rate rose +0.1% from 7.9% to 8.0%
- Not in Labor Force, but Want a Job Now: rose +53,000 from 5.175 million to 5.238 million
- Part time for economic reasons: rose +48,000 from 4.753 million to 4.801 million
- Employment/population ratio ages 25-54: rose +0.2% from 78.8% to 79.0%
- Average Weekly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel: rose +$.0.5 from a downwardly revised $22.19 to $22.24, up +2.4% YoY. (Note: you may be reading different information about wages elsewhere. They are citing average wages for all private workers. I use wages for nonsupervisory personnel, to come closer to the situation for ordinary workers.)
Trump specifically campaigned on bringing back manufacturing and mining jobs. Is he keeping this promise?
- Manufacturing jobs rose by +31,000 for an average of +15,000 a month vs. the last seven years of Obama’s presidency in which an average of 10,300 manufacturing jobs were added each month.
- Coal mining jobs fell -400 for an average of -15 a month vs. the last seven years of Obama’s presidency in which an average of -300 jobs were lost each month
September was revised upward by +20,000. October was revised downward by -17,000, for a net change of +3,000.
- the average manufacturing workweek was unchanged at 40.9 hours. This is one of the 10 components of the LEI.
- construction jobs increased by +24,000. YoY construction jobs are up +184,000.
- temporary jobs increased by +16,300.
- the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less increased by +121,000 from 2,129,000 to 2,250,000. The post-recession low was set al,ost two years ago at 2,095,000.
- Overtime was unchanged at 3.5 hours.
- Professional and business employment (generally higher- paying jobs) increased by +46,000 and is up +548,000 YoY.
- the index of aggregate hours worked in the economy rose by 0.1% from 115.4 to 115.5.
- the index of aggregate payrolls rose by 0.4% from 171.1 to 171.7.
- the alternate jobs number contained in the more volatile household survey increased by +183,000 jobs. This represents an increase of- 1,187,000 jobs YoY vs. 2,071,000 in the establishment survey.
- Government jobs rose by 7,000.
- the overall employment to population ratio for all ages 16 and up fell -0.1% from 60.2% to 60.1 m/m and is up + 0.3% YoY.
- The labor force participation rate was unchanged m/m and is also unchanged YoY at 62.7%
So: a good report, doing nothing to alter my opinion that we are late in the expansion, and that the next recession is at grave risk of including actual wage deflation.
A few points: