Real retail sales disappoints . . . the Doomers

Real retail sales disappoints . . . the Doomers

This morning’s report on July retail sales once again belies the claim that “hard data” and “soft data” are divergent..

Not only did July come in at a strong +0.6% (+0.5% ex-autos), but June was revised up as well. Given basically non-existent inflation, this means that real retail sales made two more new records for this expansion:

In fact, real retail sales look like they are right in line with a multi-year trend.

Real retail sales per capita tend to turn down well in advance of the onset of a recession, so here is real retail sales per capita:

Again, the upward trend is continuing .

Finally, although the relationship is noisy, YoY growth in retail retail sales tends to correlate with YoY growth in employment during the ensuing months:

.So this suggests that recent stronger monthly jobs reports will continue.

Doomers will once agin have to find a new place to hang their hats.