At least 40 Republican Senators and possibly the critical 50 have decided to stand up to the lobbyists, the interest groups and big business. They are willing to vote for the Cruz amended BCRA which would not just repeal Obamacare, but also destroy US individual market health insurance. If they do so, they stand up to many of the most powerful lobbies including the AMA and the AARP (but not the NRA or AIPAC). Most importantly, they reject the very firm claims and fierce arguments of the relevant health insurance industry lobby AHIP
AHIP (and BCBS) wrote an extraodinarily passionate and detailed letter to the Senate which included “this provision will lead to far fewer, if any, coverage options for consumers who purchase their plan in the individual market. As a result, millions of more individuals will become uninsured.” Notice the future indicative (which I will never ever use). The claim is definite and made with absolute confidence. They express 100% confidence that enacting the reform (with the Cruz amendment) will cause a disaster.
The amazing thing is that AHIP is demanding that its members be regulated. They are asserting that they will damage the country if allowed ““As healthy people move to the less-regulated plans, those with significant medical needs will have no choice but to stay in the comprehensive plans, and premiums will skyrocket for people with preexisting conditions”. This correctly asserts that AHIP members will cherry pick if they are allowed to. AHIP correctly assumes that AHIP members will destroy the health insurance system for short term gain if allowed. It’s like a
serial killer cherry picker writing “stop me before I medically underwrite again”.
It is bizarre for an industry to demand regulation to protect consumers from them. The suspicion must be that the concern for the general public is an excuse for support for regulation which helps incumbents or limits competition. The second Bizarre thing is that I personally don’t doubt the sincerity of the lobbyists advocating regulation in the public interest of the members of the lobby. For one thing, their claims are obviously correct and at least an overwhelming majority of independent experts agree. In fact, I haven’t read a defence of the Cruz amendment by ultra hack Avik Roy (I think there is one by uber hack Stephen Moore). I don’t think that an honest case can be made that an industry lobby isn’t sincerely acting (this time) in what it’s officers consider to be the public interest.
But strangeness beyond strangeness, it seems possible that 50 GOP Senators will ignore all serious independent analysis and all of the relevant interest groups. I don’t recall the last time so many Republicans seriously considered standing up to big business. I don’t think it is really surprising that Republicans finally say no to an interest group when that interest group says the public must be protected from the socially damaging profit seeking which shareholders will fore on them.
Everything is updide down in Bizarro World.