I saw this tweet today…
Just fyi, the US stock market has never NOT crashed post back to back quarters of corp profit declines
— Keith McCullough (@KeithMcCullough) January 6, 2016
Profits peak when the economy reaches its effective demand limit. A recession eventually follows.
How much can the psychology embedded in the tweet move market expectations?
I feel the economy is close to recession (link) but the data do not say that it has started. The business cycle could still bounce off this moment and keep going a while longer. I am waiting for more data from 4thQ 2015. But we need to keep an eye on the Animal Spirits of psychology.
It is another data dependent moment with Animal Spirits in these interesting times.