Open thread October 2, 2015 Dan Crawford | October 2, 2015 3:53 pm Tags: open thread Comments (9) | Digg Facebook Twitter |
on the factory orders report released today…the totals for new orders for non-durable goods and shipments of non-durable goods are identical, ie, all the amounts for June, July, August and year to date are identical, as are the percentage changes shown…
tables 1 & 2:
i downloaded the excel files for both and they also showed non-durable data to be identical…i called the Census bureau unit before 5PM and left a message notifying them of this error, but apparently they’d all gone home…
i suspect the error is with the new orders, but it’s hard to tell, since the monthly difference between orders and shipments has been around 0.6%..
you will be pleased to know, however, that all of the MSM and econobloggers reported on this data as it was reported by the Census despite the obvious glaring error…
Quelle surprise. Who were the bloggers who reported on this?
Bill, MIsh reported on both factory orders and shipments, with “last month revised lower” a major feature…zero hedge posted mostly charts generated from it, as a “recession warning”…steve hansen at econointersect did a largely year over year analysis and didn’t notice anything out of the ordinary….and i also saw some paniced reactions from financial sites, such as FX Street..
(i left a comment with the three mentioned above)
I was nosy as to those who always claim greater intelligence in the soft science than us off to the side observing and commenting are responding to the numbers.
most reported it as bad news, and those who thrive on bad news were thus confirmed…all i seriously wrote above this week from this report were factory inventories, noting that if the misposting of data affected the data on new orders as i suspect, it would have in like manner have screwed up the data on unfilled orders..
unlikely that the Fed or the markets caught the error either, so it could have had serious implications if it werent overshadowed by the employment report..
Naked Capitalism pointed out this interview with Michael Hudson on his new book: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/10/michael-hudson-on-parasitic-financial-capitalism.html
Long but worthwhile… I think I need to read this.
Nice recap of Sanders event in Boston here: https://storify.com/JonathanCohn/feelthebern-bernie-sanders-rally-in-boston
Feel the bern!
Time for some hard conversations: https://www.jacobinmag.com/2015/10/strike-chicago-teachers-union-public-private-sector/
Money quote: “We know the Right’s rhetoric, for example about taking away someone’s pension because someone else doesn’t have one, is ridiculous — but we run away from it because it seems like a hard conversation.”
Ridiculous! As in something to be ridiculed and possibly pitied.
the rest of the story, Bill…
i talked with the Census Bureau department that handles factory orders this morning, and they tell me they do not collect data on new orders for non durable goods, because of the quick turnaround time; ie, non-durables such as food are shipped the same day they’re ordered, so orders equals shipments…hence, the new factory orders they report monthly are equal to new orders of durable goods plus shipments of non-durable goods, and the report is not in error…for non-durables, shipments = new orders
i’m not really confident about the accuracy of that shortcut, but that’s the way they do it…