Open thread July 17, 2015 Dan Crawford | July 17, 2015 5:48 am Tags: open thread Comments (9) | Digg Facebook Twitter |
The long-awaited Social Security Trustees Report will presumably be released next week. The National Academy of Social Insurance has scheduled a meeting on “What’s the News in the 2015 Social Security Trustees Report?,” featuring (among others) Stephen Goss, Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration, for next Thursday morning. So I assume the report will be out before then.
I just checked their website and last year NASI had a similar meeting which was held on July 28, the day the report was issued. So the report might be issued on next Thursday. NASI must have had an advance copy last year, because attendees were promised “copies of the Academy’s new brief, Social Security Finances: Findings of the 2014 Trustees Report.” I don’t see how they could have that ready on the day of release unless they had an advance copy.
Treasury announced yesterday that the Social Security Trustees will have a press availability on Weds 2:30 Eastern and that Reports would be available. Historically they have released the Report online at the same time as it is available in paper. Normally at 1 PM Eastern.
Unless they change the URL format the link to the 2015 SHOULD be
http://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2015/index.html to give access to HTML of the Report, Tables and Figures.
Same thing for the PDF of the whole Report. It SHOULD be
Either way there will be posts on this up here at AB on Wednesday, with updated links if that is necessary.
Yes last year both NASI and Social Security opponent AEI had advance access to the Report, sufficient at least for them to book conference rooms and have speakers lined up. Which was kind of a departure from past years where the embargo was pretty strict, even as to announcing the actual day. Pretty much the Report would just pop up online and there you were.
But it almost certainly will be available at SSA.gov and HERE! on Wednesday. Link to all Reports from current back to first, which will include 2015 when released
My comment at:
The world upside down: in Chicago 100,000 out of (my guess) 200,000 gang-age, minority males are in drug dealing street gangs — I would surmise because they wont go to work for a minimum wage several dollars below LBJ’s $11/hr peak in 1968 — DOUBLE THE AVERAGE INCOME SINCE (something called economic growth — might have to triple the min wage to keep up with half a century of growth).
No a purely poor side of town phenomenon. When was the last time I saw an American born cab driver in Chicago? Meter now 50 cents a mile below 1981 when I started — since added subways to both airports, free trolleys between hot spots, unlimited limos AND 40% more cabs.
$13 an hour in five years means $12 an hour with inflation — a whole dollar higher than LBJ — another 10% (projected) per capita income growth later. Keep the white kids in cell phone money and (going by my Chicago area) Mexicans desperate for the first world — wont draw many black kids looking for serious jobs.
$15 min wage shifts 3.5% of income from the 55% who now take 90% of income share to the 45% who take 10% — about how much we grow every couple of years. When are we going to get serious about the poor side of town folks — about the working very poor?
Google reported good results on Friday and the stock took off in a big way. +$93 (+16%).
The market capitalization of Goog is now $459B – up $60B in a day. The one-day increase is greater than the ENTIRE market cap of 400 of the S&P 500.
Sergi Brin and Larry Page saw their net worth go up $4B each (to the mid$30b range).
Does this huge creation of wealth make a difference? Not really. It does add a few more Bs on the scale of wealth inequality. And none of this wealth is taxed.
Not a gain until you sell it, and then it is taxed.
EM – Yes, there is a preferred tax rate on this gain if and when there is a sale. Most of this wealth will end up in 501 3 c and the money will be donated. This is what the Waltons, Gates, and Buffet have done.
Most of this wealth is not taxed in the end.
Webb – What are the variables that you look to first when the SSA report is released?
Ones I look at.
Termination date of Fund (with and without DI)
Year that TFs will first go negative.
YoY increase in NPV of unfunded portion
Change in the I&P estimate.
The projections on real/nominal growth. Interest rate assumptions. Changes in the long-term inflation outlook.
Changes in mortality assumptions? (Not likely this year)
Changes due to SCOTUS and SS rights of same sex partners? (Not likely this year)