Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

US Housing

I am wondering why the rate of US house construction remains so low. I see two candidate explanations. The first is that lending standards remain very tight — the mortgage lenders having been very badly burnt once remain twice shy. The other is that potential house buyers no longer perceive owner occupied housing to be […]

Resurgence of Effective Demand

We are seeing a resurgence of effective demand from both long term yields (borrowing costs) and headline inflation falling. What if 10-year yields fall to 1.6% by 2nd quarter 2015? And what if headline inflation falls to -0.5% by 2nd Q too? (Barclays is predicting negative headline inflation through 2015, Matthew B tweet.) I graph […]

Guest post: Which Party Is Better for the Economy?

Dan here…Angry Bear Mike Kimel addressed the issue of politics and economic growth in his book Presimetrics. Paul Krugman has as well in the last several weeks. Nathan Salminem takes another look. The post will be divided into three parts at Angry Bear, but can be read in its entirety here. Guest post by Nathan Salminen (is […]

On Sachs on Krugman

I have been pinged @Noahpinion @sjwrenlewis also pinging @interfluidity @robertwaldmann @Frances_Coppola and anyone else who wants to get involved. — Michael Harris (@MichaelH_PhD) January 7, 2015 and am so flattered to be pinged in such company that I decided I had to read the Jeff Sachs article on Krugman Austerity and the Obama recovery and […]

GDP growth and Federal Revenues and Expenditures during the Current Recovery

This is a pointless follow up post to this post which got some attention. As suggested by New Keynesian models, the old post considered G — government consumption plus investment. Here I am going to look at total expenditures (including transfers) and total revenues. Also I will consider only the Federal Government (due to FRED […]

Tales of Globalization: Russia and China

by Joseph Joyce Tales of Globalization: Russia and China The end of 2014 marked the 23rd anniversary of the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the establishment of the Russian Federation. Like Chinese leaders in the previous decade, Russian policymakers faced the challenge of integrating their nation into the global economy. Russia’s trade openness (exports […]