CBO says Obamacare Will Cost 20% Less Than Initial Projections
The CBO lowered its forecast of the cost of the Affordable Care Act by 20%
h.t. Richard Mayhew and @StevenTDennis
Here is the CBO report (pdf warning)
I clip and past a dramatic graph
They also estimate that it has caused 12 million more people to have insurance. This is the net increase subtracting cancelled non ACA compliant pseudo insurance. I wonder if the official 12 million estimate will convince people to stop saying that the increase is around 10 million (I doubt it). My back of the envelope calculation was 13-14 million.
Notably ACA critics claimed that the old CBO estimate, which implied that Obamacare would reduce the deficit, was bogus. Well it was incorrect (making predictions is difficult especially about the future) but because it underestimated the reduction of the deficit due to Obamacare.
The CBO cost estimate of costs through is also 7% lower than their estimate made April 2014. That is, the latest estimate of the costs 2015-2024 is reduced by $101 billion (which isn’t pocket change even for the US Federal Government). Also and in addition, the new CBO estimate of the number of people who will gain insurance in 2024 due to the ACA is one million higher than the estimate made long ago in April 2014, so one million more people insured for 101 billion fewer dollars. Not bad at all.
How can this be!!! Euthanasia?
It would mean that bringing group coverage to the uninsured works in the same manner as ESI coverage for those employed. The PPACA was always meant to reduce the costs of healthcare.
Charles Gaba has several estimations of what the final signup will be based upon interpretation. Over all the article is pretty interesting in how he looks at the PPACA enrollment and what it actually means. A worthy read for those interested.
– 9.1 Million: HHS’s Paid QHP Enrollee Projection
This is how many people the HHS Dept. believes will select a private policy and have paid their first premium in time for them to be fully enrolled for either January 1st, February 1st or March 1st coverage.
– 10.4 Million: HHS’s Total QHP Selection Projection
This is how many people the HHS Dept. believes will select a private policy as of 2/15/15, whether they end up paying their first premium or not.
– 11.0 Million: ACA SIGNUPS Paid QHP Enrollee Projection
This is how many people I think will select and pay for/be enrolled in their policy by March (my equivalent of HHS’s 9.1M above).
– 12.5 Million: ACA SIGNUPS Total QHP Selection Projection
This is how many people I think will select a private policy via the exchanges by 2/15/15, whether they end up paying or not.
– CBO suggests 13 million
Course, this is only good news if you are concerned about healthcare for an increasing amount of Americans while decreasing costs.
It is bad news if you are concerned that physicians and nurses and providers are being disrespected and underpaid while being forced to move away from the 37th best healthcare system in the world.
Given that we are the 37th best healthcare system, and that doctors and nurses are probably at or near the top in pay, perhaps they are not so “disrespected and underpaid”.
Agree: Any complaint about PPACA increasing government spending is just plain silly. Why wouldn’t a new tax on the lower and middle class reduced the deficit?
The make or break will be does this tax and it’s transfer of middle class & lower class wealth to shareholders in hospital, insurance, drug companies, etc, create sufficient gain to encourage them to continue to bribe Congress and any future president to retain the tax and slowly optimize the wealth extraction, or will they kill the goose.
I do not know what’s worse, the parts I understand or the parts I don’t understand.