There has been much discussion recently of the “problem” with Macroeconomics. See Nick Rowe, Noah Smith (who may have been punked by a self-selecting sample—or may not have), Mark Thoma, Brad DeLong, RDan’s collection here a while back, and the rest of The Usual Suspects.Let’s ignore for the moment that the problem with Macro is […]

by Mike Kimel Some Thoughts on Statistical Analysis (A bit wonky) Via Tyler Cowen, a pretty good post on statistical analysis. While I suggest reading the post, I’ve reproduced the first sentence of each point the author makes below (though have cut out the pieces in betweeen): 1. When you don’t have to code your own estimators, youprobably won’t […]

Steve Randy Waldman as usual gets practical about Treasury issuing platinum coins. JKH in comments there does typically likewise. Suppose the Department of the Treasury says: “We have a statutory obligation to pay all amounts that have been authorized by Congress — both expenditure and debt obligations. Since the borrowing limit has been reached and […]

With all the well-deserved attention going to Kevin Drum’s excellent Mother Jones article on crime rates and lead in gasoline (more here), I thought it worth revisiting my post on the subject from a year and a half ago, which was itself prompted by Angry Bear’s own inimitable Robert Waldmann. Government Gets the Lead Out, […]

by Bruce Webb CBO: SS Scheduled vs Payable Benefits (Rosser’s Equation illustrated) ‘Rosser’s Equation’ is something between an in-joke and tribute to Prof. Barkley Rosser, Jr of JMU, an economist friend of mine who pointed out a surprising result: real payable benefits after projected Trust Fund depletion and subsequent 25% cut will still be higher […]

I’m not certain the authors intend this to mean that a shift to services means that workers will never get paid their MPL. But I think it does. But those at the AEA—er, ASSA—meeting can ask them tomorrow: Jan 06, 2013 8:00 am, Hyatt, Manchester E. More tomorrow. Or some day thereafter.

Casey Mulligan would very much like you to believe it does. “cutting unemployment insurance would increase employment, as it would end payments for people who fail to find work and would reduce the cushion provided after layoffs.” Here’s one pretty well-done data point (several, actually) suggesting that he’s wrong: In theory, greater employment protection should […]

Two days ago, Dan posted an entry by run75441 titled “SCOTUS Chastises Congress and the Executive Branch.”  The post’s title wasn’t quite accurate; run’s post was about Chief Justice John Roberts’ annual state-of-the-judicial-branch report, in which he was writing in his capacity as administrative head of that branch, not in his actual judicial capacity, and […]

An important post from Izabella Kaminska at FT Alphaville and recommended reading (h/t rjs):  On the new purpose of government debt –   Frances Coppola has whipped up an absolutely fabulous commentary on this Bank of Iinternational Settlements working paper on safe assets, which cuts straight to the point of. As she neatly expresses, in our new […]

At first glance the December employment report shows that the trends throughout 2012 were unchanged in December.  But within the report there were some greater signs of strength. Private payroll employment showed a gain of 155,000 and the household survey reported a much smaller gain of only 28,000.  These changes are about the same  as […]