The Employment Situation
This was another mixed employment report. The headline increase of 171,000 increase in payroll employment and 410,000 rise in employment reported in the household survey appeared strong. But other signs of weakness appeared within the report.
The 184,000 increase in private payroll employment was the strongest since February.
But the work week fell from 33.7 to 33.6 and the index of aggregate hours works fell -0.1 from 103.8 to 103.7. Relative to the trend establish early in this cycle, hours worked has been weak for several months..
Moreover average hourly earnings was essentially unchanged as it fell from $19.80 to $19.79..
The growth in average hourly earnings plunged to 1.2%, an all time record low.
Average weekly fell from $667.26 to $664.94 and the year over year growth rate was only 1.2%, the smallest gain in this cycle.
Correction: I originally enter the weekly wage data in the hourly earnings comment.
I corrected this and added the weekly wage data in the proper place.
If employment is up and labor force is up, are we seeing a decline in hours do to fewer overtime hours worked?
yes.
And the length of the work week fell.
there are a lot of anecdotes about employers only hiring part time workers to avoid obamacare mandated health coverage..
rjs,
i=It is frustrating to never see numbers. I have a relative who complains the reason he does not start a new business is Obamacare…yet this new business would have only a couple employees…
So what is a possible estimate in the 40 to 60 employees band of companies possibly affected, and then what is the quantity?
Some of the stories are about big companies, but all I have seen are experiments in staffing for a few stores…exploratory so to speak…and certainly within the trends already in place before concern about Obamacare, and for reasons other than Obamacare.
Some employers are thinking through contingency plans depending on the election and the eventual roll out of Obamacare.
I wouldn’t call it a trend, just a nagging back-of-the-brain worry.
Once we know the results of the elections, the fiscal cliff and the roll out approaches this could be become a trend, UNLESS the economy heats up (that cures lots of worries).
Uncertainty of demand and uncertainty about costs are a bad combination.
dan, dont have a clue about the numbers either (why i said anecdotes), and it only came to mind reading the exchange between DB & spencer…
i have a nephew with a small business software operation, & he blames everything that hasnt gone right on obama…when times are tough, people look to scapegoat…& the small business owners are probably the most randian elements in the population..
rjs: …& the small business owners are probably the most randian elements in the population..
I have to agree with you on that assesment. I’m amazed at how many of my fellow small business owners look at me sideways when I start talking about how the economy is currently functioning for them.
An “economy is currently functioning for them” only if they have a product or service that others want or need and the business (small or large) is capable of delivering at a competitive price. There’s that competition thing again. Some times it is luck, some times ingenuity plays a role. That’s the nature of competition. The government is just another externality in this process that all market players must account for.
There are no libertarians amongst the victims. Libertarianism is a theology for those who seek to gain from the hardships of others.
Obamacare worries minimum wage exploiters.
WalMart employees’ dependence on food stamps, medicaid, using Romney’s emergency room solution, etc constitutes an average annual cost to society of roughly $400K.
In southern New hampshire, near Massachussets, low wage workers drive from Mass where the safety net is better, so Mass tax payers are subsidizing NH businesses and its tea party no safety net government.
I do not buy at Wal Mart, and avoid fast food chains.
Dan/rjs:
Any employer with 25 or less employees will subsidized for hralthcare insurance for employees. Any employer between 25-50 employees will be exempted in from the penalties faced by larger companies.
The lack of social responsibility by the Olive Gardens and other restaurants is appalling; however, many of the restaurat and other business castoffs will be able to obtain insurance on the exchange or go to Medicaid under 133% of poverty. The subsidies go to 400% of poverty.
I do need to write about the supposed 30 million some claim will not be covered. There is a curious twist to all of this.
dan, here’s the access point for 10 years of historical data for voluntary part time workers and involuntary part time (such as would show up in U-6)
i dont detect a significant trend towards part time post obamacare; just the continuation of the elevated U-6 series that’s been that way since the recession started..
Ok, so unemployment rate is gradually reducing. But changes are that little that , as for me, they are not worth any mentioning at all. I mean if we were to discuss 1-2% decrease in unemplyoment situation, well that is another deal. I don’t think that 0.1-0.2% is that big achievment ( from the other side with all that nasty thing they do to us they think that such a small number are going to make us happy). In any case people keep looking for companies to give them installment loans for bad credit in order to meet ends. This is what important I think!