The Myth of the "Independent" Voter
John Sides at The Monkey Cage makes what seems to be an incredibly important point, at least for politico types. In the latest Pew report (PDF) that everyone’s nattering about, we see a big rise in “independent” voters over the last decade (to 38%).
But:
only 12% of respondents did not identify with or lean toward a party
And if you look at the leaners, they’re just as partisan as the fully-declared party supporters:
So pretty much everyone who’s paying attention has taken sides.
Do with that what you will.
Cross-posted at Asymptosis.
Hey if we can destroy the mythical “independent” voter maybe we can get rid of another useless, wrong and somewhat related idea: The one that says divisive combative politics discourages participation and turns off the electorate. (E.g. third way, americans elect, and similar beltway “gee wasn’t that old consensus swell” crap)
Tonight’s WI recall election may actually drive turnout above 2008 levels. It remains to be seen whether Axelrod and Plouffe will learn anything from the example. Or perhaps depressing voter turnout has become a bipartisan goal. We may find out.
Networks are calling the historic Wisconsin recall for Governor Scott Walker and Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch while final vote counts continue to roll in. This victory marks the third time the far left and Big Labor has been defeated at the polls since Obama’s inauguration. If ever there was a referendum on public sector unions and the President’s idea of how government should work, it was with this election. If ever there was a measure of the muscle of the tea party movement, let it be judged by this election.
The tea party led the way, got out the vote, and raised massive amounts of money for the recall candidates. I visited Wisconsin twice to help rally voters and was amazed at the ground game of the Wisconsin tea party groups. I was amazed at the effort of folks like Nancy Milholland, a rock-n-roll tea partier with AFP, who helped coordinate with local grassroots. I met a tea partier named Tamra Varebrook who ran a legitimate race as a “Walker Democrat” in Racine County, the hotly contested race where embattled Van Wanggaard fought to help hold the state Senate’s Republican majority. I was up there just this past Saturday when 4,000 patriots filled a field in the middle of nowhere, Wisconsin, on the outskirts of Milwaukee. They were energized, engaged, and ready to make their voices heard at the polls.
Jimmy Hoffa Jr. said in Detroit: “President Obama, this is your army … let’s take these sons of bitches out.”
So much for that.
While Occupiers and union protesters got the ink, the tea party dropped the placards and picked up clipboards, phones, and got out the vote. They petitioned, volunteered, they took out a number of RINOs, including Dick Lugar; they forced Orrin Hatch into a primary and got Ted Cruz into a runoff. We won the House for the GOP in 2010. We won MA for Scott Brown. And now we’ve sent a message to the White House via Wisconsin: your class warfare rhetoric is rejected, your public sector construct voted down –again.
The stage is set. Obama was denied a campaign talking point in Wisconsin. The first generation of reform governors has been protected by voters. Debbie Wasserman Schultz called Wisconsin a “dry run” for November. Indeed it is. Get ready.
#War.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/06/05/loesch-wi-recall-a-tea-party-victory
Sure sure. Good thing the Koch brothers and their buddies have plenty of cash to keep up the 8:1 spending spree. Nothing to see here!
I’m an independent voter who “leans” democrat–most of the time, I vote for the democrat. But it’s usually not because I want to. What practical choice is there? The two major parties control the election system. The Republicans have successfully driven any sane and moderate politicians away, and third-party “protest” votes go nowhere. If there were a reasonable third choice, I’d go for it. But building a real third-party would be a long and costly project, and as we saw with the Tea Party, the dissatisfied are a diffuse group.
“Polarization Extends to Independents as Well” An oxymoronic phrase if ever there was one. You can’t be independent and polarized all at the same time, unless your polarized opinions hop scotch across the ideological lines. The moronic character of the idea is born out by the behavior of the average American voter. Walker’s re-election is yet another example of the working class voter (at least 50% in most cases) votes fear, emotion and prejudice rather then economic self interest. Moronic, as I said.
And Sammy’s analysis of the out come is another prime example of ignorance.
“.. the far left and Big Labor has been defeated at the polls…” The far left? Only if you’re measuring distance from the Atlantic or Pacific coasts to Wisconsin. And what a wonderful thing it is when working class voters vote against union organizations and organizing. Their incomes have been stagnant for about three decades while folks like the Koch brothers have taken over the bank, so to speak. A college education is climbing out of reach, but what the hell, the schools have been so dramatically underfunded that their kids won’t ever be ready for college any way.
“…idea of how government should work..” Is that a reference to the McConnell and Boehner concept of government by inaction. Virtually every effort to revive the economic engine has been blocked or hampered by those two clowns. But the working class voter is more concerned with warfare, dirty immigrants, communists (like the ones in China) homosexuals and the unborn fetus than about the good of the country. Unfortunately we all have to suffer the destructive ideologies of the reactionary right and the mega-billionaires that fund their madness. There is a great deal of money to be made by politicians who dance to their tunes. But the rest of us will be left holding the bag full of shit at the end of the day.
Sammy,
It was a great Victory last night for reforming bloated government. Gov Walker won as did the Lt Gov and all 4 Republican Senators. Wisconsin Voters sent an unmistable message of support for Gov. Walker’s Policies. Yes, Walker ran on his record and the voters approved. The labor unions through the kitchen sink at him and were rejected.
‘The One’ Obama couldn’t even manage to lift a finger to help the Unions between his golf games and selecting drone targets from the White House. Well, he did send a tweet!
And what do AS and Jack have to say? the Koch bogeymen and calling the working class morons. Limosine liberals at its finest! Did you see rachel Maddow and Lawrence O’Donnel? Both looked like the ate a dead cat. Bwahahahaha!!
This is what democracy looks like!!!
Victory!
Islam will change
Moopheus,
The two parties absorb any 3rd party’s ideas that become popular. The Reps have basically absorbed the ‘Tea Party’. It takes something very significant to actually kill one of the parties – The prelude to the Civil War being a good example.
So if your dissatisfied your best bet is to work within the existing structure to change things. You have two recent examples to model after. The Tea Party, which is definitely changing the Rep party. The failed example would be the OWS which basically flopped and disappeared – not even being absorbed into the Dem party. Two examples of ways to try.
Good luck with your third party.
Islam will change
Actually in the fact based world John Lehman beat Van Wanggaard in Senate 21 by almost a thousand votes. This is what data looks like!!!!
Good luck with Mitty Mitt this fall he’s all you got.
AS,
Sorry – I went with the projections from last night. But the data is clear. Voters LIKE Walkers policies and resoundingly voted FOR him. Your guy and policies LOST.
BTW, Notice all the Tweets callinig for Walkers Death? Your side is just full of civility!
http://twitchy.com/2012/06/06/kill-scott-walker-angry-libs-flood-twitter-with-death-threats-after-wisconsin-recall-defeat/
or
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2012/06/democrats-threaten-walker-assassination.php
Is this the Dems version of a concession speech?
But we know what Democracy looks like!
Islam will change
The Kochs bought the WI election. That’s not good news for anyone, R or D. I doubt the Supremes will fiddle with the Citizens United decision in their next term. This is what the 1% want and they get what they want. NancyO
Just to drive home the point I’m making, above, regarding the working class, right-side ideologically confused voters take a close look at Spencer’s state by state GDP table. The bottom 20 are red as can be. Their voters deserve their lowly position of the economic scale. They helped to put themselves there, but there are about 50% of the voters in those states that have been left holding the short end of the stick because their friends and neighbors can’t see the end of their own economic noses.
Read Buff’s comment. It’s a perfect example of the blind sided childishness of the crew. “Bwahahaha!!” A truly enlightened response. He’s got his pension. Fortunately for me, I’ve got mine. We won’t be too badly damaged economically by the inane activities of Boehner et al, but our children will find it much more difficult to adjust to an economic perspective that gives it all to the top minute sector and expects the rest to sit far below and grovel for crumbs. Sounds like we’re moving towards 18th century Paris. I’m glad I won’t be around for the response when the working class wakes up and finds itself in rags eating gruel.
Jack,
Your the one who called the working class morons. Not I. Get over it. The days of bloated government are coming to an end. Wisconsin just lead the way,biut other states are following…
This is what Democracy looks like!
You are right Sammy –the tea baggers did have a lot to do with Walker surviving the recall. The suburbs surrounding Milwaukee and the Fox Valley were the keys to Wallkers win just as Barrett’s relatively poor showing in the city of Milwaukee doomed him. None of which has anything to do with the right/left split, unions or the size of government and has everything to do with the racism that permeates those areas of the state. Ultimately that is all the tea baggers have going for them and they are demographically doomed in the next generation. The koch brothers are laughing all the way to the bank and even Scott Walker–no one will ever mistake him for an intellectual giant–has to marvel at how easy it it is to manipulate the less educated middle class and lower middle class Wisconsin white male–ie the demographic group Walker won.
You are right Buffy–this is what democracy looks like, but it has always been a matter of the elites fooling a majority of the masses. The bizarre notion is that corporate interests can fool working class men–the women not so much–into voting for a politician who is out to screw them. It is the old What is wrong with Kansas analysis, but without the explicit social issue. My sister and brother in law who barely qualify as lower working class vote GOP because the Democrats want to force women to have abortions. I get that, but in Wisconsin it really came down to just the economics and Walkers demonizing working men and women. That is why working class males who voted for Walker in large numbers are morons, but as noted above there is a racist element to the voting patterns as well and Walker was able to exploit that by pointing to the ills of the City of Milwaukee. It really made no sense because while Barrett has been the mayor, Walker was either the county exec or governor unless you consider the effect it has of having people associate Barrett with all the problems of diverse urban environments. Remember that over half the population of the three urban counties surrounding Milwaukee County which voted over 70% for Walker, fled the City of Milwaukee after the 1960’s busing orders, the marches for open housing and the 1967 riots.
“Bloated government.” All those teachers just rolling in the big bucks at a ratio of one teacher to every 20 or more kids. That’s bloated alright. Of course, they and the superfluous cops and fire fighters are long gone under today’s disappearing state budgets. Buff worked in the military of which I have no experience. It is possible there are enough civilian employees/contractors in the military employee pool to get the job done. Not true in domestic agencies like (I just keep on nagging!) Social Security where the budget just keeps on shrinking and so does the number of employees on duty.
Being born and raised in the working class, I don’t call anyone who works for a living in the trades or service industriesl a moron. I managed to get an education and get up into the middle class after years of striving. I tend to be driven about stuff like sticking to the truth and I know that working class people don’t have the luxury of indulging in philosophical arguments about the relative merits of the Salt and Fresh water schools of economics.
I speak ordinary person English and Spanish, too. You’d be surprised how much you can learn from a field crew boss from an ag corporation in Fresno. So, when voters see how some people earn more for the same jobs, and they are told it’s the unions’ fault, it sounds true and they believe it. They’re right that it isn’t fair that some earn more than they do. But, their opportunities for education weren’t the best and nobody cared when they were cheated out of opportunities people with more money had.
So, you vote they way you see it. It’s not their fault. It’s the fault of the people who refuse to pay them a reasonable wage and won’t pay taxes to provide a good education for everyone. The Koch’s won and they are gonna gloat all the way to the elections this November. Be carefult what you wish for, Buff. It could be worse and there are people just waiting to show you how much a college education can cost. NancyO
all the charts show more polarity of late…
Ah, the bloated government thingie, stubbornly and conveniently undefined. While maybe true in some instances, not helping us define the issue makes for just slogans buff, which I realize may be the point.
Sammy…breitbart? Please say it was simply impulsive>
NO,
You have Jack and Terry calling working class people morons. I never have.
As for bloated government – California takes the cake. I bet you could easily reduce California’s budget without laying off one teacher, firemen, or policeman. Yet when the ax falls the government agencies always take the cuts out of what hurts the populance the most – not what is least useful. And California has lots of that. Start by reduce administrative/teacher ratio to what was around in 1980 – when California schools were outstanding. There is bloat. Then go on and really justify every agency and position in the state government that was created in the last 30 years. I would bet half could disappear tommorrow and no one would even notice.
As for the cost of education. Call me when we stop the blantant racism in admissions and pricing. And even now, anyone who can do the work can get through college with very lttle debt. But they will have to work at it, go to State colleges, and work part-time (full time during the summers) while studying. Or get their parents to pay if they are unwilling. BUt if your going into debt at $60K/year for a XYZ Studies major you’re a moron (to quote Jack and Terry).
Islam will change
Right Jack. I guess WI voters are jealous of those fat transfer payments going to Mississippi.
Buff,
I think it’s just demographics. The US population is getting older, and as people get older, they gain experience and wisdom, hence they become more conservative. Demographics = Destiny!
Nuh uh. For Sammy Breitbart is Truth Justice and The American Way! Probably the only one. I see only good things happening here.
Well avoiding debt will make living on Starbucks, Kinkos and Burger King wages with that new degree a lot less difficult. Kudos!
Yeah, I love that bloated government thing. Like every state and town and county have military, national and international security lines in their budgets so big that the combined total out spends the rest of the world.
Or how about that regulation thing? I’m still looking for my town and state regulations that so burdon me that I just can’t make any money on my global engagements. Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha………
As people age they tend to get more paranoid too. They feel their mortality and it’s frieghtening.
LOL, I love the way the left always cries about the Koch brothers when Soros funds leftist organizations to the tune of 10X what the Kochs spend.
Buff, When I talked about calling people morons, I didn’t mean particularly that you had done so. It was a general remark. As you know, I don’t generally seek to pick fights and don’t usually use comments to insult commenters who contribute to the conversation here.
As for the state of California being afflicted with a “bloated bureaucracy”, well, I lived there for 30 years and renewed my DL at my local DMV. I saw no signs of a bloated bureaucracy as I waited in line for an hour or two whenever I went. Remember, California has a population of more than 37 million people and is as big as some European countries. It takes a lot of money to run a state like that.California’s economy is the ninth largest in the world. It takes a lot of people to run a government that big–anywhere on earth. Do they need a government that big? Well, go there and see for yourself.
Meanwhile, every view that wel hold about what the government ought to do or not do has inadvertent consequences. My point was that having things the way you think you want them now may turn out to be a bad bargain for you and everyone else. NancyO
LOL, I love the way the left always cries about the Koch brothers when Soros funds leftist organizations to the tune of 10X what the Kochs spend.
People can whine all they want about Koch and Soros, but their combined funding doesn’t come close to what the unions. At least Koch and Soros are voluntarily giving of their own money, rather than confiscating it from people via legal coercion, in order to support and further their political goals.
LOL, I love the way the left always cries about the Koch brothers when Soros funds leftist organizations to the tune of 10x what the Kochs spend.
People can whine all they want about Koch and Soros, but their combined funding doesn’t come close to what the unions spend. At least Koch and Soros are voluntarily giving of their own money, rather than confiscating it from people via legal coercion, in order to support and further their political goals. Good luck to a union member who doesn’t believe his dues should go to prop up leftist statists.
You are one of Lenin’s famous “useful idiots.” Congratulations!
Speaking of intellectual giants, you are so very clever using a derisive term like “teaba****” (my parents didn’t teach me to talk or write like that). Yeah, that grass roots groundswell of regular people of various political stripes deciding that they are Taxed Enough Already (TEA) – what a bunch of uneducated racist, sexist, bigot, homophobes! Who are they to complain about how much of their earnings the goverment confiscates?! Don’t they know that it’s not their decision to make? They also probably approve of dripping lemon juice in the eyes of little kittens just for fun!
Thankfully, they have people such as yourself, who are in possession of an atypical wisdom that the common man can scarcely comprehend to show them the way. Unfortunately, no matter how much you try to persuade these people (which I doubt you do, since those you deem of lesser intellectual capacity probably aren’t deserving of your time or attention) they never seem to come around to your view of the world. That’s just crazy right? Why they don’t understand how creating more money out of thin air and burying future generations under an immoral mountain of debt will save the economy and fix the debt problem is mind boggling isn’t it? lol
Fortunately for you comrade, there are plenty of leftist, mutual admiration societies around in which you can parrot your canards, fallacies, sophisms, and personal attacks. You squeal like a stuck pig and cry about things being taken from you when, in reality, people are just reclaiming for themselves that which you and your ideological kin have been stealing from the citizenry for nigh 100 years.
“You have Jack and Terry calling working class people morons. I never have.”
No you haven’t because that would be like the potcalling the kettle black. You’re one of them Buff, w white working class male with a slightly better vocabulary, but little understanding of the purpose of government and the intricacies of economic manipulation of the working class. California is bloated? By what measure? How big a government is required to meet the needs of more than 37 million citizens spread out over 163.6 thousand sq. miles? Given Californias’ far better economic condition than so many other states one might think that the government there is the right size.
To say nothing of the on set of senile dementia, loss of memory and a general demunition of perception. But undoubtedly sammy must be right. All the failings of old age may lead to a more conservative perspective and a yearning for the “good old days.” And keep your damned gubment hands off of my Medicare. Where the hell is my Social Security check? That damned gubment post office musta lost it again. Fire them lazy postal employees.
Yeah, how intellectually lazy to not define bloated government. It’s so right of you to point that out. LOL, what an idiot he is!
Some people would fundamentally think there is a problem with a person/family/business/municipality… whose expenditures regularly exceed revenues, but nah, let’s focus on the lack of definition for the word “bloated.”
LOL, you people would be a lot funnier if your willful ignorance wasn’t so dangerous.
Sammy,
What I find amazing is how most of the posters here basically are calling the voters who rejected them and their policies rascist, morons, paranoid, and having dementia. It never once occurs to them they actually may be wrong.
Well we got a good look at Democracy in action yesterday!!
Islam will change
NO,
I bet you could cut 10% of the current personel from the California government and no one would ever miss them (And not fire 1 teacher, cop or fireman). Yes the state probably does need a fairly robust government – its a big state. But that still doesn’t mean it government is not full of bloat. The problem is everyone starts the cutting with at the Point of Service. That’s not were you make the cuts. Its in the bloated overhead. The California public colleges are a case in point – cut them back to the same ratio of teachers to admin in 1980 and I would bet quality would improve and costs would go down. then get read of all majors with the word “Studies’ in them.
BUt instead its always to ‘save the teachers’. Great. Walker’s budget act and legislation saved lots of teachers jobs. Even Barret didn’t dispute it and he ran away from the unions since it was a loser issue. Walkers reforms worked. And a lot of people got raises since they no longer were forced to give money to unions. Now the unions need to show some value add, today, to convince people to right a dues check.
And has long as the federal Department of Education has a SWAT team and HEB as bunny inspectors (for magicians) I can say the government is bloated…
Islam will change
Hey Bryan,
There is a problem with a person/family or business running a deficit continually, but not a government. Government is not a business.
But, you know what is a bigger problem? The fact that the top 1% are taking money out of the economy as income faster than the GDP is rising.
First 43 years doubling: GDP 8.6 yrs, 99%’ers 10.75 yrs, 1%’ers 14.3 yrs.
Next 32 years doubling: GDP 10.6 yrs, 99%’ers 11 yrs, 1%’ers 8 yrs.
Some people would fundamentally think there is a problem with a person/family/business taking money out of the income stream faster than they are producing income. Which I believe is kind of the issue of Steve’s recent post?
Then again, unlike person/family/business government is not taking a piece of the income and pocketing it for their own personal gain. It all goes right back into the economy for everyone’s gain.
Idiot!
Daniel,
You are an economic illiterate. The middle class is being gutted by the Fed and fiat currency. It’s been going on for 100 years. You’re a typical, ignorant, canard spewing lefty propagandist who doesn’t have a clue as to what the source of the real problem is.
Oh, and as far as all that wasted money going back into the economy for everybody’s benefit… Why don’t you look up the term malinvestment. Better yet, ever heard of Solyndra?
knownothing dumbarse.
When people vote they exhibit their preferences rather than rejecting a null of those preferences. Voters make a choice by selecting a person or an idea that they support, in some cases more so than the alternatives. And least of all do voters reject the preferences and ideals of others. In the case of Wisconsin a majority of voters sided with Walker, I would assume for a variety of reasons. When those supporting voters are likely to suffer economically from their own choices at the polls it seems reasonable to look for an answer to why they would do that, hurt their own futures. Fear, bigotry and ignorance are likely candidates for motivations behind self defeating behavior. We will see what the future brings.
I can only delete posts…2 of Bryan’s and two of Dan’s.
Buff,
No bloat links? Too bad.
I also think you are simply baiting readers to watch them jump around. Why? You are perfectly able and smart to find good material.
To Jack and Dan….Voter preference articles and psych stuff is available. How do voters choose in any given election? It must vary a lot.
Zig heil! Gotta march in lockstep here. No dissenting opinions allowed! Pretty weak Rdan. Unable to refute something… delete. Very nice.
Well, it’s not surprising. All this blog is is a glorified lefty mutual admiration society.
Don’t worry, I know you’ll delete this. After all, the left is all about tolerance and diversity of opinion. LOL!
I made this post short for your sake. I didn’t want you to lose too much of your valuable writing time. So little time for you and so many straw men, sophisms, and canards to regurgitate? hehe
Here’s another point to delete:
Why don’t you quit being an intellectually lazy smart ass and write something with some substance. Really, the best you can do is ridicule the lack of definition for “bloated government?”
My post was sooooooo crazy and warranted deletion because I suggested that instead of focusing on lack of a definition for “bloated” that one might not consider it unusual for a person to have a problem with a goverment or entity whose expenditures EXCEEDED revenues.
Go ahead and delte me again Einstein. We both know it’s because you opened your mouth and made yourself look like a dumbarse.
Rdan,
Here’s another post to censor due to unwelcome content:
Why don’t you quit being an intellectually lazy smart ass and write something with some substance? The best you can do is ridicule the lack of definition for “bloated government?” Really?
My post was sooooooo crazy and warranted deletion because I suggested that instead of focusing on lack of a definition for “bloated” that one might not consider it unusual for a person to have a problem with a goverment or entity whose expenditures EXCEEDED revenues.
Go ahead and delete me again Einstein. It’s not my fault you post intellectually indefensible content. Waaaahhhhh! Somebody took a canard or sophism or straw man and threw it back in my face! nice. LOL