Real Personal Consumption Data

Today’s personal income data release was interesting.

Overwhelming, everyone is reaching the conclusion that the economy is strengthening and that stronger consumer spending is a major factor behind this conclusion.

But today’s report shows that we now have three consecutive months of zero growth in real personal consumption expenditures( PCE ) — the single largest component of real GDP. The report shows that as of January the first quarter growth rate for real PCE is zero.

Just a warning to be careful of accepting the consensus view of a strengthening economy.