Hiroshima, Nagasaki, and the Largest Absolute Drop in Private Employment Since the US Started Keeping Records
A commenter at Steve Benen’s Washington Monthly blog was grousing (correctly, as spencer notes in comments) that Benen had allocated all of the 2009 change (read:drop) in private-sector jobs to Obama, while GWB was in office for the first 19.5 daysduring the time the employment data for January was gathered.
Turns out that there were 841,000 private-sector jobs lost in January of 2009—the most in any month in the 2000s—so it might have made a difference.*
I assumed that, since the population continually increases, that was probably the largest monthly job loss since the data was first recorded in January of 1939.
I was wrong. By a wide margin. The Top 30 single-month drops in U.S. Private Sector employment history since February of 1939:
The highlighted months are since the beginning of NBER’s declaration of the Great Recession. But it appears that V-J Day also signalled an end to employment for more than 1.75 million people.
*Note, by the way, that November and December of 2008 are also in the Top Ten, so calling the January, 2009, layoffs part of the normal post-Xmas letdown appears dubious.
Technically the data for the employment report is collected in the week of the month that includes the 12th of the month and Obama was inaugurated on the 20th of the month.
Consequently, as is always the case 100% of the employment in January when the Presidency changes hands is during the term of the President leaving office.
The commentator at Benen’s blog is just showing his ignorance.
Which means that the commenter was correct that 1/2009 should be in the Bush graphic (though they did neglect that 1/2001 should be in the Clinton graphic). Indeed, to be accurate and balanced, the “years” in the graph should run from February through January.
I believe you are wrong what VJ signified. Unemployment rates are the percentage of noninstitutional civilians who don’t have jobs (and the gradation of “don’t have jobs” depends on whether its U1, U2, etc.) VJ moved a lot of people out the military and into the civilian workforce very rapidly, more rapidly, in fact, than the marketplace could adjust by creating jobs for them.
The nice thing about the postwar is that everyone had savings since nobody could buy anything since 1942.
Also this was still a one-paycheck-per-household economy so the women got ejected and the men got back to work.
And assigning blame helps in what way? The Prsident gets to piddle with his library if him and his party don’t come up with something the voting public believes will turn things around. Suggestions that have a hope of being implemented?