The current low level of long term interest rates is creating all types of debate about what it is suppose to signify and what investors are discounting.

Maybe they are not signaling anything and it is just a return to normal for interest rates. For example, from 1871 to 1960 long Treasuries were below 4% some 75%of the time. Over the long sweep of history very low rates were more the norm than the high rates of recent decades. Maybe the recent history was the exception and we are now just returning to a more normal level of rates.

P.S. I came back later and replaced the first chart back to 1921 with one back to 1871.