Federal pay freeze

Glad you posted it.  First thing I thought was Nixon when I heard the news.  Wanted to say something here.

God, how little we learned and how much less we have retained from our nations life experience.

Most government jobs are locked in via union and civil service protection, so private sector workers are unlikely to get jobs even if they wanted them.

Except in the infantry, of course.

I am not a crook!

I worked for Nixon. My pay was friz by Nixon and Carter continued that excellent effort to reduce the size of the federal government. Clinton and Gore did their part by reducing the federal workforce by 275K FTE’s during the 90’s. The USPS is not included in this number of lost jobs. Their workforce is controlled by a separate budget process.

Now, as to why people can’t get federal jobs, it’s because most of them especially in facilities services, engineering, IT and defense have been contracted out. Contractors do not recruit through OPM competitive hiring processes. The Unions don’t hire anyone and have nothing to do with the OPM recruitment procedures that are now in place. Most domestic agencies have had hiring freezes off and on and/or extremely limited recruitment since the ’80’s.

Ilsm has explained the federal jobs program known as the US military here in detail. In addition, no one knows how many contract employees actually work in projects for the US government. Millions, of course, but they aren’t federal employees and get paid piece work by the contract and are then let go. The cost of employing them is not material in controlling the size of the federal government. No matter what it costs. So, s_t_r, it’s not the unions and it’s not civil service rules. It’s Congress, silly! NancyO

The message is clear we should all be afraid of losing our jobs. If we are afraid we will work for less or work harder. Bull.

NO,

Thanks!!

Contractors in the DoD workplace are largely retired guys, with an “in” or connections to “guys” in the “non personal services” company all of whom have links to “insiders” who determine what labor rates to order and how many.  Neither the orders for non personal services, nor the “non personal services” are delivering any service other than to help make it look like they “insiders” are managing their “realm” funded by US deficits.

The “non personal services” contracting thing got rid of the OPM review of the labor category and rates so they could increase salaries without anyone asking.

I watched one agency decide to have the ‘manpower “folks review the non personal services” contractor billed labor categories, managing like they are employees which is not the n”on personal services” contract type but….  Don’t ask don’t tell (DADT) about fraud waste and abuse.

Then the managers figured out how to get the manpower guys off from asking the functional experts whether it made sense for a $100/hour “non personal services” contractor to be hired to sit around advising……

Contracting out civil service jobs makes it a lot easier to get away with honest services fraud, and buy the F-35 at 76% (much more to come for much less airplane) price explosion and that don’t fly enough to be tested.

Jack, makes sense what you say. Add to the dastardly act of the T.S.A., we’s in for a tuff sledding, me thinks. One thing is sure, “O” is going to lose many votes, if he doesn’t pull a Palin, which he might do. Won’t that be just ducky? Could the handwriting be on the wall? Who ever said “A little revolution now & then, is a good thing”, must have had today’s events in mind.

jim a,
My point is that Obama and most others, especially yhe media, are claiming that the “sacrifice” must be shared.  Well I’m all for sacrifice on a broad basis.  How is a federal pay freeze in the absence of a tax hhike for the rest of the public fair and balanced?  Why is the impact so narrow?  If people are going to pitch in to reduce the deficit then it needs to be all people and those who have been enjoying the greatest gain from govenment policies owe the greatest share of the burden.  Holding public employees out as the first line of cost reduction rather than achieving a balanced deficit reduction plan is hardly fair nor balanced.

There are major cost centers having to do with Iraq, Afghanistan, unbalanced tax reductions, corporate welfare and (the grand daddy of all imbalnces) a screwed up, make that skewed out, income distribution.

save_the_rustbelt, two problems in obtaining federal employment are the time that it takes to be hired, which can approach a year depending on the type of background investigation required, and a second problem is lack of career status for mid career candidates.  Many federal jobs are restricted to current employees of the agency.

No one should be happy about pay freezes, but having been in Flint Michigan a couple of days ago it is hard to have too much sympathy for anyone with a secure job and good benefits.

There are lots of people with no job and no benefits. More methinks, than the official statistics indicate.

Right, Ripley. One reason that many federal jobs are hired in-house is that they represent promotions for experienced people, skilled in exactly the functions that the agency performs. Also, you have something called career-ladder jobs. Claims reps in SSA hire on as GS-5’s and are promoted at one-year intervals to the GS-11 level (GS-5-7-9 career ladder.) It takes 3 years to learn the basics of the job. Yep. Them jobs is hard. And, even then it takes many more years to be a really efficient performer. A lot of people enter a career ladder and never go any farther. These people are the career core workforce of the federal govt. There is such a thing as institutional knowledge and these people have it.

So, by freezing fed pay, the President on his own motion is punishing his career people while at the same time sending anyone who can leave running for the door. Result–more retirements for sure. Who needs this after 30 years of putting up with idiots in Congress and the WH? Not someone whose frozen pay will not add a dime to his retirement/SSA check, whose taxes stay the same, and whose deductions (such as they are) are on the block. I keep asking myself, Where is the sign saying, “This way to the End of the World.” The natl debt isn’t eating the world now. Taxes aren’t high even on the highest earners/nonearners. SS keeps poverty stable among the older population. The main and critical problem is jobs.

Whacking fed workers’ pay ain’t gonna do squat for the debt because Congress will just spend whatever it wants to. 28 Billion bucks is less than it costs to feed/house/provision the troops in Iraq/AfPak every year. Remember, the R’s have the House, where the money is. They don’t have the best record for fiscal restraint. Also, some govt functions are essential. Like air traffic controllers. Or, Treasury people who process payments for federal programs. And, ahem, Congress’s paychecks. This mess is self-imposed and ridiculous. 85% of the people in this country are still employed and paying their mortgages. This isn’t the end of the world…UNLESS

UNLESS…. Nostradamus and the Maya are right! 2012 is it, guys! “My name is Inigo Montoya. You killed my father. Prepare to die!” Oh, wrong movie. Dr. Strangelove? No, that doesn’t fit either. Umm. Apocalypse Now. That’s the ticket! NancyO

Nancy,

This is the gist of an e-mail I received from a ffriend/ormer GS who retired in Apr 10.

More pain for the folks in the career work force.

And the new system is not as good retirement and the vesting is still 5 years I think on the matches.

There goes the failed new (non merit ) personnel systems out the door.

Reminds one of Sisyphus………………

rusty

you could take the civil service test.  i did when i needed a job pretty bad.  the gummint hired me and paid me about 80% of what the private sector would have paid if they had hired me.  

on the other hand, my boss had a hard time firing me when she was afraid i might blow the whistle on her.  some times those civil service protections are useful… for the country.

but it’s unlikely any actual details will affect the thinking of gummint bad free enterprise good fundamentalists.

The federal government prefers to hire and promote anybody who is not a white male. While it has been statistically established that blacks are dumb and need preferential treatment in order to succeed, there is no reason however that other races be given the same affirmative treatment. By intentionally hiring less able people the federal government has lost effiencies as well trust and legitamacy. Fat dumb disaffected people with 85 IQ’s do not make good civil servents. They are over paid, under worked and are part of the problem with this country. A federal pay freeze is a good place to start. So would getting rid of affirmative action employees.

yes,

there is a worldwide … well, i can’t call it conspiracy… just call it movement… to reduce workers to a status of complete dependency so you’ll work for what they offer and under whatever conditions they impose.

this has nothing to do with economics.  it’s just the way they like it.

They have a mosque there too.

You cannot tell how many cars belong to soldiers or GS civilians and how many are support contractors.

Hint:  look for the BMW’

The extent to which it is a good or bad idea really depends on what they do with the money instead.

Just paying down the deficit – not so good.

Sending it to local school districts that are otherwise actually going to fire someone – not so bad.

Ilsm–You nailed it on the way the contracting system works in federal agencies. NO

Are the building new hardware or refurbishing hardware beat up in the gulf?

I think most of the real work nuts-and-bolts work is done by UAW members.

Many federal jobs are restricted to current employees of the agency.
 Often because they are under a mandate to reduce their headcount. 

I lived through it in DoD from ’93 until I left for greener pastures in ’98.  Whole skill sectors of GS 08XX (engineers etc), tech managers (03XX) and other technicians were ‘surplused’!!

Some took early retirement, some became non techies like project managers and some just escaped………..

The new contract guys are supple when it comes to the non techie managers letting the sellers off the hook for duties to perform in contracts.

One major causereplaced with contracted techie folks who never told a contractor to perform.

If the government guy has no backbone the contractors don’t either.

People or qualified people? I have a government job and all of the people who are qualified to take my job never lost theirs.

Reading most of what has been said so far, material which is of a high level,  I can’t help but feel that most Americans have been mislead for so long, that it has become impossible to analyze our circumstances unless one learns to get news from obscure sources. (I start near the end of the google pages and search in reverse order)

Austerity is a given because the US has been demoted by the ROW. This mostly occurred at the recent G-20 meetings in S. Korea but that was just the culmination of what has been coming for many years.

What it comes down to, is that the value of foreign investment was made dubious by the adapting of a fiat system in ’71. Since then,  capital creation has only been constrained by the potential for profit, or by risk factors. And so, there is no actual demand for exogenous lending, what demand for capital seems to exist is merely an illusion that has been upheld by a tacit arrangement (Globalization). Those who question the ‘right’ of the wealthy to seek rents have routinely been labeled as Communists etc. So… nations that could easily create capital on a keyboard, are instead obliged to tolerate sharing their gains with wealthier nations because they must. This is part of the price nations pay to be included in the international order. But there is no question that ‘investment capital’ has an artificial value in cross-border transactions.

Naturally though, there is more to development than lending, the sharing of knowledge and technology etc., but the value of those enticements has also diminished. And this and  the dubious value of capital that has left nations which became too dependent on their financial services sectors, in situations that have made those nations parasitic insofar as the ROW is concerned, nations such as the US, the UK, Switzerland, Belgium and etc. And this is being expressed by bubbles caused by excess liquidity combined with foreign inflows, and by ‘spillovers’.

So… when Guido Mantega, Brazil’s Fin Min, said that Brazil is “prepared to do whatever necessary” to stop the real from rising further, and when a long list of other Fin Mins made it clear that their nations were supportive of this, and conversely unwillingly to support the US attempts to blame China, this meant that the US was being forced to take full responsibility for the GFC. Essentially, the emerging nations are in a position of strength because they have a justifiable right to print their respective currencies and use those to purchase FX dollars. This will of course do the opposite of what the US tried to do in part with QE/ZIRP, that is to shift debt ‘on’ to the US instead of the reverse. And the justification, put simply, is the reverse of what US positions have been many times in the past: ‘it is our currency, but it is your problem’. Unfortunately for the US, that statement cuts both ways.

More importantly though, the leverage that has for decades allowed the US to ignore its ‘spillover’ effects, was its economic importance to the global economy. But as I briefly explained above, the demand for foreign capital is of a dubious value; and the fact that the US policy of using global savings through dollar recycling via t-bills, to fund pointless wars and tax cuts and conspicuous consumption, when those funds should have been invested in what could have prevented the current shortfall in global AD, these examples of poor leadership, and others, have changed ‘everything’ going forward for the US.

So my point is, even though many of the participants here have a wealth of experience that is typically very helpful in understanding our society, in this case it is potentially misleading. When Nancy argues for example: “Besides, I worked in the government too long to […]

I don’t doubt your take on the political reality, but it is not entirely black and white.

Our local school district paid for 15 teachers with stimulus money this year.  I doubt we will be able to find funds for all of them next year.  A local pay freeze would make a difference in layoffs.  So would additional federal money.

Nancy,

I’m sorry, I did not mean to imply that you are naive. I’m mainly just trying to say that there is a viable reason to see our debt in a new light. And unless someone makes a dedicated effort to get news from sources other than the MSM in the US and mostly Europe too, what I explained above is easy to miss, those responsible for the stupid choices that are involved would need to reveal themselves as idiots, basically. And the MSM would need to admit that it failed in its responsibilities too, and etc.

First of all Nixon’s pay freeze was for the entire country not just the federal government.  Secondly almost noone quits a government job, which is all that you need to know about how they pay.  He should also reduce the new hire pay rates for every position by 20%, and see if there is a problem getting qualified applicants.  If government behavedmore like a business it would solve a lot.  For more impecible logic, join me on http://www.freemarketsfreepeople.net 

RIL, for all I know, I am naive. I don’t see so much of a change in the government’s financial situation to produce such a revolutionary change in how the government manages its business. As far as the MSM is concerned, it’s clearly useless. I am speaking only from my perspective and am untroubled (snicker) by a sophisticated view of our national economy. However, my main purpose in coming here is to hear what more informed people have to say. And, I will consider your perspective on our current situation. NancyO

MG
That’s a really stupid remark.  There isn’t a communist idea on this entire thread, nor the blog for that matter.  There are lots of populist sentiments being expressed.   The popular term is liberal, but that term is hackneyed from excess use.  Like Fox News the thrust is to be fair and balanced.  Unlike Fox News the intention is genuine.  No one has suggested that the government own the means of production.  No one has suggested that the private owners of production and of capital be prevented from plying their trades.  At best we are expecting those that do own a piece of the rock acknowledge that they are coddled by a capitalist government and that that government has expenses to be met and paid and that they are the holders of most of the income and wealth of the nation.

“He should also reduce the new hire pay rates for every position by 20%, and see if there is a problem getting qualified applicants.  If government behavedmore like a business it would solve a lot.”

The site must be suffering from a sudden on set of ideational dysfunction.  Mr. Tergent doesn’t mind expressing his selfish attitudes in public, but he should try to control the vapidity of his thought process.  Behave like a business?  Which model do you suggest?  Recently the economy was nearly done in by the deceit and deception model of business.  Not too long ago we had Enron and Arthur Anderson to take our business like cues from.  The SEC is currently making a small show of attempting to control insider trading violations.  Of course we could probably save large quantities of government cash by off shoring its work.  State governments could hire thousands of Chinese workers to come over to repair our roads, tunnels and bridges.  A deal could be struck with the Chinese government to do the work with their exploited population of laborers.  In fact we could contract with the People’s Republic to run our own government.  They seem to know how to deal with the malcontents that often spot their ideas on this blog.

“Yeah, I’m a U.S. capitalist who is very concerned about the projected debt to GDP ratio of the U.S. Government.  No question about that.”

Well then put your money where your mouth is.  Vote for an increase in taxes on high income earners.  Vote for an increase in the estate tax.  Let the heirs earn their keep.  And what about an increase in the capital gains tax?  When did capital become more important than the labor that  capital needs to produce its goods and services?  No, I’m not a socialist nor a communist.  i just expect that those who gain the most from a situation will bear the greater share of the burden of paying the costs of that situation.  That’s not anti-capitalism.  That’s anti greed.

Tergemt

you may not have noticed, may not be capable of noticing that the government is not a business.  it does things that need to be done but are hard to make a profit from.

government workers tend to be risk averse so they keep their bad jobs even while slowly losing their minds.  but those jobs still have to be done.  the second hardest part is putting up with an ignorant public that feels entitled to act like a two year old whenever it visits a government office.

rusty,
I’m just curious.  What sacrifice are you making, or are you prepared to make since you’re apparently satisfied to see others who can hardly afford the cut be forced to sacrifice before all the rest have to do their part.  If Obama is looking to trim the fat, he’s looking in the wrong places.  If  the workers, public or private, are doing their jobs where is the justification to reduce their compensation.  How is that reasonable when asking the top of the heap to pay a bigger share is so anathema?

Thanks for bring back a fond memory, AMC!!!

Hey if we’re going to have a standoff can we at least get the capitalists to show up?  And bring some real arguments?  

These mouth breathing faux news droolers are a poor substitute.  

Well I work for a different MSC under AMC.

MG as usual is wrong and responds to what he would like to have been written, not what was actually written.

Nixon actually implemented a federal pay freeze.  Carter and/or Reagan may have talked about one but they did not implement one.

The JOLTS data shows that both the quit and hire rates for the federal government are only a fraction of that for the private sector.  How does that disprove the point I made that government employees regularly leave government for higher paying jobs in the private sector and you virtually never see private sector workers leaving to take higher paying jobs with the federal government?

Alto
If its “very clear why no issue of economics are ever going to be properly exposed” (what ever that may mean) why don’t you spell out that clarity so that we can all understand what it is that we’re dooing to obfuscate the situation.  It’s not all that clear to we less clear minded people.  Please elaborate on your cirtique.

spencer – main post:

spencer – “I just want to remind everyone that the last president to implement a federal pay freeze was Nixon.  And of course we all remember how that worked.”
 
You know very well that the actions undertaken by the Congress and President Nixon were driven by inflation concerns.  That has nothing to do with President Obama’s proposal. 
 
spencer – “Just after that was when I left government for about a 33% raise in total compensation — including fringe benefits and retirement.  So much for over paid federal employees.”
 
So what?  Your personal experience over thirty-five years ago doesn’t have anything to do with current world reality regarding federal wage and benefits.  It’s a lame claim. 
 
When is the last time you ran a fed wage calculator and compared wage rates by locality which shows base salary, locality pay, and may or may not reflect benefits?
 
spencer – “If federal employees are so overpaid why isn’t there a constant flow of people leaving the private sector for the high paying jobs in government rather than the other way around.” 
 
Cite the DOL JOLTS data or OPM data that back up your claim.  You can’t and you know it.  Another bogus claim.   
 
spencer – “The funny thing about this is it always seems to be republicans who are leaving government because of the low pay for government employees.”
 
This appears to be another bogus claim.  Where is your proof?   
—–

spencer – comment on thread:

spencer – “MG as usual is wrong and responds to what he would like to have been written, not what was actually written.”
 
That’s a lie.  I only compared what you wrote to the bulk of what has been written elsewhere.  Your post is junk.  It’s hard to believe that is the best that you can as an economist. 
 
spencer – “Nixon actually implemented a federal pay freeze.  Carter and/or Reagan may have talked about one but they did not implement one.”
 
It’s a fact that President Reagan and President Clinton stated that they wanted to freeze federal wages.   
 
spencer – “The JOLTS data shows that both the quit and hire rates for the federal government are only a fraction of that for the private sector.  How does that disprove the point I made that government employees regularly leave government for higher paying jobs in the private sector and you virtually never see private sector workers leaving to take higher paying jobs with the federal government?”
 
The DOL JOLTS data and the OPM data show that the federal and state/local employment quit rates are the lowest of all industries with the occasional exception of the mining and logging industry.  There is not normally a close comparison among the other industries.  You have offered no proof to support your claim.  You’re just running your mouth.  
 
Your entire post was meaningless junk.

Nancy, you’re faking it. 

Alto Pluto,

Some of the comments are certainly lopsided.  I think they mean well, though.  More emotion than thought on occasion. 

Stick around.  Might get interesting!

Jack,

I support more shared sacrifice across the board than most would be willing to touch.  I am very concerned about our timeline for action.  I am not convinced that the Congress will undertake enough action to avoid a major crisis around 2025.  I am not sure that they have enough time to pull it off, considering the post-recession economy is dragging along.   

ilsm,

I’m all for nailing the hell out of the billionaires along with the rest of the U.S. taxpayers including corporations.  Everyone needs a piece of this action – pain across the board. 

I would do something else.  I was raise the income tax rate on upper income earners to around 45 percent.  Let’s do it and get it over with, and still restore the previous tax rates for everyone else. 

MG, said: “The DOL JOLTS data and the OPM data show that the federal and state/local employment quit rates are the lowest of all industries…”  
 
A caution here.  Conflating federal with state and local employment compares apples with oranges.  They both may be fruits, but their environmentals are significantly different. Being able to borrow, the federal situation, to continue operations is far different than living with “balanced budget” constitutional requirements.  Roles and missions between the three levels of Govt can be dramatically different while at the same time only somewhat overlapping.  In the fruits category, the all provide Govt services, but those services have little overlap.
 
Another caution.  Comparing federal quits/hires with the private sector is more like comparing fruits with vegetables.  A major difference here is the job and responsibility mix.  labor rate jobs do exist in the federal Govt, but are far lower in percentage than the private sector.  Moreover, there is a much higher percentage of management level jobs in the federal Govt than in the private sector.  Even the labor rate jobs go to experienced hands at a higher percentage versus being entry level jobs in the private sector.  
 
MG a final note:  The number of comments on this thread, a side issue at best, to the number of actual comments to your attempt to have a discussion re: fixing the growing deficit, show how the “commenters on a left of center economics blog” are willing to ignore a serious economic issue.

Amen

Alto is looking for serious people analysis, or what happens in Fox………….

ilsm, rdan, MG,
Have I beern saying anything other than just that.  Obama is the good cop in a classic good cop/bad cop routine.  He only looks better than McConnell and Co.  Did we not hear a total idiot from the congress tell us on national TV that the unemployed don’t spend their money.  No, not all at once.  It takes less than a week to accomplish though it wouldn’t be too tough to blow it on one trip to the grocer.  The entire “debate” is total BS.  Imagine, Bowles and Simpson are supposed to be two sides of an ideological divide.  The only difference between them seems to be that one is a highly paid shill for the banks and the other is a mean spirited old fool who used to represent a herd of cows in the Senate.

Your grammar is an indication of why any out of work person is not suitable for a civil service.  Civil servants represent the United States. .  

oh, I guess I should factor that I can do without all of the above, right??  Wow, the rich do get richer!!!