Election thinking
Mark Thoma hosted Robert Kuttner at Firedoglake, the introduction begins with these words:
It’s possible to give two very different interpretations of the Obama presidency so far. The first is a relatively positive interpretation. Proponents of this view argue that even though Obama has faced a united GOP willing and able to use filibusters to thwart initiatives, and even though he has had opposition within his own party to progressive initiatives, he has still managed to rack up an impressive list of achievements. Take health care as an example. The health care legislation wasn’t all that progressives wanted, not by a long shot. But the legislation is an impressive start and, importantly, it leaves the door open to further change. Though people forget, programs such as Social Security or Medicare weren’t perfect at first, but were improved substantially over time.
Rdan here…I think two interpretations makes for a framing of the issue which is okay for a limited format and begins a conversation. The HCA example was an early effort that does not quite define the problem, however, in that a case could be made for HCA as a reasonable first step, but still does not address the political methods used. Eventhough the result might be defensible at least to some, how does that accrue to the process and message that was also produced, which appeared to be more closely aligned to Pres. Obama’s policy stance to start?
Proponents of this view also argue that a more aggressive posture would not have done any good, and it may have even been harmful…
Rdan..Some might argue this, but I think many held their concern in check more in confusion over the strategy and hopeful expectation in the beginning.
Obama doesn’t have FDR’s filibuster proof majority…
Rdan…Hmmmm…don’t buy this at all if it is indeed an argument…I believe it is an impression that is encouraged by DC, but choices were made. There were early indications of the direction Pres. Obama had in mind by his choices for advisors.
The negative view, and this is the view taken in Robert Kuttner’s book, sees the last year and half very differently.
But … this hopeful scenario is not the way Barack Obama’s first year unfolded. Instead of making a radical break with Wall Street…This book is an exploration of why Obama did not rise to seize a Roosevelt moment.
Mark Thoma notes:
There doesn’t seem to be an urge to fight toe to toe and to take the case directly to the public in Reganesque style as a means of putting pressure on legislators to support the administration’s policy intitiatives. Instead, we get backroom deals that compromise away core principles. And all of this in the search of bipartisanship that turns out, in the end, to be nothing but Lucy and the football.
Comments at Firedoglake were more varied than I expected, and comments at Economist View are worth a read. However, the comments indicate a need to come to terms not only with issues but how to proceed with the situation as it stands.
Maybe electing an inexperiencved junior senator to the presidency was not such a hot idea.
Hillary in 2012! (?)
How about Obama as Coke and (name your Republican) as Pepsi? Rahm Emmanuel and Magnetar. Tim Geithner and Wall Street fraud. War criminal Stanley McChrystal.
All the debate about Democrat versus Republican is poor Kabuki theater.
Blurt –
No, no, and more no!
It’s true that Democrat is the new Republican. However, It’s also true that the Repugs have sailed off the political landscape to a fantasy land where vacuuous no-nothing Sara Palin is their darling, and the idiocy promoted by Glen Beck is something God handed him on stone tablets.
From a progressive standpoint, Obama is weak tea, sure. In contrast, though, any Repug would be an unmitigated diasaster.
We are truly, seriously screwed.
JzB
So Pepsi is re-tooling their formula, big deal! And I disagree that any Repug would be a disaster, but if you want to speak in generalities, than any Dem or Repug would be an unmitigated disaster.
It is not a progressive viewpoint at all to bemoan the appointments of Geithner, Emmanuel, Summers, the re-appointment of Bernanke, the reliance on criminals like Rubin. Labels are intended to divide, and deflect, and mask the truth. I could see real conservatives up in arms over this, too.
I do agree that we are seriously screwed.
Obama
never had a chance at a Roosevelt moment. he was elected too soon. it would have taken another three years of Republican policies to reduce the people to such a state of desperation they would have embraced strong measures. as it is Obama arrived in time to patch the leak, sort of, and give the Republicans more lying room.
not that i seriously disagree with the characterization of Obama as not having what it takes.
what’s this I hear about the IMF “suggesting” the US cut Social Security. Who the hell is the IMF?
Coberly,
Obama is in the banksters pocket. With all due respect, WTF are you talking about?
Blurt
since i agree with you about obama and the bansters pocket, what the hell do you think i am talking about.
the IMF? well what i said.
Obama never having a chance at a Roosevelt moment is what I disagree with. He had a chance to tell Wall Street to take a hike. Instead, he surrounded himself with Wall Street frauds like Rubin, Summers and Geithner. Roosevelt in his first term passed substantial Wall Street reforms, not the watered down crap that Friend of Angelo Chris Dodd is ramming through. Any banksters going to jail under Obama? Nuff said.
Blurt
again I agree with you. but you ignore my point. it’s not much fun arguing with people you agree with because they can’t read: Roosevelt came into office after the Depression had been running for a while and people were hurting and ready for big changes. Obama came into office before the “great recession” had really got off the ground. people were not yet hurting enough to shake loose from the stupid doctrines they have been taught to believe for the past 30 years.
i am disposed to agree with you that even if Obama had come into office later, he would not have been a Roosevelt. but I was making a different point. not yours. not disagreeing with yours. just a point of my own. sorry about that.
IMF = International Monetary Fund. Two seconds on Bing. Go here for details. www.imf.org
As for an FDR moment. 1) Obama is no FDR (or LBJ for that matter – no experience). 2) We can thank your deity of choice for the luck that allowed us to avoid an FDR moment for Obama. Progressivism is not a path the US should tread, I have to deal with enough nanny-statists crap already, and I live in Texas!
(I can’t change this font for some reason!)
Islam will change
coberly,
This is the Dems moment. They have for the past 4 years controled congress and for the past 2 the Presidency & Congress. They own it all. We all are seeing the accomplishments of being led by the Democrats!
Which do you think we will hit first 15% U3 or 6% under a Dem President?
Islam will change
But now is it really going to matter who gets elected?? I mean seriously, The too big to fails ( Large Companies) are going to continue to get bailedout, while the rest of the economy ( Small business ) get destoryed. http://www.dailyjobcuts.com .
It really sad to see, how the dismantling of the US is taking place.
kharris
There was this third-party candidate, see, and he went around making the argument that since Al Gore was such a mainstream guy, and the mainstream was bad, then real Democrats should vote against Gore and for the third-party guy to make a point, to swing the Democratic party leftward, to its roots. Central to the argument was that the choice between Gore and Bush was no choice at all. Well, we can only guess what a Gore presidency would have been like, but I’m guessing one war instead of two, no torture of political prisoners and no frittering away of structural budget neutrality to provide spoils to supporters. Oh, and maybe somewhat tighter environmental oversight. I’m guessing the business that there was no real choice between Gore and Bush was the stupidest political assertion of its day.
So for those of you who think both Democrats and Republicans are likely to be “unmitigated disasters”, I don’t think “unmitigated” means what you think it means. There is a choice between bad and worse. When you have worked hard enough in the political garden to come up with a truly good batch of politicians, you let me know. Till then, I’ll take bad over future-crushing, country-wrecking stupid and selfish any day.
Finally, Buffy’s dislike for abiding by the rules that keep civilization on track is not a reason for anybody else to oppose progressivism. Buffy’s views are, in fact, one of the better arguments for supporting progressivism. And the constant repetition of the “Democrats own it” line is mere political dishonesty. Bush was president for part of the time Buffy claims the Democrats “own”, and the Republicans have used the filibuster in unprecedented ways. It is no longer a tool for preventing the rest of the country’s elected representatives from beating up on one guy’s constituents. It is now a way to prevent the political agenda of the majority from being legislated.
Please don’t make me repeat my lectures about how propaganda is done. You know, constant repetition of the same damned dishonest thing, instead of a back-and-forth discussion? Like “they own it” somewhere in any discussion of politics. I will, ya know. I have all those comments saved in a little folder. Don’t make me use them.
Coberly,
I would not expect this Depression to be like the last one. Gradualism is the preferred route. Look at how many folks are on food stamps – over 10% of the population. Are there protests in the streets? Look at the decreasing standard of living over the last few decades. A sublte(?) transfer of wealth is underway, just move along, nothing to see here.
You seem to be arguing for an event that would never happen even if Obama came into office next term, which I believe is your point. News flash – this Depression is underway, abetted by Obama. He has his chance now, but he is blowing it big time.
Kharris,
Obama is a Dem, he owns it as does the Dem party. You’ve had control of everything since Jan 2009. Before that the Dem controlled Congress passed all the legislation since Jan 2007. Everything. Not one bill hit Bush’s desk without the Dem controlled Congress approving it. Saying that’s not true is dishonesty at its finest.
You can make excuses all you want but when we start seeing Obamavilles we know who to blame.
Progressivism is all about control. Nany state tyranny with a smile on it. What its not about is individual liberty. Read the NYT’s #1 best-selling book on the subject.
Islam will change
BTW best comment I’ve seen about the election:
JMG says:
July 12th, 2010 at 12:30 pm
The Democrats deserve to be destroyed in the election. Of course, so do the Republicans.
RDan it’s just not the same environment it was back then. FDR had almost half of the Republicans on board for some or all parts of the New Deal.
Social security wasn’t even in the first part. If I remember correctly it came in the second part.
Over 100 new Democrats were sworn in that year. They had greater majorities and Republicans actually didn’t all vote in lock step against anything a Dem would do back then. It’s just not the same. Those Republicans from back then would be kicked out of the party today.
Republicans have gone off the deep end. It’s too early to be making predictions about the fall elections. Everything can change between now and September, as it did in 2008. I don’t think Republicans have a brand to sell which is why you have been seeing all those Republicans in the past few elections brand themselves as Independent. Say what you will about Obama, I think he is threading the needle. He isn’t working in the same environment as FDR but that hasn’t stopped him from getting something done. I will say so far this mid-term election isn’t ramping up to be like the 2006 or even 1996 elections.
well, you understand the gradualism point anyway.
kharris
yes. i voted for Gore. and i voted for Obama in spite of knowing better. and i think we are better off with Obama than we would have been with McCain… by a lot. but it doesn’t make me any happier seeing the new deal handed to the bankers under glass.
Buff
I know despair from arguing with “progressives,” so i can’t even say you are wrong about what would happen if they had the power. But I think you are wrong to imagine that Obama is a progressive, or that Dems are progressives. They are all just politicians. They’d be glad to do good if it would get them elected, so they could get the perks.
Meanwhile what the hell do you think “conservatism” is about? It’s about control. Tyranny with a hypocritical grin.
I think we can do better than that.
So you believe that folks have not shaken off the stupid doctrines that they have believed in for the last 8 years yet? Why do you think there is such anger in the country then? Are you hoping for a total collapse of society to then usher in what? Are you some kind of Bolshevik or something?
Blurt
must be. because i watch people watch fox news and they still believe gummint is the enemy and lower taxes will save the country if only those bleeding hearts and tree huggers can be got out of the way. and they weren’t thinking of asking nicely.
and i’m not hoping for a total collapse. just telling you that without one you won’t see a roosevelt moment.
Bear,
Thanks for the note. What you see is a question in my own thinking.
Times are different, so the moments would look different as well. But Democrats have tried political messaging from the polls and have ceded the vision to frame to Rs to date.
The Republicans look to be getting ready to nominate nutcases but better framed and messaged so far. I do have a sympathetic feeling for kharris’s point of view.
More to come on the issue.
What happened to the forced vote R and D as mandated point of view?
Rdan this situation is different for Republicans and Democrats. The Republican party can easily build messages that America wants to believe. There way doesn’t go against the grain. The Democratic party and especially the more progressive part of it cannot do well with messaging because their prescription is against the grain.
Who controls the message? How do people get their info? Are they even interested in facts and the truth or lies to placate them? When I said Obama is threading the needle, I mean he is doing exactly what he can do get the most that he can, at this time, in this environment.
Seriously, the progressive part of the Democratic party has almost no visibility day to day in Americans lives. The GOP does. They rule the airwaves, tv and print.
Serious thinkers on the right have finally gotten around to a full and open debate on the epistemic closure problem that’s plaguing the conservative movement. The issue, to put it in terms that even I can understand, because I didn’t study philosophy much in college: has the conservative base gone mad?
This matters to journalists, because I really do want to take Republicans seriously. Mainstream conservative voices are embracing theories that are, to use Julian Sanchez’s phrase, “untethered” to the real world.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2010/04/have-conservatives-gone-mad/39417/
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C04E6DF1E30F935A35753C1A9639C8B63
Lee Atwater
”You start out in 1954 by saying, ‘Nigger, nigger, nigger.’ By 1968 you can’t say ‘nigger’ — that hurts you. Backfires. So you say stuff like forced busing, states’ rights and all that stuff. You’re getting so abstract now [that] you’re talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you’re talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is [that] blacks get hurt worse than whites.
”And subconsciously maybe that is part of it. I’m not saying that. But I’m saying that if it is getting that abstract, and that coded, that we are doing away with the racial problem one way or the other. You follow me — because obviously sitting around saying, ‘We want to cut this,’ is much more abstract than even the busing thing, and a hell of a lot more abstract than ‘Nigger, nigger.”’
http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/republican-national-committee/michael-steele-acknowledges-gop-had-southern-strategy-for-decades/
“For the last 40-plus years we had a ‘Southern Strategy’ that alienated many minority voters by focusing on the white male vote in the South. Well, guess what happened in 1992, folks, ‘Bubba’ went back home to the Democratic Party and voted for Bill Clinton.”
I think that there will come a tipping point and the Democratic party platform will be going with the grain at some point. This is what Coberly is saying in his comments. The Great Depression was a serious tipping point that changed America.
When that happens it will be like a snowball rolling downhill. Progress will be exponential but we are not there yet. Maybe the next generation will provide that change of course.
Republicans complain about the deficit now but they still want those tax cuts? Well how do you plan on paying for them in this downturn? How can they say the wealthy deserve those tax cuts but all those unemployed people can go suck it? How can that message sell to the general public? Well they just say over and over again that the Democrats are going to raise your taxes and transfer your wealth to the poor (black). It’s the same old tricks that work.
This is the epitome of the problem in my mind. Americans jump at half baked oppurtunities or cons. We would love to be able to get everything we want without having to pay for it. There is a certain amount of cognitive dissonance required to not look too deeply for the truth. Now where is my easy button?
If you think an untethered and loser party like the Republicans can easily be worked around to get the kind of legislation you want, then you would be incorrect. They are extremely dangerous in this position imo. They don’t seem to mind breaking the law, torturing people, etc. They don’t mind fixing elections and setting up business relationships that equals a heads you lose, tails they win scenario for us. They don’t mind tanking America if it means they win. Back them into a corner and they might do something really crazy. I think Obama’s approach is better for our country.