Working the Refs

So there was this big snowstorm that hit the East Coast a couple of weeks ago. (Not the one this weekend, that dumped about 2′ of snow on Upstate New York and a little more than a foot here in suburban New Jersey; the one that wiped out D.C. and gave the Party of No an excuse to do nothing.)

Snow in February. What a surprise! Clearly, not something that happens every year.

My high school classmates and others in the Midwest see the notice and say, “Yeah, gosh, sounds like January and February here.”

But This One is Different. Maybe because it gave the U.S. press an excuse to pay no attention to Haiti. Maybe because closing down D.C. meant that all the pundits got to whine and reveal their suffering.

And, just maybe, because it has become the all-purpose excuse for the February Employment Report. Or any other hint that the world is not perfect, and those “green shoots” haven’t been eaten by starving deer who were then shot by Big Bank Hunters.

The Usual Suspects are already out in force.* And the hedging (not in the risk management sense) has begun:

“We will have to wait until March to see if February is an aberration or a fundamental sign that the recovery in sales will be more subdued than hoped,” [Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ director of industry analysis said].

So anything that can be marginally interpreted as positive will be The Crest of a Wave, while anything that makes those legendary shoots look as if they were artificial flowers will get the rousing “Wait Until March!” cry.

All we really know is that—thanks to Senator Bunning and a pliant Democratic “leadership”—March, not April, is the Cruelest Month for about 1.2 million normally-working Americans.

But, gosh, the job gains for February might be understated by 5-8% of that total. So let’s not do anything hasty.

*Yes, it’s “pick on Brad DeLong day.” Didn’t you get the memo? (Also, I can’t find discussion of the topic at any of the Other Usual Suspects, though I haven’t checked The Big Picture.)

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