Just how badly have the wheels come off the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) movement’s wagon? Well, the big news this week was the Dr Phil Jones, the center of the Climategate email scandals, and one of the lead reviewers on the latest IPCC reports has admitted that there has been not statisitcally significant warming since 1995. Additionally, he admitted that since 2002 there has been cooling. He also admitted the warming rate from 1970 was similar in rates seen in two other prior periods. Periods that were less influenced by man made green house gases. Finally, Jones admitted that the medieval warm period may have occurred and was possibly warmer than today’s warm period. Thus, putting a stake in the heart of the “unprecedented” warming argument.
The last IPCC report has finally been reviewed by skeptical eyes and has been found to be rife with errors or scientifically unsubstantiated findings.
The final effect of the IPCC report review failures, in my opinion, will substantially impact on the EPA findings when they are fought in courts. (Yes, plural) Not because of the science, but because the EPA failed to follow its own administrative standards and procedures.
All of these things happened the same week the Prez announced the creation of the new Climate Change Department during a blizzard that set a new total annual snow record for DC. Timing, timing timing!
I was wondering when you would get another chance to post on the ‘settled science” (Hahahaha!). AGW has been discredited and once again my point that the entire scam has been about gaining control and power over the masses by the enviromental wacko’s. The guys spewing this stuff never really beleived it – their actions showed the lie very clearly. Now the actual science, not the cooked-books science, is destroying the entire charade. Where’s Gore?
I’ll see if I can post a picture of my kids building a 6 foot high snowman. In Texas!
I know weather is not climate. But this was the largest snowstorm in recorded history down here (130 years). The kids had a great time and all my neighbors envied me becuase i was the only one with a snow shovel (and new how to use it). On the downside I got to shovel the mother in laws driveway and walks…
What was interesting was all the small (1-2 foot high) snowmen. My wife (Texas native) said they were that small becuase that was the ‘normal’ size for a snowman in Texas. Where I gew up (Ohio) normal was in the 5-6 ft range.
All melted off now but it was fun while it lasted.
AGW getting discredited is just icing on the cake. I wonder what the wacko’s will morph into in their never ending quest to tell us how to live, where to live, what to eat and otherwise crush individual freedom, for the “good of the children.”
Any bets on if any of those high speed bullet trains actually get built? I bet the environmentalist types will fight them tooth and nail…good work for lawyers but definitely not shovel ready. I doubt we will ever see them…
Phil Jones: …..there has been not statistically significant warming since 1995. Additionally, he admitted that since 2002 there has been cooling.
Q: If the problem is non-existant, why do we have libs stell pushing CO2 regulation?
A: buffpilot: the entire scam has been about gaining control and power over the masses.
How fortuitous is it that they renamed their cause “Climate Change” eh? That will work.
BTW, where are all you guys that so gratuitously insulted the few skeptics on this blog over the past few years? Turns out we were right and you were dupes. So much for your superior science aptitude.
Phil Jones: …..there has been not statistically significant warming since 1995. Additionally, he admitted that since 2002 there has been cooling.
Q: If the problem is non-existant, why do we have libs still pushing CO2 regulation?
A: buffpilot: the entire scam has been about gaining control and power over the masses.
How fortuitous is it that they renamed their cause “Climate Change” eh? That will work.
BTW, where are all you guys that so gratuitously insulted the few skeptics on this blog over the past few years? Turns out we were right and you were dupes. So much for your superior scientific aptitude.
The motivation behind Silent Spring, the suppression of nuclear power, the global-warming scam, and other outbreaks of environmentalist lunacy is the worship of centralized power and authority. The author, Rachel Carson, didn’t set out to kill sixty million people – she was a fanatical believer in the newly formed religion of radical environmentalism, whose body count comes from callousness, rather than blood thirst. The core belief of the environmental religion is the fundamental uncleanliness of human beings. All forms of human activity are bad for the environment… most especially including the activity of large private corporations. Deaths in faraway Africa barely registered on the radar screen of the growing Green movement, especially when measured against the exhilarating triumph of getting a sinful pesticide banned, at substantial cost to an evil corporation.
Those who were initiated into the higher mysteries of environmentalism saw the reduction of the human population as a benefit, although they’re generally more circumspect about saying so in public these days. As quoted by Walter Williams, the founder of the Malthusian Club of Rome, Alexander King, wrote in 1990: “My own doubts came when DDT was introduced. In Guayana, within two years, it had almost eliminated malaria. So my chief quarrel with DDT, in hindsight, is that it has greatly added to the population problem.” Another charming quote comes from Dr. Charles Wurster, a leading opponent of DDT, who said of malaria deaths: “People are the cause of all the problems. We have too many of them. We need to get rid of some of them, and this is as good a way as any.” “
Its all about control and the “humans are evil” idea…
That the World Will Be Destoyed Due To Man’s Wickedness is a theme repeated over and over and over and over in history. Seems to be an instinct, probably a healthy one. But powermongers know that FEAR makes people very easy to manipulate. FEAR is even more powerful emotion than greed, or possibly love.
When we look at the next World Will Be Destoyed Due To Man’s Wickedness ploys, we should know that the data is 0 out of 1,000,000. Pretty low odds.
I have been an environmentalist for about 35 years, my log-furniture business is something that grew out of an idea about salvaging and utilizing waste that is caused by logging practices that are harmful. The AGW coverage has been a distraction from other more pressing issues, the impervious surface and urbanization trend being the most daunting and the most harmful. There are dead zones forming all over the world and these are a very serious problem that has been over-shadowed by the AGW issue. The Malthusians are to Environmentalism what the KKK is to Conservatism. The truth is that the carbon footprint of a US citizen is equal to that of 100 Ethiopians and if it were not for policies in the developed countries causing a vast migration and the resulting urbanization of humanity — there is no population issue. But there is a demographic dividend issue because labor oversupply is causing natural resources to be devalued due to extremely low labor costs. Stereotyping and generalizing have been allowed to infect our national discourse. On this site I avoid the occasional post on environmental issues; but I am a staunch supporter of biochar and all that its implementation implies. And perhaps when the time and place are right I will explain my views in detail, but, for now, I just thought it might be a good time to say that things are not as simple as this thread suggests.
Sammy, less than an hour and rl has at least an answer to the question: What’s next? He said/claims: “The AGW coverage has been a distraction from other more pressing issues, the impervious surface and urbanization trend being the most daunting and the most harmful. There are dead zones forming all over the world and these are a very serious problem that has been over-shadowed by the AGW issue. ” His solution is to reduce the number of parasitic people???
And rl, I did note this: “ utilizing waste that is caused by logging practices that are harmful.” but the follow on comment was even better. Man is EEVVIILLLLL! Mother Gaia will protects us from EEVVIILLLLL mankind. Don’t you feel at all guilty about taking the food away from the many, many life forms that would have lived on the leavings from logging?
If you didn’t notice, we just had a dialog on the foolishness caused by man’s self hatred, and up you pop with your examples.
B – Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming
Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter periods.
C – Do you agree that from January 2002 to the present there has been statistically significant global cooling?
No. This period is even shorter than 1995-2009. The trend this time is negative (-0.12C per decade), but this trend is not statistically significant.
CoRev, My point was intended to explain the stupidity of stereotyping and generalizing. When I first took an interest in environmentalism there were rivers catching on fire, and rain that fell as poison, and air that was unfit to breath. But your conversation above was ignoring the fact that environmentalists have done far more good than harm. Now you have accused me of bringing up the next thing when in fact I have been bringing up the urbanization issue for many, many years. The conversations on this site are too often sophomoric and shallow and I was simply trying to encourage a little maturity. I am beginning to realize that the regulars here deserve each-other. I am sorry if I interfered with your gossip session.
Finally, if instead of cherrypicking 2002, we pick 2000: we get: For GISS data, the trend from 2000 to the present is +0.0115 +/- 0.018 deg.C/yr.For RSS data, the trend from 2000 to the present is +0.0017 +/- 0.030 deg.C/yr.For UAH data, the trend from 2000 to the present is +0.0052 +/- 0.043 deg.C/yr.
Cantab, I think it is widely accepted that the KKK represents the boundary for the extreme right edge of Conservatism. Perhaps I am mistaken. Just replace the KKK with Nazis or whatever it takes to make you happy. I think the KKK reference made my point because I am not fond of being lumped in with Malthusians either but that may be difficult for some to understand. It seems my entire premise was not made clear enough in the first place. Maybe stereotyping and generalizing plays a more important role than I thought. Perhaps blogging is just a forum that keeps narrow thinkers occupied and out of the way?
I am sorry if I interfered with your gossip session.
It’s not that. CoRev, myself, and a few other skeptics have had a long running debate on this blog re. AGW for many years, and to which you are new to. AGW is being rapidly revealed as a giant hoax (“the debate is over”) and we are speculating as to why so many smart people fell so hard for it.
The KKK is a radical fringe group and its one that conservatives have opposed, especially in the south. The assendency of Lincoln’s party in the south has coincided with the decline in the influence of the KKK. Malthus predicted that population growth exceeding food supply would lead to mass starvation. I don’t see how this makes him an environmentalist.
I don’t like this everything bad is the fault of people that want government to leave us alone. I would rather put the KKK on the bad side of community organization. So they are debited against all those people that want to do things, and change society to control us.
rl said: “ I think it is widely accepted that the KKK represents the boundary for the extreme right edge of Conservatism.” That is true only in elitist/Dem/progressive/liberal teachings. Why? Because they do not want to admit that the KKK was a child of the Dems after the Civil War.
Cantab, You have a gift for being difficult. I did not say that Malthus was an environmentalist. Buff suggested above that:
“Those who were initiated into the higher mysteries of environmentalism saw the reduction of the human population as a benefit, although they’re generally more circumspect about saying so in public these days. As quoted by Walter Williams, the founder of the Malthusian Club of Rome, Alexander King, wrote in 1990: “My own doubts came when DDT was introduced. In Guayana, within two years, it had almost eliminated malaria. So my chief quarrel with DDT, in hindsight, is that it has greatly added to the population problem.” Another charming quote comes from Dr. Charles Wurster, a leading opponent of DDT, who said of malaria deaths: “People are the cause of all the problems. We have too many of them. We need to get rid of some of them, and this is as good a way as any.” “
“Its all about control and the “humans are evil” idea…”
As if, all environmentalists are Malthusians, and, I was trying to explain that Malthusians are a fringe element within Environmentalism. And I am having difficulty believing that I am having to write this! Maybe I am dreaming that I live in Philistine a long, long, time ago. I can’t explain how computers are in ancient Philistine though, so don’t ask!
I guess using 2000 is not cherry picking, while using 2002 is. Um, well ok…..
UAH = +.0052 deg C/yr.? RSS = +.0017 deg C/yr.? That is microscopic! Crisis where? Not to mention that the margins of error exceed the actual temperature changes several fold (+/-.043 and +/-.030)
I wouldn’t mention the GISS data if I were you. It would only hurt your credibility, something that the Warmists are already in short supply of.
Four eyes, please read more closely what I said: “Thus, putting a stake in the heart of the “unprecedented” warming argument.” I even emphasized “unprecedented.” Most skeptics do not deny that we are living on a marginally warming world. What we have questioned over and over is the catastrophic predictions associated with that warming. We have also questioned that the warming is more dangerous than … waiting for it? …Cooling! Neither are unprecedented.
rl, understand this. We can see when we are talking to or talked down to by an elitist. That’s you. Your assumption of superiority that the environmental movement was responsible for correcting those conditions is absurd. They had a hand in improving them, but so did the average citizen who realized the had over stepped and damaged their local environment. Y’ano local common sense?
On the other hand the environmental/green/mankind hating/saving the planet from parasitic mankind movement has more deaths attributed to it than any genocidal dictator. But, have you ever heard a supporter take credit for that?
The KKK wants to “conserve” racial purity and superiorty. And yes I was talking down to you and your childish little friends, but not as an elitist, but as an adult who is tired of the nonsense that has become our national debate. You saying for example that environmentalists were little more effectual than the average citizen is just more of your ignorance of what actually happened. We went out and acted, we cleaned up the mess, we petioned and protested while the average citizen was still throwing garbage out his car windows. You and your ass talking pals are nothing but presumption and bias and I am wasting my time here.
I’m afraid that Phil Jones oversimplified and didn’t help his case. If he had followed the Box-Jenkins procedure he would have found that an AR(2) model with a deterministic time trend describes the the post-1995 thru 2009 period quite well. And it does so in a fairly parsimonious way. All coefficients, including the time trend are statistically significant at all conventional levels. One of the attached figures shows the residual autocorrelations from the model…all in all pretty acceptable for a simple model. The other shows that the residuals are all normally distributed. I also tested for ARCH errors…there weren’t any. So there’s actually better evidence for a warming trend than Jones seems to have realized. The data is from GISS.
This is a strawman argument. No one doubts that there have been periods in earth’s history when temperatures were warmer. No one doubts that there have been periods in earth’s history when CO2 concentrations were higher. Of course, earth wasn’t always inhabitable either. The earth’s temperature may or may not have been warmer that today; but it’s not terribly relevant to the global warming argument. The argument isn’t just that the earth is kinda warm, it’s that this warming is due to increasing CO2 levels, which whatever may be the case with medieval temperatures, those temps were surely not due to high CO2 levels. This means that if CO2 is responsible for warmer temperatures, then we can be quite sure that sooner or later temperatures will bust through any plausible MWP temperatures.
And if temperatures due increase, then the economic consequences for most people in the world is not too good. There’s overwhelming evidence that higher temperatures are associated with lower income levels for developing countries. There’s overwhelming evidence that high night time temperatures hurt rice crops. There’s overwhelming evidence that temps above 90 F are bad news for corn and soybean crops. If you and the AGW skeptics are right about the relationship between global warming and CO2, then we might be okay. But if you’re wrong, then millions of people live shorter, poorer, nastier and more brutish lives than they do already.
Here’s a sample of papers that have looked at the relationship between temperature and economic growth. The issue here is not whether global warming is true, but rather the economic relationship between temperature and income, temperature and growth, temperature and crop yields, etc. These papers strongly refute your man-on-the-street claim that warmer temps ought to be good for economic growth. Sorry, but you’re just wrong.
rl, sorry you feel that way. But, if you are not able to communicate rationally, then by all means go away.
What’s make you think that others did not partake of similar efforts? Regardless, the effort that made the difference was pressure from Govt, initiated by local citizens. Some of which I am sure were to the core environmentalists.
So take all the credit you wish, but stop thinking it was only one group that caused the change.
2slugs, you’re at it again. first you rephrase what I said then begin an argument on your rephrased comment. Argue with yourself!
You also claim I am arguing a strawman then when arguing with yourself say this: “This means that if CO2 is responsible for warmer temperatures …” Uh, huh!
The rest of your comment is just more strawman argumentation. I looked through the abstracts of your links, how weak! All correlation, but no causation. And, we’ve discussed your final report several times now. I agree with it. It proves there are optimum temps/conditions for all living things.
2slugs, you’re at it again. You rephrased what I said then begin an argument on your rephrased comment. Do you win when argue with yourself?
You also claim I am arguing a strawman then while arguing with yourself say this: “This means that if CO2 is responsible for warmer temperatures …” Uh, huh! Quantify that ole effect.
The rest of your comment is just more strawman argumentation. I looked through the abstracts of your links, how weak! All correlation, but no causation. And, we’ve discussed your final report several times now. I agree with it. It proves there are optimum temps/conditions for all living things.
2slugs, I do wish you would take this over the Jeff Id’s house. They offered you a chance write an article. This one might be pretty easy to prove as a better/best approach.
Out of curiosity, why did you use GISS data? Jones CRU data is also publicly available.
Let’s leave manmade global warming aside, as interesting as the establishment of statistical significance of results and hypothesis testing may be to all, and discuss the evolution of the US into an unnecessary decade long tragedy in Southeast Asia.
Read this article about how the US bought in to Diem in 1954.
then millions of people live shorter, poorer, nastier and more brutish lives than they do already
Don’t let them “Play on your fears!!” to quote Al Gore. Google “Roman Warm Period” or “Medieval Warm Period” and you’ll find that mankind flourished at warmer temps. Then google “Little Ice Age.”
A little warming would mean longer growing seasons, and more arable land. Moreover the rise is gradual, (see four eyes comment) offering plenty of time for crops to adapt.
How did I misrepresent what you said? Weren’t you arguing that since the earth may have been warmer during the MWP that this somehow demolishes global warming arguments? If that’s not what you meant, then you really ought to clarify because that’s what it sounded like to me. And I don’t think I’m alone in that.
Uh, huh! Quantify that ole effect.
I was making a conditional argument. If you’re right that CO2 does not contribute to global warming, then we may be alright. But if you’re wrong, what’s plan B? You don’t have one. Your response so far has always been to try and pretend that global warming is a good thing, so if it happens, then all the better.
I looked through the abstracts of your links, how weak! All correlation, but no causation.
Translation: I don’t understand it, so I’ll use the old sophomore line about correlation not being causation. The fact is that models show statistically significant relationships that cannot be plausibly attributed to chance. And they are free of omitted variable bias. And they perform well out of sample. Bascially they crush the argument that warm temperatures are good for economic growth. They all pretty much show that warm temperatures are of no particular consequence for the North America and the developed world; but they are bad news for developing countries. If you have an NBER subscription you might want to look at the paper on exports. It’s fairly short and clear cut. Warm temperatues hurt exports for developing countries.
I had email correspondence with Geoff. At first he thought that he had a dataset, but then concluded that it wasn’t a good fit because of some missing observations. Part of the problem was that there is a limit to the amount of information contained in a univariate model and he wanted to tease out more information than he had variables.
BTW, using an AR(1) model as Jeff Id claims is common in the field would give you a model that looks like this:
The parameters are all significant, but it’s a crappy model because the autocorrelations are pretty bad, as you can see with the attached correlogram. It would get an “F” in any time series class.
As to why I used GISS data….because the link was handiest. And because four eyes referenced the GISS data set.
Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli turned up the heat on global warming yesterday. On behalf of the state, Cuccinelli filed a petition asking the federal Environmental Protection Agency to reconsider its December finding that global warming poses a threat to people. Cuccinelli also filed a petition with the federal appeals court in Washington seeking a court review of the EPA finding.”
First, we don’t really know with any confidence that there even was a medieval warming period. Maybe there was, maybe there wasn’t. And we do know from monastery records that crop failures and famines started in the early 14th century, which is about 50 years earlier than the supposed end of the MWP. The point is that you’re hanging your argument on a very thin thread.
You also don’t have a clue about the more sophisticated economic arguments. Longer growing seasons are fine, but temperatures above 90F reduce crop yields for corn and soybeans. And the reduction in yield is nonlinear after 90F. And higher temperatues hurt export markets for developing countries. Higher temperatues are associated with less arable land, not more (see the paper on how climate affects crop geography.
First, we don’t really know with any confidence that there even was a medieval warming period. Maybe there was, maybe there wasn’t. And we do know from monastery records that crop failures and famines started in the early 14th century, which is about 50 years earlier than the supposed end of the MWP. The point is that you’re hanging your argument on a very thin thread.
You also don’t have a clue about the more sophisticated economic arguments. Longer growing seasons are fine, but temperatures above 90F reduce crop yields for corn and soybeans. And the reduction in yield is nonlinear after 90F. And higher temperatues hurt export markets for developing countries. Higher temperatues are associated with less arable land, not more (see the paper on how climate affects crop geography.
As to crops adapting. Keep in mind that there is very little genetic variation in modern crops, so this constrains the ability of hypbridists to develop more temperature resistant crops. But more importantly, it’s very expensive. Adaptation, even when possible, is seldom cheap. So when you whine about the costs of cap and trade, be sure to keep in mind the costs of not getting on top of global warming.
You know why slugs chose the GISS. It shows the most dramatic warming, way out of whack from the satellite data.
What other people might not know is that the GISS is the most suspect of all the data sets. Unexplained “corrections” to the temperature readings, questionable sighting of temperature gauges at Urban Heat Islands, and now cherry-picking which sites to use. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/22/american-thinker-on-cru-giss-and-climategate/
Why slugs? Why? What dog do you have in the fight? Did you speculate in carbon credits and now you are trying to unwind your position?
“Looks like there’s a stampede to exit the United States Climate Action Partnership. Copier king Xerox and insurance broker Marsh apparently are no longer in the business-green alliance supporting cap-and-trade legislation, or so says Tom Borelli, director of the National Center for Public Policy Research’s Free Enterprise Project. On Tuesday, energy giants BP and ConocoPhillips along with heavy equipment maker Caterpillar , said they were leaving the group.”
2slugs, sigh!!!! saying this: “How did I misrepresent what you said? Weren’t you arguing that since the earth may have been warmer during the MWP that this somehow demolishes global warming arguments?” Just demonstrates my point.
Are you winning or losing those singular arguments?
Sammy, you scooped me on the Texas court case. It looks like there is some coordination on the sttate levle. Bot are using the courts and administrative procedures to attack the EPA ruling. IIRC, the administrative appeal processes must be exhausted before a case qualifies for appeal.
Maybe some of the lawyers visiting here can clarify.
I expect additonal cases from different areas of the power generation and carbon fuel business sectors.
Here are two maps. One is human population density, one is average temperature. What it shows is where it is cold (avg temp below 41 F) almost no one lives. We have no problems at warm temps.
If you have an NBER subscription you might want to look at the paper on exports. It’s fairly short and clear cut. Warm temperatues hurt exports for developing countries.
Average temperatures have varied by only minute, almost imperceptible, amounts over the past 20 years. And that must be some world champion regression to capture that and to control for all the other multiple, much more siginificant, variables that influence exports (currency, economic growth, etc etc).
It does prove one thing: YOU WILL BELIEVE ANYTHING.
If you have an NBER subscription you might want to look at the paper on exports. It’s fairly short and clear cut. Warm temperatues hurt exports for developing countries.
Average temperatures have varied by only minute, almost imperceptible, amounts over the past 20 years. And that must be some world champion regression to capture that, and also to control for all the other multiple, much more siginificant, variables that influence exports (currency, economic growth, etc etc).
It does prove one thing: YOU WILL BELIEVE ANYTHING.
If you have an NBER subscription you might want to look at the paper on exports. It’s fairly short and clear cut. Warm temperatues hurt exports for developing countries.
LOL. Average temperatures have varied by only minute, almost imperceptible, amounts over the past 20 years. And that must be some world champion regression to capture that, and also to control for all the other multiple, much more siginificant, variables that influence exports (currency, economic growth, etc etc).
It does prove one thing: YOU WILL BELIEVE ANYTHING.
Just how badly have the wheels come off the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) movement’s wagon? Well, the big news this week was the Dr Phil Jones, the center of the Climategate email scandals, and one of the lead reviewers on the latest IPCC reports has admitted that there has been not statisitcally significant warming since 1995. Additionally, he admitted that since 2002 there has been cooling. He also admitted the warming rate from 1970 was similar in rates seen in two other prior periods. Periods that were less influenced by man made green house gases. Finally, Jones admitted that the medieval warm period may have occurred and was possibly warmer than today’s warm period. Thus, putting a stake in the heart of the “unprecedented” warming argument.
The last IPCC report has finally been reviewed by skeptical eyes and has been found to be rife with errors or scientifically unsubstantiated findings.
The final effect of the IPCC report review failures, in my opinion, will substantially impact on the EPA findings when they are fought in courts. (Yes, plural) Not because of the science, but because the EPA failed to follow its own administrative standards and procedures.
All of these things happened the same week the Prez announced the creation of the new Climate Change Department during a blizzard that set a new total annual snow record for DC. Timing, timing timing!
CoRev,
I was wondering when you would get another chance to post on the ‘settled science” (Hahahaha!). AGW has been discredited and once again my point that the entire scam has been about gaining control and power over the masses by the enviromental wacko’s. The guys spewing this stuff never really beleived it – their actions showed the lie very clearly. Now the actual science, not the cooked-books science, is destroying the entire charade. Where’s Gore?
I’ll see if I can post a picture of my kids building a 6 foot high snowman. In Texas!
Islam will change
Buff, before the “believers” jump on YA, remember weather is not climate! Ha, ha, ha, ha.
Mother nature has a sense of humor. 😀
I know weather is not climate. But this was the largest snowstorm in recorded history down here (130 years). The kids had a great time and all my neighbors envied me becuase i was the only one with a snow shovel (and new how to use it). On the downside I got to shovel the mother in laws driveway and walks…
What was interesting was all the small (1-2 foot high) snowmen. My wife (Texas native) said they were that small becuase that was the ‘normal’ size for a snowman in Texas. Where I gew up (Ohio) normal was in the 5-6 ft range.
All melted off now but it was fun while it lasted.
AGW getting discredited is just icing on the cake. I wonder what the wacko’s will morph into in their never ending quest to tell us how to live, where to live, what to eat and otherwise crush individual freedom, for the “good of the children.”
Any bets on if any of those high speed bullet trains actually get built? I bet the environmentalist types will fight them tooth and nail…good work for lawyers but definitely not shovel ready. I doubt we will ever see them…
Islam will change
Phil Jones: …..there has been not statistically significant warming since 1995. Additionally, he admitted that since 2002 there has been cooling.
Q: If the problem is non-existant, why do we have libs stell pushing CO2 regulation?
A: buffpilot: the entire scam has been about gaining control and power over the masses.
How fortuitous is it that they renamed their cause “Climate Change” eh? That will work.
BTW, where are all you guys that so gratuitously insulted the few skeptics on this blog over the past few years? Turns out we were right and you were dupes. So much for your superior science aptitude.
Phil Jones: …..there has been not statistically significant warming since 1995. Additionally, he admitted that since 2002 there has been cooling.
Q: If the problem is non-existant, why do we have libs still pushing CO2 regulation?
A: buffpilot: the entire scam has been about gaining control and power over the masses.
How fortuitous is it that they renamed their cause “Climate Change” eh? That will work.
BTW, where are all you guys that so gratuitously insulted the few skeptics on this blog over the past few years? Turns out we were right and you were dupes. So much for your superior scientific aptitude.
Another great article in the Environment movement is evil and about control from Hot Air:
http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2010/02/16/the-green-death/
Read the whole thing ; But a small taste:
“
The motivation behind Silent Spring, the suppression of nuclear power, the global-warming scam, and other outbreaks of environmentalist lunacy is the worship of centralized power and authority. The author, Rachel Carson, didn’t set out to kill sixty million people – she was a fanatical believer in the newly formed religion of radical environmentalism, whose body count comes from callousness, rather than blood thirst. The core belief of the environmental religion is the fundamental uncleanliness of human beings. All forms of human activity are bad for the environment… most especially including the activity of large private corporations. Deaths in faraway Africa barely registered on the radar screen of the growing Green movement, especially when measured against the exhilarating triumph of getting a sinful pesticide banned, at substantial cost to an evil corporation.
Those who were initiated into the higher mysteries of environmentalism saw the reduction of the human population as a benefit, although they’re generally more circumspect about saying so in public these days. As quoted by Walter Williams, the founder of the Malthusian Club of Rome, Alexander King, wrote in 1990: “My own doubts came when DDT was introduced. In Guayana, within two years, it had almost eliminated malaria. So my chief quarrel with DDT, in hindsight, is that it has greatly added to the population problem.” Another charming quote comes from Dr. Charles Wurster, a leading opponent of DDT, who said of malaria deaths: “People are the cause of all the problems. We have too many of them. We need to get rid of some of them, and this is as good a way as any.” “
Its all about control and the “humans are evil” idea…
Islam will change
buff,
the “humans are evil” idea…
That the World Will Be Destoyed Due To Man’s Wickedness is a theme repeated over and over and over and over in history. Seems to be an instinct, probably a healthy one. But powermongers know that FEAR makes people very easy to manipulate. FEAR is even more powerful emotion than greed, or possibly love.
When we look at the next World Will Be Destoyed Due To Man’s Wickedness ploys, we should know that the data is 0 out of 1,000,000. Pretty low odds.
I have been an environmentalist for about 35 years, my log-furniture business is something that grew out of an idea about salvaging and utilizing waste that is caused by logging practices that are harmful.
The AGW coverage has been a distraction from other more pressing issues, the impervious surface and urbanization trend being the most daunting and the most harmful. There are dead zones forming all over the world and these are a very serious problem that has been over-shadowed by the AGW issue.
The Malthusians are to Environmentalism what the KKK is to Conservatism. The truth is that the carbon footprint of a US citizen is equal to that of 100 Ethiopians and if it were not for policies in the developed countries causing a vast migration and the resulting urbanization of humanity — there is no population issue. But there is a demographic dividend issue because labor oversupply is causing natural resources to be devalued due to extremely low labor costs.
Stereotyping and generalizing have been allowed to infect our national discourse. On this site I avoid the occasional post on environmental issues; but I am a staunch supporter of biochar and all that its implementation implies. And perhaps when the time and place are right I will explain my views in detail, but, for now, I just thought it might be a good time to say that things are not as simple as this thread suggests.
rl love,
The Malthusians are to Environmentalism what the KKK is to Conservatism.
Unrelated?
Sammy, less than an hour and rl has at least an answer to the question: What’s next? He said/claims: “The AGW coverage has been a distraction from other more pressing issues, the impervious surface and urbanization trend being the most daunting and the most harmful. There are dead zones forming all over the world and these are a very serious problem that has been over-shadowed by the AGW issue. ” His solution is to reduce the number of parasitic people???
And rl, I did note this: “ utilizing waste that is caused by logging practices that are harmful. ” but the follow on comment was even better. Man is EEVVIILLLLL! Mother Gaia will protects us from EEVVIILLLLL mankind. Don’t you feel at all guilty about taking the food away from the many, many life forms that would have lived on the leavings from logging?
If you didn’t notice, we just had a dialog on the foolishness caused by man’s self hatred, and up you pop with your examples.
Guys please please please actually read the Phil Jones interview at the BBC.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8511670.stm
Actually let me quote some of the interview:
B – Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming
Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter periods.
C – Do you agree that from January 2002 to the present there has been statistically significant global cooling?
No. This period is even shorter than 1995-2009. The trend this time is negative (-0.12C per decade), but this trend is not statistically significant.
CoRev,
My point was intended to explain the stupidity of stereotyping and generalizing. When I first took an interest in environmentalism there were rivers catching on fire, and rain that fell as poison, and air that was unfit to breath. But your conversation above was ignoring the fact that environmentalists have done far more good than harm.
Now you have accused me of bringing up the next thing when in fact I have been bringing up the urbanization issue for many, many years. The conversations on this site are too often sophomoric and shallow and I was simply trying to encourage a little maturity. I am beginning to realize that the regulars here deserve each-other. I am sorry if I interfered with your gossip session.
Finally, if instead of cherrypicking 2002, we pick 2000: we get:
For GISS data, the trend from 2000 to the present is +0.0115 +/- 0.018 deg.C/yr.For RSS data, the trend from 2000 to the present is +0.0017 +/- 0.030 deg.C/yr.For UAH data, the trend from 2000 to the present is +0.0052 +/- 0.043 deg.C/yr.
Notice all those plus signs.
Cantab,
I think it is widely accepted that the KKK represents the boundary for the extreme right edge of Conservatism. Perhaps I am mistaken. Just replace the KKK with Nazis or whatever it takes to make you happy. I think the KKK reference made my point because I am not fond of being lumped in with Malthusians either but that may be difficult for some to understand. It seems my entire premise was not made clear enough in the first place. Maybe stereotyping and generalizing plays a more important role than I thought. Perhaps blogging is just a forum that keeps narrow thinkers occupied and out of the way?
rl love,
I am sorry if I interfered with your gossip session.
It’s not that. CoRev, myself, and a few other skeptics have had a long running debate on this blog re. AGW for many years, and to which you are new to. AGW is being rapidly revealed as a giant hoax (“the debate is over”) and we are speculating as to why so many smart people fell so hard for it.
The KKK is a radical fringe group and its one that conservatives have opposed, especially in the south. The assendency of Lincoln’s party in the south has coincided with the decline in the influence of the KKK. Malthus predicted that population growth exceeding food supply would lead to mass starvation. I don’t see how this makes him an environmentalist.
I don’t like this everything bad is the fault of people that want government to leave us alone. I would rather put the KKK on the bad side of community organization. So they are debited against all those people that want to do things, and change society to control us.
rl said: “ I think it is widely accepted that the KKK represents the boundary for the extreme right edge of Conservatism.” That is true only in elitist/Dem/progressive/liberal teachings. Why? Because they do not want to admit that the KKK was a child of the Dems after the Civil War.
Cantab,
You have a gift for being difficult. I did not say that Malthus was an environmentalist. Buff suggested above that:
“Those who were initiated into the higher mysteries of environmentalism saw the reduction of the human population as a benefit, although they’re generally more circumspect about saying so in public these days. As quoted by Walter Williams, the founder of the Malthusian Club of Rome, Alexander King, wrote in 1990: “My own doubts came when DDT was introduced. In Guayana, within two years, it had almost eliminated malaria. So my chief quarrel with DDT, in hindsight, is that it has greatly added to the population problem.” Another charming quote comes from Dr. Charles Wurster, a leading opponent of DDT, who said of malaria deaths: “People are the cause of all the problems. We have too many of them. We need to get rid of some of them, and this is as good a way as any.” “
“Its all about control and the “humans are evil” idea…”
As if, all environmentalists are Malthusians, and, I was trying to explain that Malthusians are a fringe element within Environmentalism. And I am having difficulty believing that I am having to write this! Maybe I am dreaming that I live in Philistine a long, long, time ago. I can’t explain how computers are in ancient Philistine though, so don’t ask!
four eyes,
I guess using 2000 is not cherry picking, while using 2002 is. Um, well ok…..
UAH = +.0052 deg C/yr.? RSS = +.0017 deg C/yr.? That is microscopic! Crisis where? Not to mention that the margins of error exceed the actual temperature changes several fold (+/-.043 and +/-.030)
I wouldn’t mention the GISS data if I were you. It would only hurt your credibility, something that the Warmists are already in short supply of.
Four eyes, please read more closely what I said: “Thus, putting a stake in the heart of the “unprecedented” warming argument.” I even emphasized “unprecedented.” Most skeptics do not deny that we are living on a marginally warming world. What we have questioned over and over is the catastrophic predictions associated with that warming. We have also questioned that the warming is more dangerous than … waiting for it? …Cooling! Neither are unprecedented.
rl, understand this. We can see when we are talking to or talked down to by an elitist. That’s you. Your assumption of superiority that the environmental movement was responsible for correcting those conditions is absurd. They had a hand in improving them, but so did the average citizen who realized the had over stepped and damaged their local environment. Y’ano local common sense?
On the other hand the environmental/green/mankind hating/saving the planet from parasitic mankind movement has more deaths attributed to it than any genocidal dictator. But, have you ever heard a supporter take credit for that?
The KKK wants to “conserve” racial purity and superiorty. And yes I was talking down to you and your childish little friends, but not as an elitist, but as an adult who is tired of the nonsense that has become our national debate. You saying for example that environmentalists were little more effectual than the average citizen is just more of your ignorance of what actually happened. We went out and acted, we cleaned up the mess, we petioned and protested while the average citizen was still throwing garbage out his car windows. You and your ass talking pals are nothing but presumption and bias and I am wasting my time here.
four eyes,
I’m afraid that Phil Jones oversimplified and didn’t help his case. If he had followed the Box-Jenkins procedure he would have found that an AR(2) model with a deterministic time trend describes the the post-1995 thru 2009 period quite well. And it does so in a fairly parsimonious way. All coefficients, including the time trend are statistically significant at all conventional levels. One of the attached figures shows the residual autocorrelations from the model…all in all pretty acceptable for a simple model. The other shows that the residuals are all normally distributed. I also tested for ARCH errors…there weren’t any. So there’s actually better evidence for a warming trend than Jones seems to have realized. The data is from GISS.
coefficient std. error t-ratio p-value
———————————————————
const 36.2478 4.82951 7.505 6.12e-014 ***
phi_1 0.418283 0.0746796 5.601 2.13e-08 ***
phi_2 0.254546 0.0747578 3.405 0.0007 ***
time 0.135043 0.0491537 2.747 0.0060 ***
CoRev,
This is a strawman argument. No one doubts that there have been periods in earth’s history when temperatures were warmer. No one doubts that there have been periods in earth’s history when CO2 concentrations were higher. Of course, earth wasn’t always inhabitable either. The earth’s temperature may or may not have been warmer that today; but it’s not terribly relevant to the global warming argument. The argument isn’t just that the earth is kinda warm, it’s that this warming is due to increasing CO2 levels, which whatever may be the case with medieval temperatures, those temps were surely not due to high CO2 levels. This means that if CO2 is responsible for warmer temperatures, then we can be quite sure that sooner or later temperatures will bust through any plausible MWP temperatures.
And if temperatures due increase, then the economic consequences for most people in the world is not too good. There’s overwhelming evidence that higher temperatures are associated with lower income levels for developing countries. There’s overwhelming evidence that high night time temperatures hurt rice crops. There’s overwhelming evidence that temps above 90 F are bad news for corn and soybean crops. If you and the AGW skeptics are right about the relationship between global warming and CO2, then we might be okay. But if you’re wrong, then millions of people live shorter, poorer, nastier and more brutish lives than they do already.
Here’s a sample of papers that have looked at the relationship between temperature and economic growth. The issue here is not whether global warming is true, but rather the economic relationship between temperature and income, temperature and growth, temperature and crop yields, etc. These papers strongly refute your man-on-the-street claim that warmer temps ought to be good for economic growth. Sorry, but you’re just wrong.
http://www.nber.org/papers/w9490
http://www.nber.org/papers/w14132
http://www.nber.org/papers/w14680
http://www.nber.org/papers/w15692
http://www.nber.org/papers/w15711
http://www.nber.org/papers/w13799
rl, sorry you feel that way. But, if you are not able to communicate rationally, then by all means go away.
What’s make you think that others did not partake of similar efforts? Regardless, the effort that made the difference was pressure from Govt, initiated by local citizens. Some of which I am sure were to the core environmentalists.
So take all the credit you wish, but stop thinking it was only one group that caused the change.
rl love.
I see the KKK more as community organizers (but in a bad way).
This is funny:
http://drboli.wordpress.com/2009/12/15/the-duck/
2slugs, you’re at it again. first you rephrase what I said then begin an argument on your rephrased comment. Argue with yourself!
You also claim I am arguing a strawman then when arguing with yourself say this: “This means that if CO2 is responsible for warmer temperatures …” Uh, huh!
The rest of your comment is just more strawman argumentation. I looked through the abstracts of your links, how weak! All correlation, but no causation. And, we’ve discussed your final report several times now. I agree with it. It proves there are optimum temps/conditions for all living things.
2slugs, you’re at it again. You rephrased what I said then begin an argument on your rephrased comment. Do you win when argue with yourself?
You also claim I am arguing a strawman then while arguing with yourself say this: “This means that if CO2 is responsible for warmer temperatures …” Uh, huh! Quantify that ole effect.
The rest of your comment is just more strawman argumentation. I looked through the abstracts of your links, how weak! All correlation, but no causation. And, we’ve discussed your final report several times now. I agree with it. It proves there are optimum temps/conditions for all living things.
2slugs, I do wish you would take this over the Jeff Id’s house. They offered you a chance write an article. This one might be pretty easy to prove as a better/best approach.
Out of curiosity, why did you use GISS data? Jones CRU data is also publicly available.
Let’s leave manmade global warming aside, as interesting as the establishment of statistical significance of results and hypothesis testing may be to all, and discuss the evolution of the US into an unnecessary decade long tragedy in Southeast Asia.
Read this article about how the US bought in to Diem in 1954.
http://www.historynet.com/ed-lansdales-black-warfare-in-1950s-vietnam.htm
Even better how many here remember that it was Ho who prevented the Geneva mandated unification elections scheduled for 1956?
Until today I thought that Ho prevented the unification elections because the Diems were supposed to have won.
Wrong, it was Diem who ran his own corrupt “election”, with the help of the US and “psywar”, and refused a north south national election.
Ho would have won over the corrupt papists favored by a tiny minority and opposed by BUddhists, anamists and nationalists.
But the US insisted on preventing the will of the people.
As likely to be a long running affair as winning the Islamic hearts and minds of Helmand.
What is true when the psywar is waged on US?
2slugbaits,
then millions of people live shorter, poorer, nastier and more brutish lives than they do already
Don’t let them “Play on your fears!!” to quote Al Gore. Google “Roman Warm Period” or “Medieval Warm Period” and you’ll find that mankind flourished at warmer temps. Then google “Little Ice Age.”
A little warming would mean longer growing seasons, and more arable land. Moreover the rise is gradual, (see four eyes comment) offering plenty of time for crops to adapt.
CoRev,
How did I misrepresent what you said? Weren’t you arguing that since the earth may have been warmer during the MWP that this somehow demolishes global warming arguments? If that’s not what you meant, then you really ought to clarify because that’s what it sounded like to me. And I don’t think I’m alone in that.
Uh, huh! Quantify that ole effect.
I was making a conditional argument. If you’re right that CO2 does not contribute to global warming, then we may be alright. But if you’re wrong, what’s plan B? You don’t have one. Your response so far has always been to try and pretend that global warming is a good thing, so if it happens, then all the better.
I looked through the abstracts of your links, how weak! All correlation, but no causation.
Translation: I don’t understand it, so I’ll use the old sophomore line about correlation not being causation. The fact is that models show statistically significant relationships that cannot be plausibly attributed to chance. And they are free of omitted variable bias. And they perform well out of sample. Bascially they crush the argument that warm temperatures are good for economic growth. They all pretty much show that warm temperatures are of no particular consequence for the North America and the developed world; but they are bad news for developing countries. If you have an NBER subscription you might want to look at the paper on exports. It’s fairly short and clear cut. Warm temperatues hurt exports for developing countries.
CoRev,
I had email correspondence with Geoff. At first he thought that he had a dataset, but then concluded that it wasn’t a good fit because of some missing observations. Part of the problem was that there is a limit to the amount of information contained in a univariate model and he wanted to tease out more information than he had variables.
BTW, using an AR(1) model as Jeff Id claims is common in the field would give you a model that looks like this:
coefficient std. error t-ratio p-value
———————————————————
const 47.5988 2.43203 19.57 2.70e-085 ***
phi_1 0.645642 0.0590365 10.94 7.73e-028 ***
The parameters are all significant, but it’s a crappy model because the autocorrelations are pretty bad, as you can see with the attached correlogram. It would get an “F” in any time series class.
As to why I used GISS data….because the link was handiest. And because four eyes referenced the GISS data set.
Sammy, now this is funny!!!
Va. challenges EPA’s stance on global warming
It starts: “
Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli turned up the heat on global warming yesterday.
On behalf of the state, Cuccinelli filed a petition asking the federal Environmental Protection Agency to reconsider its December finding that global warming poses a threat to people.
Cuccinelli also filed a petition with the federal appeals court in Washington seeking a court review of the EPA finding.”
It can be found here:
http://www2.timesdispatch.com/rtd/news/state_regional/article/CUCC17_20100216-222005/324766/
Those ole elections have consequences. The VA AG and Governor were part of that tea bagger movement to get rid of incumbents, especially the libs.
sammy,
First, we don’t really know with any confidence that there even was a medieval warming period. Maybe there was, maybe there wasn’t. And we do know from monastery records that crop failures and famines started in the early 14th century, which is about 50 years earlier than the supposed end of the MWP. The point is that you’re hanging your argument on a very thin thread.
You also don’t have a clue about the more sophisticated economic arguments. Longer growing seasons are fine, but temperatures above 90F reduce crop yields for corn and soybeans. And the reduction in yield is nonlinear after 90F. And higher temperatues hurt export markets for developing countries. Higher temperatues are associated with less arable land, not more (see the paper on how climate affects crop geography.
sammy,
First, we don’t really know with any confidence that there even was a medieval warming period. Maybe there was, maybe there wasn’t. And we do know from monastery records that crop failures and famines started in the early 14th century, which is about 50 years earlier than the supposed end of the MWP. The point is that you’re hanging your argument on a very thin thread.
You also don’t have a clue about the more sophisticated economic arguments. Longer growing seasons are fine, but temperatures above 90F reduce crop yields for corn and soybeans. And the reduction in yield is nonlinear after 90F. And higher temperatues hurt export markets for developing countries. Higher temperatues are associated with less arable land, not more (see the paper on how climate affects crop geography.
As to crops adapting. Keep in mind that there is very little genetic variation in modern crops, so this constrains the ability of hypbridists to develop more temperature resistant crops. But more importantly, it’s very expensive. Adaptation, even when possible, is seldom cheap. So when you whine about the costs of cap and trade, be sure to keep in mind the costs of not getting on top of global warming.
Out of curiosity, why did you use GISS data?
CoRev,
You know why slugs chose the GISS. It shows the most dramatic warming, way out of whack from the satellite data.
What other people might not know is that the GISS is the most suspect of all the data sets. Unexplained “corrections” to the temperature readings, questionable sighting of temperature gauges at Urban Heat Islands, and now cherry-picking which sites to use. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/22/american-thinker-on-cru-giss-and-climategate/
Why slugs? Why? What dog do you have in the fight? Did you speculate in carbon credits and now you are trying to unwind your position?
coRev,
Yesterday is was Texas. “Texas AG sues over EPA’s greenhouse finding.”
http://www.legalnewsline.com/news/225600-texas-ag-sues-over-epas-greenhouse-finding
Today
“Looks like there’s a stampede to exit the United States Climate Action Partnership. Copier king Xerox and insurance broker Marsh apparently are no longer in the business-green alliance supporting cap-and-trade legislation, or so says Tom Borelli, director of the National Center for Public Policy Research’s Free Enterprise Project.
On Tuesday, energy giants BP and ConocoPhillips along with heavy equipment maker Caterpillar , said they were leaving the group.”
http://blogs.investors.com/capitalhill/index.php/home/35-politics/1410-xerox-marsh-also-out-of-climate-alliance
However government owned GM and Chrysler are still in the group ha ha ha ha.
Everyone is slinking to the sidelines, except 2queegbaits, who seems determined to go down with the ship.
2slugs, sigh!!!! saying this: “How did I misrepresent what you said? Weren’t you arguing that since the earth may have been warmer during the MWP that this somehow demolishes global warming arguments?” Just demonstrates my point.
Are you winning or losing those singular arguments?
Sammy, you scooped me on the Texas court case. It looks like there is some coordination on the sttate levle. Bot are using the courts and administrative procedures to attack the EPA ruling. IIRC, the administrative appeal processes must be exhausted before a case qualifies for appeal.
Maybe some of the lawyers visiting here can clarify.
I expect additonal cases from different areas of the power generation and carbon fuel business sectors.
2slugs,
Here are two maps. One is human population density, one is average temperature. What it shows is where it is cold (avg temp below 41 F) almost no one lives. We have no problems at warm temps.
2slugs,
If you have an NBER subscription you might want to look at the paper on exports. It’s fairly short and clear cut. Warm temperatues hurt exports for developing countries.
Average temperatures have varied by only minute, almost imperceptible, amounts over the past 20 years. And that must be some world champion regression to capture that and to control for all the other multiple, much more siginificant, variables that influence exports (currency, economic growth, etc etc).
It does prove one thing: YOU WILL BELIEVE ANYTHING.
2slugs,
If you have an NBER subscription you might want to look at the paper on exports. It’s fairly short and clear cut. Warm temperatues hurt exports for developing countries.
Average temperatures have varied by only minute, almost imperceptible, amounts over the past 20 years. And that must be some world champion regression to capture that, and also to control for all the other multiple, much more siginificant, variables that influence exports (currency, economic growth, etc etc).
It does prove one thing: YOU WILL BELIEVE ANYTHING.
2slugs,
If you have an NBER subscription you might want to look at the paper on exports. It’s fairly short and clear cut. Warm temperatues hurt exports for developing countries.
LOL.
Average temperatures have varied by only minute, almost imperceptible, amounts over the past 20 years. And that must be some world champion regression to capture that, and also to control for all the other multiple, much more siginificant, variables that influence exports (currency, economic growth, etc etc).
It does prove one thing: YOU WILL BELIEVE ANYTHING.