That 3.5% rise in GDP


Divorced one like Bush wants to know how accurate the polling was that came up with a consensous that the GDP rose 3.5% in the third quarter. I did my own poll last night at band practice and 100% of the self employed band members (only one for an employer and that’s the public school system) said they did not see it in their business.

I think this GDP rise, “we’re out of the recession” was just more of the inside the beltway pundit MSM happy talk. How else can you explain a 200 point rise in the Dow?

I took another poll today. It’s of retail. It’s a poll of 1, but I think it’s significant. The results are good. Retail sales were up 5.3% for the 3rd quarter over the same time last year. WOW! I think I’ll buy stock in this company. Here’s how it broke out:
July up 19.4%,
August down 14.2%,
September up 12.2%.
Six out of the last nine months were negative as compared to last year.

Here’s how the money flowed:
Account sales down 11.8%,
American Express up 78.4%,
Cash down 3.2%,
Discover down 39%,
Visa/Master Card up 24.6%.

Here’s the Advanced Retail Sale report from October 14, 2009

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $344.7 billion, a decrease of 1.5 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 5.7 percent (±0.7%) below September 2008. Total sales for the July through September 2009 period were down 6.6 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The July to August 2009 percent change was revised from +2.7 percent (±0.5%) to +2.2 percent (±0.2%).

Retail trade sales were down 1.7 percent (±0.7%) from August 2009 and 6.4 percent (±0.7%) below last year. Gasoline stations sales were down 25.3 percent (±1.3%) from September 2008 and building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers were down 13.0 percent (±2.0%) from last year.

And the Dow came back to reality today. At least for the moment.