CBO: Long Term Budget Outlook

by Bruce Webb

Congressional Budget Office Long Term Budget Outlook

(Social Security is chapter 3)

(Update) Not a lot of meat here. CBO offers two outlooks for Social Security, one which projects a payroll gap of 1.33% (extended baseline) and another 1.54%. (alternative fiscal scenario). The former assumes that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts sunset on schedule and the AMT is not indexed for inflation, the latter assumes the opposite. In any event either is below the Trustees’ current law projection of 2.00%. Meaning the cost of the Northwest Plan would be adjusted down by a third or a quarter respectively.

Oh my gosh! As the percentage of people of retirement age doubles so does the amount of GDP needed to house and feed them! Hmm, what the hell is wrong with that? Retirees not having to shuffle up to the table to beg for scraps? Getting their proportionate share of GDP? The horrors!

And for the privatizers out there, be sure to compensate for the fact that 36% of benefits goes to survivors and disabled workers when calculating your ROI.