Senate Version of the Stimulus Bill
Up to now most of the numbers used in the Pick your Pork series have been drawn from the initial House version of the bill. But now the action has moved to the Senate and it is time to shift our ground in response. So lets develop some links.
CBO Director’s Blog: Macroeconomic Effects of the Senate Stimulus Legislation
CBO estimates that the Senate legislation would raise output by between 1.4 percent and 4.1 percent by the fourth quarter of 2009; by between 1.2 percent and 3.6 percent by the fourth quarter of 2010; and by between 0.4 percent and 1.2 percent by the fourth quarter of 2011. CBO estimates that the legislation would raise employment by 0.9 million to 2.5 million at the end of 2009; 1.3 million to 3.9 million at the end of 2010; and 0.6 million to 1.9 million at the end of 2011.
CBO estimates that if enacted in mid-February, H.R. 1 as amended would increase outlays by $132 billion during the remaining several months of fiscal year 2009, by $242 billion in fiscal year 2010, by $145 billion in 2011, and by a total of $632 billion over the 2009-2019 period. In addition, CBO and the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimate that enacting the proposed Senate amendment to H.R. 1 would reduce revenues by $101 billion in fiscal year 2009, by $219 billion in fiscal year 2010, and by a net amount of $253 billion over the 2009-2019 period. (Approximately $96 billion of the estimated revenue change is attributable to the proposed tax credit for wage earners and $70 billion to the proposed changes in the AMT.)
Combining those effects, CBO estimates that enacting the Senate amendment would increase federal budget deficits by $233 billion over the remaining months of fiscal year 2009, by $461 billion in 2010, by $142 billion in 2011, and by about $884 billion over over the 2009-2019 period.
CBO Cost Estimate
Senate Version of Stimulus Package: Full Text (PDF)
I’ll be be poking around through the Estimate and Bill and get something up in the next day or two.
In the meanwhile: Pick your Pork!
(Update. Though it should be clear enough from the formatting none of these numbers are mine. The text in blockquotes has just been cut and pasted right from the original CBO documents.)