by cactus The End of the Recession: A Prediction Back in March, I noted we were in recession, and that the recession was somewhat different from previous recessions in that it had not been preceded by a nice sized cut in the real money supply. Put another way – an error by the Fed wasn’t […]
rdan (hat tip Stormy) Market Oracle has an opinion on where the trade deficit will be headed: Durable and capital goods The US’s manufacturing sector is concentrated in industries most vulnerable to an economic downturn, durable and capital goods. Durable goods are products that last for more than three years like SUVs, motor/sail boats, etc. […]
How is Social Security holding up given the terrible employment numbers? Well not as bad as I had feared. OAS::Opening balance//Projected year end balance-Intermediate Cost//Y-O-Y Increase//Year end balance-Low Cost//Y-O-Y increase-Low Cost$2.023 trillion // $2.216 trillion //$193 billion// $2.221 trillion// $198 billion DI::Opening balance//Projected year end balance-Intermediate Cost//Y-O-Y Increase//Year end balance-Low Cost//Y-O-Y increase-Low Cost$214.9 billion//$218.7 billion//$3.8 […]
Robert Waldmann I understand that traders are compensated roughly half based on mark to market profits in a given year and half on long term outcomes (the was the AIG AIG-FP deal). This implies that many people made a lot of money being wrong about the housing bubble etc. It also implies that the conditions […]
by Bruce Webb Paul Rosenberg has started an interesting series over at Open Left that in some ways could see my post What is the Nexus? as prologue. The first post in the series is Hegemony On Steroids–Episode 35,879: “The Neocons Couldn’t A Dunnit!” It starts by stating one set of revisionist talking points eagerly […]
rdan (hat tip 2slugbaits) Krugman says here: What I’ve illustrated here is the marginal cost and benefit of government purchases of public goods in and near a liquidity trap. The marginal benefit is presumably a downward-sloping curve. If G is low, so that monetary policy cannot achieve full employment, the marginal cost of an additional […]
In 1979 Peter Sellers starred in a brilliant movie about the ultimate in accidental Presidents. As the movie ends Chance the Gardiner has not actually been elevated to be Leader of the Free World but is well on his way. Because people could read meanings they wanted to hear into what he was saying. I […]
by cactus Kafka and Bills Back in May, we moved out of state. Before we did, we canceled our assorted services, ranging from the newspaper subscription to gas. One of the utilities we canceled was Los Angeles Department of Water and Power. The ex-GF called, and they said they’d do a final reading and send […]
Robert Waldmann While blogging here at Angry Bear, I have been almost as blunt and direct as I am ignorant, but I would like to be much more frank in this post. The question, roughly, is which innovative financial instruments and trading strategies are socially useful. This is important, because people argue against draconian regulation […]
She’s got a broken collarbone, so we’re indulging her for the moment. So after we finished reading the two age-appropriate books (e.g., Paddington at the Zoo), she said, “go back to the one you were reading me earlier.” She fell asleep to Geography and Trade.