Prediction Time

Okay, for what it’s worth, I’ll throw my hat into the ring and make a prediction for the outcome of the presidential election tomorrow. Here it is (from the LA Times EV tracker):

This will yield Kerry 306 EVs, and Bush 232 EVs. As far as the popular vote goes, I’ll pick some numbers out of a hat and predict Kerry 49.8%, Bush 48.7%. I hope that we’ll know if I’m right in 48 hours.

I find the EV map above extraordinarily striking, for a reason wholly unrelated to the cautious optimism about a Kerry victory that it reflects. With the exceptions of Florida and Indiana (and maybe West Virginia), if my prediction is correct then we are essentially back in the US of 1860, politically: it’s the Confederacy vs. the Union. Not being a political scientist, I’m unclear as to why those regional differences have reemerged again so clearly. I would have thought that after 100+ years of dramatic economic and demographic change the US could not be so simply divided along the exact same regional lines as it was during the Civil War.