CBSMarketwatch.com has a couple of interesting stories for China-watchers. The first reports that it seems increasingly certainl that China will not revalue the yuan any time soon. The second surveys some of China’s recent economic statistics. Some highlights:
Third-quarter gross domestic product grew 9.1 percent compared with the July-September period last year, slowing from the previous quarter’s 9.6 percent and the first quarter’s 9.8 percent, as the government took steps to cool the economy. GDP grew 9.5 percent on year in the first nine months of 2004, the National Bureau of Statistics said.
…Other data showed the economy is still booming. China’s fixed-asset investment — which accounts for about half of GDP — rose 27.7 percent in the January-September period, and industrial production rose 17 percent.
Another good sign: the month-on-month rise in China’s consumer price index slowed to 5.2 percent in September from 5.3 percent in both July and August, slightly below China’s key one-year lending rate of 5.31 percent.
…China’s central bank started tightening money supply and credit growth in the second half of last year by raising some banks’ reserve requirements and advising banks to restrict lending in “hot” sectors, including auto, steel, cement, aluminum and real estate… Data released earlier this month showed the central bank’s broad measure of money supply, M2, rose 13.9 percent on year in September, compared with the central bank’s 17 percent growth target.
I’ve always thought that China will not revalue the yuan until they need revaluation as another tool to slow down their money supply growth and cool their economy. But this collection of data suggests that they may be acheiving those goals without it.