Tomorrow’s Employment Report

Tomorrow morning at 8:30 the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its estimates for the number of people working and unemployed in the US in August. There’s some expectation that the report may not be particularly good, which for me would be a number of new jobs below about 100-125 thousand. Any number bigger than that will be seen as pretty good, but a number much smaller than that will be a disappointment. Note that the median expectation of economists seems to be for an increase of about 150,000 jobs.

There’s also some sense that this may be the piece of economic data that could have the single biggest impact on the presidential election. The figures will be used in the majority of the TV ads Bush and/or Kerry (depending on how the data comes out) run about the economy between now and the election. The figures will be crucial in determining what the Fed will say and do at its next committee meeting on Sept. 21. And the figures, coming right on the heel of the RNC, will either emphasize Bush’s expected remarks tonight that the economy is improving, or make a lie of them.

I’ll bring you the news tomorrow morning.