Swing State Numbers
The latest Gallup/USA Today poll shows Kerry even in Missouri, down 4 in Florida, and up 5 in Ohio — with Nader in the race.(*) Since Gore barely lost in 2000 while carrying none of these states, and Bush seems unlikely to win any states he didn’t carry in 2000 (the possible exception is Michigan, which Gore won 51-46 in 2000, but is so far tighter with Bush at 43 and Kerry at 45), a win in Ohio would basically do the trick for Kerry.
FYI, for a quick explanation of why Bush is doing poorly in Ohio, which he won 50-46 in 2000, see this post.
(*) Two-way race numbers: Bush 50, Kerry 47 in Florida; 48-48 in Missouri; Kerry 51, Bush 45 in Ohio.