Take a look at Kash’s last post (two below this one), which contains yet another great graph.

How could any group of employees be as consistently and dramatically wrong as the administration’s employment forecasters and still keep their jobs?(*)


(*) Ok, so O’Neill, Hubbard and Lindsey are gone, but that’s had no discernible impact on policy-making. Basically, they formulate a hypothesis: tax cuts create a lot of jobs and then the the data turn out inconsistent with that hypothesis. Based on the scientific method, they shoud reject the hypothesis. Instead, they repeated the experiment and got the same result: data inconsistent with the maintained hypothesis. We’re now in the midst of the third iteration of this experiment. I wonder what the result will be? (If they repeat it enough times, the business cycle will eventually give them the result their looking for.)