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The Next “Lost Decade”

by Joseph Joyce

The Next “Lost Decade”

The 1980s were a “lost decade” of economic growth for those developing countries in Latin America that were enveloped in a debt crisis. Many now fear that we are on the verge of another debt crisis in the wake of borrowing by governments to support their economies during the pandemic. A concerted response will be needed to avoid it.

Countries such as Mexico and Brazil had borrowed during the 1970s to finance oil bills that had skyrocketed after OPEC had raised petroleum prices. International banks were happy to recycle the dollars that the oil-exporters had placed on deposit with them. The crisis came when the Federal Reserve under Paul Volcker raised interest rates, and the U.S. experienced back-to-back recessions that lowered the demand for these countries’ exports. It took a decade of negotiations and failed initiatives before the bank debt was refinanced as bonds or written off.

The IMF’s latest Global Financial Stability Report provides data on the recent rise in government debt: “Government debt in emerging markets (excluding China) is expected to reach 61 percent of GDP in 2021, and gross financing needs are anticipated to remain elevated at 13 percent of GDP in 2021, coming off record levels in 2020.” This escalation follows the pre-pandemic period when public debt/GDP levels had already risen in emerging market economies and advanced economies outside Europe.