Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Deal maker in chief…

Lifted by Dan from Robert’s Stochastic thoughts Robert writes: I was reasonably sure that the latest Ruth Marcus column would cause me to have to  revise and update my earlier post declaring her a heroine of Ballance.   She comments on the fact  that Republican representatives live-tweeted snark during the question and answer session with […]

More on the adaptive inflation expectations hypothesis

This post will be long, fairly wonky, and confused.  I am typing, because I just have  to stop playing with FRED and write something.   My claim is that expected inflation over the next 5 (and 10 and 20) years is very similar to actual inflation over the past year.  I think the data generally […]

Taxes and job creators

Via Robert Waldmann Richard Thaler at Bloomberg provides a different take on innovators and job creators: A recurring theme of this year’s presidential campaign is the need to encourage the formation of new businesses. Republicans in general, and Mitt Romney in particular, have stressed that the best way to stimulate such startups is via low […]

Will Obama Ruin the Economy to Ruin the Republicans?

Robert Waldmann notes a decent article defined by a ridiculous title (of course lifted from his musings): 1) Reasonable and reasonably honest conservative list update: Josh Barro is very reasonable and quite honest. But is he still a conservative?  He sure doesn’t always sound like one. 2) About  #1) see an example of the ness […]

Housing wealth effect, Baker, Goldfarb and Waldmann

by Robert Waldmann Everything is possible and I think that Dean Baker just lost a debate with a Washington Post reporter.  Post reporter Zachary A. Goldfarb  wrote The two economists compared what happened in U.S. counties where people had amassed huge debts with those where people had borrowed little. It had long been thought that […]

Politics and specific policies

by Robert Waldmann At Frum forum Justin Green extensively quotes Jeb Golonkin on how conservatism could be much better if conservatives made specific policy proposals.  Sad but true, almost all of the proposals that have been signed into law are by Barack Obama.  This is not a rare event.  While many conservatives stick to slogans, […]

Waldmann’s thoughts on voting districts

by Robert Waldmann I think this is the best post I have read so far on the topic by Kathleen Geier.  Just go read it before reading my comment below. Of course I have my usual comments: Thank you Kathleen Geier  for your excellent post based on good shoe leather (OK leather ear to the phone) reporting.  I […]

Polling, aggregators, and transparency

by Robert Waldmann    What has Nate Silver done for us lately ? This isn’t really about Nate Silver. It is about poll aggregators in general and just as much about the Huffington Post pollster, Real Clear Politics and Talking points Memo as about Silver, Wang Linzer and others who try to estimate outcome probabilities […]

Polling Obsession

The 2012 Presidential is so close just so close that not only do different polls show different results but different averages of polls do. OK it is clear that extremely fancy models such as the fivethirtyeight model which attempt to assign undecideds and use state data to estimate the national vote and vice versa are […]