Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Changes in Inventories

So what’s the deal with inventories, anyway? You may have been wondering a bit about that in the wake of yesterday’s GDP report, in which inventory changes played such an important role; one-third of economic growth in the first quarter of 2005 was simply due to firms building up their stocks of inventories. Studying inventory […]

Bartlett v. Bartlett on Measuring Long-term Deficits

Back in 2003, Bruce Bartlett criticized the Smetters-Gokhale use of present value analysis but now he seems to like such calculations. To be fair, I have used such calculations, while Max Sawicky notes that they look like ginned-up large numbers unless put in the context of the present value of future GDP over the same […]

Jesus Wants You to Pay Your Taxes?

Are you tired of having the radical right preach to us about what God allegedly wants in the political arena? Tax Analysts reports on this story from Sierra Leone: Tax officials in Sierra Leone offended the country’s Christian population after launching an advertising campaign on April 25 that claimed that Jesus Christ wanted them to […]

GDP Growth: First Quarter 2005 Advance Estimate

This morning the BEA reported that its advance estimate of GDP growth in the beginning of 2005 came in somewhat below expectations, which were for about 3.5% growth: Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate […]

Calling CalculatedRisk: John Tamny on Interest Rates and Housing Prices

In my view, CalculatedRisk is the blog’s leading authority on the housing market. Having read the latest from John Tamny, James Grant’s Forbes article is something we might all read as well. But Tamny disagrees with Mr. Grant’s assertion that higher interest rates tend to reduce the value of houses: Though the prime-lending rate rose […]

Durable Goods Orders

I’m not a regular follower of durable goods orders, and I don’t generally pay much attention to whether it goes up or down in any particular month. This morning’s release was slightly more eye-catching than usual, however; durable goods orders have now fallen for three consecutive months, which starts to look more like a trend […]

Asymmetric Information

Shortly after reading PGL’s healthcare post, I came across this in a Wired article, Cracking the Real Estate Code (should be available here on May 5th), by Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner, authors of Freakonomics. Their Wired article describes how markets can go awry in the face of significant asymmetric information, primarily noting that real […]

The Fed as Cheerleader

Has the Fed under Alan Greenspan been so sanguine about the US economy’s potential problems that its behavior verges on the irresponsible? Some economists think so, and their voices seem to be getting louder. For years now Paul Krugman has written that he thinks Greenspan is more of a cheerleader for the Bush administration than […]

Mainstream Press Blows Condi’s Coverup (war on terrorism)

That our new Sec. of State tried to bury the estimate that major world terrorist attacks tripled in 2004 is not news to the blog world. But now MSNBC is running the story via Reuters. Hopefully, a real debate on how best to fight the war on terror will finally begin. Whether this debate gets […]

Health Care Intelligence Failure?

This title was taken from Arnold Kling who is challenging the suggestion from AB and Kash that we do not get that much from all the money we spend on health care as compared to other nations. Arnold writes: That is, I believe that it is likely that, for the most part, Americans receive significantly […]