by Mike Kimel Top Marginal Tax Rates and Real Economic Growth, Part 2 A few weeks I wrote a post looking at the correlation between the top marginal tax rate in a given year and the growth in real GDP per capita over subsequent years. This post is the first of several follow-ups. It will […]
On the blogosphere, there is an interesting debate about whether, when the next recession arrives, interests rates will be high enough that the normal approach of cutting the target federal funds rate will be sufficient. In chronological order David Reifschneider, Jared Bernstein, Paul Krugman and Dean Baker contribute their thoughts (and in the case of […]
“The Original Underclass” I have written on upward mobility several times at AB. This article goes along similar lines of what I have been saying. If you are already upper class, the chances of you dropping down to the lowest level are slim to none. If you are in that first quintile of income, the […]
Of course some MSM journalists are hard working professionals. The Washington Post’s David A. Fahrenthold has worked very hard trying to find evidence, any evidence, of Donald Trump giving his own money away. Farenthold and Rosalind S. Helderman have a genuinely wonderful examination of alleged quid pro quo in which the Clinton’s did something for […]
US political journalism just receive the coup de grace and the Beutler did it. Brian Buetler wrote “Hillary Clinton’s Relationship With the Press Is Broken—and It Can’t Be Fixed.” This doesn’t sound very enthusiastic, but I think the article shows that the problem is much much worse than the title suggests. Beutler asks whose fault […]
In what would be a stunning reversal on an issue central to his candidacy, Donald Trump floated a possible process to allow undocumented immigrants to remain in America in a town hall that aired Wednesday. “No citizenship,” Trump told Fox News’ Sean Hannity in an interview taped Tuesday afternoon in Austin, Texas. “Let me go […]
Which of these models would you trust to evaluate inflation? (quarterly data since 1957) Phillip’s curve… core inflation plotted against unemployment. (link) My model plotting core inflation against corporate profit rates minus a mix of short & long-term nominal rates… (link) Who in their right mind would still talk about the Phillip’s curve after seeing […]
The Phillip’s curve is obsolete. Inflation does not reliably depend on employment. So what other model could we depend on? This one showing core inflation plotted against an aggregate corporate profit rate minus a mix of nominal rates. (FRED data link) Mixed nominal rate = 0.56*Fed rate + 0.44*10-year treasury Here we have quarterly data […]