This is a discussion in a comment thread which I think is worth pulling back. I claimed (as I often do) that interest rates do not have noticeable effects on consumption. Please notice the “noticeable” — it is an appeal to standard econometric analysis of aggregate time series. OK the discussion EMichael January 16, 2015 […]
Table V.B1: Principal Economic Assumptions More numbers!! Comments on process and content more than welcome. Because at AB we are all about the numbers and I just want to give an assist. Update: now linked to better formatted version
Table V.B2: Additional Economic Assumptions Well I am back and working on a new project in anticipation of the release of the 2015 Report this late Spring. The project involves extracting the Tables and Figures from the Social Security Trustees Report, in this case the 2014, and having them individually web accessible as spreadsheeets or […]
Below the previous post on Refining a NGDP target for a policy rate rule, there were comments by Reason regarding real growth of output and the effects of inflation. These are the two components of the Fed rate, which seeks to stabilize inflation and promote full-employment output growth. I thought it would be helpful to […]
This post will lay out a way to incorporate a NGDP target into a policy rate rule, so that the rule steers inflation back to a NGDP target, not to an inflation target. First, the equation for a NGDP target. NGDP target, Nt = real rate of output growth, Lr + desired long-run average core […]
Via Alternet: New data reveals our public—not private—school system is among the best in the world. In fact, except for the debilitating effects of poverty, our public school system may be the best in the world. The most recent data from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) reveal that the U.S. ranked high, relative […]
Larry Summers and Brad DeLong have even more than usually stimulating thoughts about secular stagnation and extremely low interest rates. I notice a strong focus on non residential fixed capital investment. disclaimer: I owe debts I can never repay to both of them, so this post might even be civil. Summers responds to Marc Andreesen […]
A nominal GDP target makes sense. If inflation runs below target for a while, it makes sense for inflation to run over target in the future in order to achieve the desired long run growth to inflation. So how might a policy rule to determine the Fed rate be modified for a NGDP target? A […]
Guest post by Nathan Salminen (is a lawyer and an amateur economic and political researcher. Nathan has been politically active for many years, including working for the Senate Committee on the Judiciary as a law clerk. Nathan currently practices law in New York and runs Politics that work.) Dan here…this is the second part to […]
Dan here…When in Fort Lauderdale, FL to visit a son and his girlfriend this Christmas, I ran into the phenomenon of ‘lots of stuff’ as they furnished their new apartment. Both real estate turnover and ‘used furniture’ were thriving industries, I assume partly from the turnover of ‘snowbirds’ and younger folk offering services to this […]