By Spencer In today’s New York Times business section I read this headline: Weak Dollar Helps Send Profit Down at Oracle As I read the article I found this statement: The company attributed the declines to the effects of a stronger dollar, which makes deals done in other currencies worth less. I wonder which statement […]

By Spencer; The CPI rose 0.1% in May as the core CPI rose 0.1% and energy rose 0.2%. The real significance of the rise in energy prices shows up in this table that shows the composition of real average hourly earnings — the final column in the table. In the fourth quarter real earnings rose […]

By Spencer. I recently ran across an interesting example of how looking at an economic series from different perspectives creates very different conclusions. The original demand collapse at the start of this recession created an inventory problem across virtually all sectors of the goods economy. We now seen to be in a position where the […]

BY SPENCER The employment report appears to report that the rate of job loss is moderating and provides encouraging evidence that the economy probably is not falling as rapidly as it has been. But the evidence is not that clear cut. Payroll employment reported a 345,000 drop in employment, a significantly smaller loss than in […]

By Spencer. We are getting an interesting debate between different economic bloggers today and I thought I would put in my two cents worth. Casey Mulligan at economix began it with an argument that the current recession is not as severe as the 1981-82 recession because that recession was really two recessions and if you […]

By Spencer: The yield curve is strongly positive, and this is getting all kinds of blog comments. They range from Arnold Kling saying “in my view, this is perfectly rational, and it shows that the short-run effect of the fiscal stimulus is negative” To Greg Mankiw saying “that it signals future economic growth. In many […]

This measure says the “Great Recession” is the worse since the Depression. The previous record was a 13% drop in 1958 and 1974. It is now down 13.6% this cycle.

I love this. The consensus expectations was for the core CPI to come in at 0.2% this month. It came in at 0.253%, was rounded up to 0.3%, and the market is selling off on this. Just remember, betting on monthly economic releases is a suckers game created by the bond and stock brokerage houses […]

Chrysler eliminating about a quarter of its dealerships is getting a lot of press, but the press seems to be completely ignoring why Chrysler is doing this. All day CNBC has been talking to Chrysler dealers and not once have I heard them say a word about why Chrysler is doing this. The reason is […]

By Spencer The web is full of comments on the CBO projections of the Obama budget. So I though a slightly different analysis might be appreciated. Most bloggers are comparing the Obama budget to the Bush budget. But I suspect a comparison to the Reagan budget would be more meaningful in that both Obama and […]