This post is partly inspired by “The cracks are already starting to show between Donald Trump and Republicans” by Amber Phillips at The Washington Post. My general impression is that the article mainly shows that cracks are already starting to show between Donald Trump and Donald Trump. More generally, the fact that Trump and the […]
Via (one of) the brillian Waldmans I find a very interesting and actually somewhat reassuring article by Caitlin Owens “Obamacare repeal? More like Obamacare reform”. I strongly recommend reading the article which considerably reduced my fear and loathing. An excerpt To be clear: Republicans will likely call whatever they end up doing Obamacare repeal, especially […]
“Patrick Ruffini is a strategist, thinker, and organizer focused on data and technology’s disruptive impact on politics and business. “ Here is a tweet he just posted (retweets are not necessarily endorsements so don’t blame Barro) In a model to predict the swing to Trump, Black/Latino % in a county is not predictive at all. […]
Sari Horwitz and Ellen Nakashima at the Washington Post report Senior FBI officials were informed about the discovery of new emails potentially relevant to the investigation of Hillary Clinton’s private email server at least two weeks before Director James B. Comey notified Congress, according to federal officials familiar with the investigation. The officials said that […]
Here are some vague thoughts on the state of academic macroeconomic research and how it might be improved*. The current mainstream macroeconmic research program has recently been severely criticized by so many extremely emminent econonmists, that it is hard to consider it the main stream. However, the many efforts to present an alternative approach (including […]
I strongly advise you to read this post by Noah Smith and then click his links and read all of Romer (I have) and Kocherlakota (I haven’t yet but advise myself to do it now). update: Kocherlakota’s post is very brief non-technical and brilliant. I advise you to read it now. end update. Noah recalls […]
Different data journalists have different estimates of the probability that Hillary Clinton will be elected. The numbers will be updates, so I type the current ones before discussing. Five Thirty Eight polls plus 55.7% Five Thirty Eight polls only 57.1 % Daily Kos 63% Upshot 75% Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang) (random drift) 71% (Bayesian) […]
Being born on November 9th, I will get the end of this campaign for my birthday (tough luck Josh Barro of course this also means that I couldn’t vote in 1978 the year I turned 18 (but neither could J Barro so there)). It also means that my astrological sign is scorpio, which is relevant […]
Eminent macro/growth economist Paul Romer denounced business cycle macroeconomics. I strongly advise reading his wonderful paper, which is devastating and funny. I’d also look at Noah Smith’s intelligent discussion. But if you insist, read on.
Just read this: Houdini’s Straightjacket That is all.