Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Matrix or 1984 ?

We have virtually reached the singularity when virtual reality supplants reality. A photo tweeted by the Russian Ministry of Defense Tuesday as “irrefutable” proof that the United States has allied with the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria turned out to be from a video game. Do android phones dream of electoral sheeple ? What […]

Ricardian Equivalence

This is going to be a very long post with independent chapters (I won’t impose by making a series of posts) I. What is “Ricardian Equivalence” The basic idea is that the timing of taxes has no effect on anything, and especially not on consumption/saving choices, because rational economic agents know that the state has […]

A Bit More on Inflation Expectations

I honestly surfed here just to see if anyone was still interested in inflation expectations now that The Fed has shifted from extraordinary efforts to stimulate to normal efforts to take away the punch bowl before workers get uppity. I was pleased to find the post by Bonddad immediately below However, I don’t agree entirely […]

The Phillips Curve is Alive and Well and Living in Europe

What happened to the European Phillips Curve ? Recently many have argued that the Phillips curve has become the Phillips horizontal line. I am old enough to remember when the hot new idea in macroeconomics was that the long run Phillips curve is vertical so inflation varies but unemployment stays near the natural rate and […]

A NAWRU proposal

A NAWRU proposal Marco Fioramanti and I have strongly criticized the European Commission DG EcFin Output Gap working Group estimates of output gaps. I have also written a lot here at angrybearblog This topic is very important, because the output gaps are used to calculate cyclically corrected budget balances which are regulated by the Stability […]

Top Marginal Tax Rates and Economic Growth

Top marginal taxation and economic growth by Santo Milasi and Robert Waldmann has (finally) been published here in Applied Economics ABSTRACT The article explores the relationship between top marginal tax rates on personal income and economic growth. Using a data set of consistently measured top marginal tax rates for a panel of 18 OECD countries […]

Corporate Profit Tax Cuts and Wages: Silly Theory

I jump at a rare chance to disagree with Paul Krugman and as a bonus also with my very good friend Brad DeLong, because Krugman just tweeted that Brad is right Brad is right here: Mankiw et al have clearly made a math error https://t.co/HpyVdoyRCT 1/ — Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) October 24, 2017 update: Krugman […]

Cost Sharing Reductions and the Constitution

Republican Representatives who sued the Obama administration, Judge Rosemarry Collyer who decided they were right, Donald Trump and lawyers representing the Trump administration argue that the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) can not compensate insurance companies for the expence of cost sharing reductions (CSRs) for people with income under 250% of the poverty […]