Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

How did they get so rich ?

I hope and trust that this will be an amusing display of my ignorance. I don’t hope to reach David Graeber’s level   David Graeber: Apple Computers is a famous example: it was founded by (mostly Republican) computer engineers who broke from IBM in Silicon Valley in the 1980s, forming little democratic circles of twenty […]

The Buffett Buffer

This is an almost semi serious proposal suggesting payday lenders could get good publicity. There are many entities with plenty of spare cash. The US Treasury isn’t one of them. I think that the good publicity gained by offering zero interest loans to unpaid federal employees is worth the cost. They are good credit risks […]

Romer & Romer on Taxes

Given the debate about returning to 60s level top marginal tax rate of 70% amazingly re-opened by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, I decided to actually read the Romer and Romer paper (pdf warning) which includes evidence suggesting an even higher rate is optimal. It is a masterpiece, which I won’t try to summarize. Read it. I do […]

Optimal Taxation of Capital Income 2019 (let them Bern).

I wrote a post about optimal taxation of capital income which (the web is sometimes wonderful) was made legible by the blessed [person who choses to remain anonymous]. But that was back in Obama center left 2008. I want to update given what I learned since then and given the appearance of socialist US citizens. […]

The Price of Naltrexone

In The New York Times Abby Goodnough wrote ” she got a Vivitrol (naltrexone) shot but it was so expensive — her co-payment was $600 — that she never got another” !!! This is insane. Naltrexone is an opioid antagonist. It prevents opioids from causing a high (and relieving pain and suppressing coughing and breathing). […]

Twelve Dimensional Chess

Barack Obama just won Gallup’s man most admired by US adults poll for the 11th straight time. Also, in spite of the Republicans’ determined efforts including elimination of the mandate, Healthcare.gov signups are only 4% fewer than last year’s. Finally, I am thinking about “eleven dimensional chess”. This was a joke about Obama and Obamaniacs […]

How much did that bailout cost ?

11 years after the huge financial rescue operation, procrastinators look at the cost to the Treasury. The numbers are gigantic. Also the cost was negative. Saving the financial system and preventing a second great depression was, I think, the most profitable trade in human history by far. Crude accounting suggests this, but there are two […]

The Wizard of Odds

Dorothy was in a strange land and had no idea what would happen next. The good witch of the North said she should follow the scientific method to a sound forecast. Unfortunately, neither she (nor anyone else) explained what exactly the scientific method is. As she wandered down the yellow brick forking path of endless […]

A Micro Founded Model in Which Trade Causes Higher Productivity Growth

The division of labor is limited by the extent of the market. The model is a modified version of the simplified Romer 90 model. The modification is that there is a minimum efficient scale for the production of intermediate goods. Gross output in the growing sector is (sum i = 1 to N of x_i^alpha)L1^(1-alpha) […]

I actually really disagree with Paul Krugman this time

Krugman argues that the Bank of Englands worst case scenario for no deal Brexit is implausibly bad. I agree with his conclusion, but strongly disagree with one argument (on a point which he stresses is quantitatively minor) … the BoE includes some nonstandard effects of trade: they assume that reduced trade (and foreign direct investment) […]