Some of New Deal Democrat’s Weekly Indicators for June 8 – 12

 – by New Deal democrat

My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. “Consumers Back Off – Slightly”

• High-frequency economic indicators remain broadly positive, with strong corporate profits, still-robust consumer spending, and record stock prices supporting an expansionary outlook.

• Long leading indicators are mixed: positive term spreads and profits offset by a worsening leverage index, historically a credit-tightening recession harbinger.

• Short leading indicators are strong, driven by low jobless claims, rebounding manufacturing, and regional Fed indexes, but commodity price spikes signal supply-side risks.

• Coincident data show strong consumer activity, but a little less robust than recently, though elevated debt and weakening tax withholding warrant monitoring for potential inflection.

There was little change this week, but restaurant reservations – the first expense I would expect stretched consumers to cut back on – did slacken a little bit. And withholding tax payments over the past four weeks barely kept pace with YoY inflation.

Tariff payments

• May 2026 vs. 2025: $23.5 B vs. $24.0 B (-$0.5 B).
• June 1-10, 2026 vs. 2025: $2.6 B vs. $2.3 B (+$0.3 B).

I inaugurated this measure last spring after “Liberation Day.” The above information comes directly from the Daily Treasury Statement. These fees are either absorbed by the importer or passed on to the consumer, or some proportion of each, and are removed from potential consumption on other items.

As per my above comments, the regional Fed reports indicate that these tariffs have had a substantial upward impact on prices paid for materials, with only about half of those increases – but nevertheless half – being passed on to consumers.

As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to the state of the economy, and reward me with a penny or two for my efforts collecting and organizing the data for you.

Oil prices and usage (from the E.I.A.)

• Down -$5.89 to $84.38 w/w, up +42.4% YoY ($54.98 – $119.48).
• Gas prices down -$0.15 to $4.15 w/w, up +$1.04 YoY.
• Usage 4-week average down -0.5% YoY.

(Information can be found at “This Week In Petroleum” at the E.I.A.’s website.)

Oil prices first declined into the bottom 1/3rd of their 3-year range and so turned positive late in 2024 and declined even further in 2025. Late in February they made a new 3 year low, which was very positive for consumers. But after the start of the Iran war, they rose to yet another three-year high, which, needless to say, was negative. They have backed off of their worst levels but remain a negative.

Gas prices also recently made new 3-year lows, but that totally reversed with the war on Iran. Gas prices remain elevated compared with their recent new three-year range, and so are negative.

In 2024, mileage driven had been generally negative. It turned neutral and then positive early in 2025 but recently turned back down. Earlier this year it had generally been slightly positive, before declining back to negative last week. This week it was again in the neutral range.

Note: given this measure’s extreme volatility, I believe the best measure is against their 3 year average.

Summation:

Once again there was little change this week, and all time frames remained positive.

Among the long leading indicators, very positive term spreads in the bond market plus Booming corporate profits have been the stars of the show. But the older, “OG” forecasting systems regard the big increase in yields, especially towards the longer end, as a negative “bear steepener.” And the leverage index, which is the first harbinger of credit becoming tight, continued to worsen again this week, at a level that has more often than not meant a recession is on the horizon in about 12 months.

The short leading indicators are also very positive on the surface, driven by record stock price highs and very low new jobless claims. Additionally, manufacturing-related indicators like the regional Fed indexes – including, more recently, services – have continued to rebound. I continue to be concerned about skyrocketing commodity prices, which are almost certainly about supply shortages, not a surge in demand, so I recommend taking those as negatives. Consumers did finally cut back on purchasing gasoline, but it is not yet a sign of capitulation.

The coincident indicators continue to show strong consumer spending. Tax withholding did weaken this week.

So long as consumers do not cut back, the economy remains expansionary. This past week’s CPI ordinarily would strongly suggest a recession is close, but consumers have been running up debt on their credit cards. We won’t see an update on spending and saving until the end of the months.