Upward Revision to GDP and a rise in Home Sales Plus a Positive Outlook for Future Growth
Brief Review of the Economy: Press Release: US Leading Indicators. LEI for the US Increased in November CEI also Improving.
LEI
Three positive occurrences, today December 20, 2024. Future economic activity increased 0.3 in November for the first monthly gain since 2022, on strength in the stock market, decreasing unemployment claims, and improvement in building permits.
Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US increased by 0.3% in November 2024 to 99.7 (2016=100), nearly reversing its 0.4% decline in October. Over the six-month period between May and November 2024, the LEI declined by 1.6%, slightly less than its 1.9% decline over the previous six months (November 2023 to May 2024).
“The US LEI rose in November for the first time since February 2022,” according to Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.
“A rebound in building permits, continued support from equities, improvement in average hours worked in manufacturing, and fewer initial unemployment claims boosted the LEI in November. It’s worth noting gains in building permits were not widespread geographically or by building type. They were mainly in the Northeast and Midwest, and on buildings with 5+ units rather than single-family dwellings.
CEI
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US improved by 0.1% in November 2024 to 113.0 (2016=100)—the same rate of growth as each month between July and October. As a result, the CEI increased by 0.6% in the six-month period ending November 2024, slightly higher than its 0.5% growth over the previous six-month period. The CEI’s component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. Personal income less transfer payments was the highest positive contributor to CEI, based on estimates for November, followed by payroll employment, and manufacturing and trade sales, all of which offset the third consecutive decline in industrial production.
But as we all know. it was the anticipation of the next administration taking control.