Early Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Numerics for November 2024
Just some economic analysis about good economic growth in the month of November 2024. Something the public seemed to have missed along the way. 2023 and 2024 appears to have had good growth even with high Fed rates. See chart below.
Commerce Data Show Strong Economic Gains Due to Americans Making and Spending More November 2024 Commerce Department Blog.
The U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported November 2024, real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2024. Growth was in large part due to Americans making and spending more. Consumer spending increased 3.7%, the most since early 2023. Spending was attributed to rising incomes.
The economy has grown 12.6% under the Biden-Harris Administration, with the lowest average unemployment of any Administration in 50 years, and 16 million jobs created. This demonstrates stronger economic growth than during other presidential terms this century.
The U.S. economy grew 2.7 percent in the third quarter of 2024, compared to the same quarter a year ago. The increase in September’s current-dollar personal income primarily reflected an increase in compensation. The increase in real GDP for the third quarter of 2024 primarily reflected increases in consumer spending.
In addition, investments in manufacturing continue to boom. During the first nine months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,621.4 billion, 7.3 percent above the $1,511.4 billion for the same period in 2023, according to the latest estimates from the US. Census Bureau. Driven by the building of houses and factories, annual manufacturing construction spending is a large contributor to GDP.
Bureau of Economic Analysis News Release; GDP, Third Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2024 (table 1), according to the “advance” estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent.
The GDP estimate released today (November 4, 2024) is based on incomplete source data and may be subject to further revision by the source agency (refer to “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 2). The “second” estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete source data, will be released on November 27, 2024.
The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending (table 2). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both goods and services. Within goods, the leading contributors were other nondurable goods (led by prescription drugs) and motor vehicles and parts. Within services, the leading contributors were health care (led by outpatient services) as well as food services and accommodations. The increase in exports primarily reflected an increase in goods (led by capital goods, excluding automotive). The increase in federal government spending was led by defense spending. The increase in imports primarily reflected an increase in goods (led by capital goods, excluding automotive).
Compared to the second quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and a larger decrease in residential fixed investment. These movements were partly offset by accelerations in exports, consumer spending, and federal government
spending. Imports accelerated.
Current-dollar GDP increased 4.7 percent at an annual rate, or $333.2 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $29.35 trillion. In the second quarter, GDP increased 5.6 percent, or $392.6 billion (tables 1 and 3). The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the second quarter (table 4). The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 1.5 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.2 percent, compared with an increase of 2.8 percent.
Personal Income
Current-dollar personal income increased $221.3 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $315.7 billion in the second quarter. The increase primarily reflected an increase in compensation (table 8).
Disposable personal income increased $166.0 billion, or 3.1 percent, in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $260.4 billion, or 5.0 percent, in the second quarter. Real disposable personal income increased by income increased 1.6 percent, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent.
Personal saving was $1.04 trillion in the third quarter, compared with $1.13 trillion in the second quarter. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with 5.2 percent in the second quarter.
Source Data for the Advance Estimate;
The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency. Information on the source data and key assumptions used in the advance estimate is provided in a Technical Note and a detailed “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file posted with the release. The “second” estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 27, 2024.
Manufacturing Booms Thanks to Biden-Harris Administration Investments, U.S. Department of Commerce