Maybe Lower Oil Costs?
Having greater oil reserves gives the UAE leverage to strike out on its own. The UAE nation has not been supplying more oil due to imposed restrictions by Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries who act as one exporting group. Or simply stating there is more capacity than demand. And OPEC wishes to keep oil prices high.
This should be interesting. Maybe with greater consideration by the oil cartel, the UAE would return. If one breaks loose from the group, all will suffer as the monopoly in that area will be broken. I suspect the UAE will return after getting some concessions. Just an opinion . . .
Reporting by the Bangkok Post, 28 April 2026
“UAE quits Opec in blow to global oil cartel”
DUBAI – The United Arab Emirates said on Tuesday it was quitting Opec and Opec+, dealing a heavy blow to the oil exporting groups and their de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, at a time when the Iran war has caused a historic energy shock and unsettled the global economy.
The loss of the UAE, a longstanding member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, could create disarray and weaken the group. Opec has usually sought to show a united front despite frequent internal disagreements over a range of issues from geopolitics to production quotas.
Prior to the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the UAE was the third-largest producer in Opec, with output averaging 3.4 million barrels per day, behind Saudi Arabia (10.1 million) and Iraq (4.2 million).
The move by the UAE could be negative for oil prices as it wants to produce more oil, and being outside the group would allow it to do so, said Jan Von Gerich, chief markets analyst with the Finnish bank Nordea.
When the Iran conflict ends, Opec will not be able to control prices the way it did in the past, he added.
Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, said the exit should be positive for consumers and the broader global economy.
“This opens the door for the UAE to gain global market share when the geopolitical situation normalises,” she said.
Policy Decision
UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei told Reuters the decision was taken after a careful look at the regional power’s energy strategies. Asked whether the UAE consulted with Saudi Arabia, he said it did not raise the issue with any other country.
“This is a policy decision, it has been done after a careful look at current and future policies related to level of production,” said the minister.
Jorge Leon, an analyst at the energy intelligence firm Rystad, said the withdrawal of the UAE marks a “significant shift” for Opec.
“Alongside Saudi Arabia, it is one of the few members with meaningful spare capacity — the mechanism through which the group exerts market influence,” he said.
“Outside the group, the UAE would have both the incentive and the ability to increase production, raising broader questions about the sustainability of Saudi Arabia’s role as the market’s central stabilizer — and pointing to a potentially more volatile oil market.”
Opec Gulf producers have already been struggling to ship exports through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint between Iran and Oman through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes, because of Iranian threats and attacks against vessels.
Bangkok Post, “UAE quits Opec in blow to global oil cartel”
“Getting more oil from Saudi Arabia or the UAE could require U.S. concessions,” New Hampshire Public Radio