The cat rescue myth and vaccines
My dad, an MIT-trained chemical engineer, was a practical man. He was scornful of efforts to rescue cats out of trees. His response was: “Look around; how many cat skeletons do you see in trees.”
Setting aside the merits of the cat rescue argument, the larger point is to use critical thinking to assess whether ambient reality justifies your fears.
In the case of vaccine safety conspiracy theories—vaccines kill or cause RFK Jr voice—the fact is that billions of humans all over the planet have been vaccinated. So where are the bodies? How come everybody I meet—including me—doesn’t have the creaky RFK Jr voice?
Look, vaccines ± thimerosal and ± aluminum adjuvants have been given to billions of humans by now. Hundreds of millions of pregnant women have taken acetaminophen during pregnancy. If these things cause autism, everybody you know, including you, would be autistic.
Can I “prove” that vaccines *can’t* cause autism or JFK Jr voice? No, I can’t. But that’s the wrong question.
(a) Science doesn’t deal in proof; it deals in the weight of evidence. The weight of evidence, based on billions of data points, is that vaccines are safe and effective;
(b) It’s impossible to prove a negative. But given the experiences of billions of vaccinated people, the burden of proof that vaccines kill or cause RFK Jr voice is on those claiming that they do.
So look around yourself. It’s not because folks are wearing Big Pharma goggles. The reason you don’t see these things is because . . . wait for it . . . they didn’t happen. Anti-vax conspiracy theories demand you ignore the evidence of your eyes and ears. Like cat skeletons in trees, they just aren’t there.
Ask questions, peeps, but don’t forget to listen for answers.
Setting aside the merits of the cat rescue argument, the larger point is to use critical thinking to assess whether ambient reality justifies your fears.
In the case of vaccine safety conspiracy theories—vaccines kill or cause RFK Jr voice—the fact is that billions of humans all over the planet have been vaccinated. So where are the bodies? How come everybody I meet—including me—doesn’t have the creaky RFK Jr voice?
Look, vaccines ± thimerosal and ± aluminum adjuvants have been given to billions of humans by now. Hundreds of millions of pregnant women have taken acetaminophen during pregnancy. If these things cause autism, everybody you know, including you, would be autistic.
Can I “prove” that vaccines *can’t* cause autism or JFK Jr voice? No, I can’t. But that’s the wrong question.
(a) Science doesn’t deal in proof; it deals in the weight of evidence. The weight of evidence, based on billions of data points, is that vaccines are safe and effective;
(b) It’s impossible to prove a negative. But given the experiences of billions of vaccinated people, the burden of proof that vaccines kill or cause RFK Jr voice is on those claiming that they do.
So look around yourself. It’s not because folks are wearing Big Pharma goggles. The reason you don’t see these things is because . . . wait for it . . . they didn’t happen. Anti-vax conspiracy theories demand you ignore the evidence of your eyes and ears. Like cat skeletons in trees, they just aren’t there.
Ask questions, peeps, but don’t forget to listen for answers.
Can the flu vaccine cause spasmodic dysphonia? You can’t prove that it does not.
What you can prove is that billions of flu vaccine injections have been administered over the past 40 years. Statistics also show that only a few thousand people are afflicted with spasmodic dysphonia. Conclusion–you’re more likely to get struck by lightning than be struck with spasmodic dysphonia as a result of a flu shot.
Would that silence people struck by a rare disease, people who are looking for answers? Probably not. After all, people are spooked by lightning, which is not all that logical. But victims could at least be assured that they have been heard, that shit can happen, even though the odds are vanishingly small. Simply taking the absolutist phrase, like “the balance of evidence shows that vaccines are safe” just comes across as dismissive stonewalling.
In search of proof, researchers could go farther and take a statistically valid sampling of those afflicted with spasmodic dysphonia and delve into their medical histories–a few hundred cases at most–to try to connect the dots. It would probably cost less than one of those repetitive, redundant studies into the effects of coffee. But frankly, it’s probably not worth it. What might be worthwhile would be to flag diagnoses of uncommon diseases along with the medical and drug histories of those afflicted. Over time researchers could let AI try to connect the dots.
Personally, I take all recommended vaccinations and have had no ill effects. However, I increasingly pay attention to the side-effects of medicines doctors prescribe, since I know from personal experience that unusual reactions to these drugs, generally considered safe, are much more common than I ever imagined. Fortunately, none of these reactions have been dire.
@John,
Simply taking the factual statement, like “the balance of evidence shows that vaccines are safe” just comes across as professional and responsible.
FIFY
@John,
“Conclusion–you’re more likely to get struck by lightning than be struck with spasmodic dysphonia as a result of a flu shot.”
Wrong. The conclusion is that you’re more likely to get struck by lightning than be struck with spasmodic dysphonia *following* a flu shot. Correlation ≠ causation. There is zero evidence that anyone is struck with spasmodic dysphonia as a *result* of a flu shot.