Medicaid’s Role in Small Towns and Rural Areas

In analyzing the Medicaid cuts under consideration by House Republicans for inclusion in budget reconciliation legislation, it is often easier to examine each specific proposal in isolation. But singular reviews does not paint a complete picture

It is important to take a step back and look at how these proposals would interact with each other and the impact on various portions of the country.  In doing so, it is certain the Medicaid cuts being discussed would result in 40 states and the District of Columbia ending the Medicaid expansion over time. The end result would be taking away coverage from nearly 21 million low-income people including parents, people with disabilities, near-elderly adults, and adults with chronic conditions.

This particular piece by Georgetown discusses the importance of Medicaid for rural communities. However, it does miss one key element and that is the support it renders to rural hospitals and clinics. I will have to find a piece to highlight those issues.

Key Findings

  • In six states, at least half of children living in small towns and rural areas are covered by Medicaid/CHIP. These include New Mexico (59.9%), Louisiana (57.7%), Arizona (55.9%), Florida (51.9%), South Carolina (51.1%), and Arkansas (50.5%).
  • In fifteen states, at least one-fifth of non-elderly adults living in small towns and rural areas are covered by Medicaid. These include Arizona (35.9%), New York (33.9%), New Mexico (31.6%), Louisiana (30.2%), Kentucky (28.5%), West Virginia (25.5%), Oregon (24.9%), Washington (24.4%), Montana (22.2%), Arkansas (22.0%), Maine (21.9%), Vermont (21.7%), Massachusetts (21.5%), Michigan (21.2%), and Alaska (20.4%).
  • Residents of rural counties with a large share of American Indian or Alaska Native residents and tribal lands are more likely to rely on Medicaid for coverage for all age groups, including seniors.
  • Large reductions in federal Medicaid funding would put the residents of small towns and rural communities and their health care systems at serious risk.

Findings

As shown in Figure 1, in 2023 40.6% of children living in small towns and rural areas were enrolled in Medicaid/CHIP as compared to 38.2% in metro areas. This is the largest differential in the examined populations. The vast majority of states (38 of 48) have similar or larger shares of children in small towns/rural areas covered by Medicaid/CHIP than in Metro areas. See Appendix Table 1 for state-by-state analysis.

Similarly, non-elderly adults are covered by Medicaid at higher rates in rural areas as compared to metro areas (18.3% v. 16.3%), with 40 states out of 48 showing similar or higher rates of Medicaid enrollment in rural areas/small towns. See Appendix Table 2.

Seniors in rural areas and small towns do not disproportionately rely on Medicaid (15.8% v. 17.0%).2 It is unclear why seniors would have a different pattern overall. However, looking at state-specific patterns, in the majority of states — 29 states — larger shares of seniors in small towns and rural areas were enrolled in Medicaid than in metro counties, including in Arizona where 46.1% of seniors in small towns and rural areas were enrolled in Medicaid as compared to 13.1% in metro counties. See Appendix Table 3.

A Closer Look at Where Children’s Medicaid Coverage in Rural Areas and Small Towns is Especially High

As Table 1 shows, in six states (NM, LA, AZ, FL, SC, AR) half or more of the children living in small towns and rural areas are covered by Medicaid/CHIP. A closer look at the counties nationwide with the highest share of children covered by Medicaid/CHIP finds that the top 20 rural counties in the country have between 62 and 73 percent of children enrolled. These counties are primarily found in the six states listed above along with Humphreys County in Mississippi and Wolfe County, Kentucky.

Table 2 depicts the states with the largest differential in coverage rates for children in rural areas as opposed to metro counties with Arizona and Florida leading the way. For states in Table 2, cuts in Medicaid funding will likely have an outsized impact on families living in rural communities and small towns.

Finally, Table 3 shows the states with the largest number of children in small towns and rural areas enrolled in Medicaid/CHIP, with Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, Kentucky, and Mississippi leading the way.

A Closer Look at Where Adult Medicaid Coverage in Rural Areas and Small Towns is Especially High

As Table 4 shows, there are 15 states where at least one fifth or more of non-elderly adults in small towns/rural areas are covered by Medicaid. Arizona and New York have more than one-third of rural adults covered by Medicaid. A look at the top 20 rural counties nationwide for adult enrollment in Medicaid is available in Appendix Table 5; all of these counties are in the 15 states shown in Table 3.

Table 5 illustrates the states where the importance of Medicaid/CHIP to adults in small towns/rural areas is even more pronounced as compared to metro areas and includes states that have expanded Medicaid coverage for adults under the Affordable Care Act as well as some that have not (TX, SC). Arizona again leads the way with New York, Washington, Texas, and Kentucky following. For states in Table 5, cuts to federal Medicaid funding will likely have an outsized impact on rural communities.

Impact on Native People

Our analysis finds that Medicaid continues to play an outsize role as a coverage source for people living in counties with large American Indian and Alaska Native populations – especially in rural areas and small towns. As Figure 3 shows, half of children living in rural AI/AN areas (including tribal lands) are covered by Medicaid/CHIP. Non-elderly adults and seniors in rural areas are also more likely to be covered by Medicaid in AI/AN areas.

Conclusion

Rural communities face greater challenges than metro areas in keeping their health care infrastructure strong enough to support rural residents’ health needs. American Indian and Alaska Native people are also at grave risk; Medicaid is a key insurer protecting these families from medical debt.

Large cuts to Medicaid currently being contemplated by Congress pose very severe threats to rural communities. Hospitals and other providers in rural communities are already operating on tighter margins and disproportionately rely on Medicaid for their patient revenues. Families and non-elderly adults in rural areas rely on Medicaid for their health insurance at higher rates than those living in metro areas, underscoring that large cuts will have dire consequences for communities that are already struggling.

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